Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
705 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
This afternoon's round of convection has largely moved east of the
forecast area, but new development is underway as of 7pm roughly
along the I-20 corridor in the presence of low-level moisture flux
convergence. As additional mid/upper-level moisture and ascent
arrive overnight, a blossoming of convection should occur across
North Texas which will shift southward with time heading into
tomorrow. Most trends from the previous short term forecast remain
on track. The one main adjustment made with this issuance was to
lag the PoP trends by about 3 hours based on recent high-res
guidance which suggests a slower southward advance tomorrow
morning. The main flood threat still looks to be overnight through
the morning rush hour in North Texas, and midday/afternoon for
areas south of the I-20 corridor. No Flood Watch configuration
changes were made with this evening's forecast.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tomorrow/

A flood watch remains in effect for North Texas through tomorrow
morning with little change made to the ongoing forecast message.
While much of today's activity has been showery with only a few
embedded thunderstorms, diurnal destabilization should help
enhance any ongoing convection and allow for new development of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There are a couple prime
convective initiation locations...first is across the eastern
half of the forecast area as a quick moving outflow boundary races
northeast. Expect a broken cluster of storms to develop along the
leading edge of this boundary. The next focus area is along a
remnant cold pool that has largely become the effective cold front
currently analyzed roughly along or just north of the I-20 and
I-30 corridors. Weak confluence along this boundary should provide
sufficient ascent to develop scattered showers and storms over
the next few hours. Today's activity will be largely hit or miss
given the lack of a stronger synoptic ascent. With that being
said, warm cloud depths are around 15-15.5 kft and the observed
PWAT was 2.03" on the FWD sounding. With moisture continuing to
surge into the area...any storm that develops over the next 24-36
hours will be very efficient rain producers and heavily influenced
by the warm-rain process.

Stronger synoptic ascent will move into the area tonight as a low
pressure system deepens over the Big Country and moves east late
tonight and tomorrow. Expect a gradual increase in precipitation
coverage by midnight, with a general west to east progression of
the heavy rain axis. There will likely be two axes of heavy rain
develop tonight; one following a more north-south orientation
along and ahead of a surface trough extending south out of the
low and another following a west-east orientation draped across
North Texas. The west-east axis should be near the current stalled
boundary that will effectively become the warm front tonight when
low level warm advection ramps up. Precipitation will be most
widespread in the early morning hours tomorrow...roughly saddling
daybreak by several hours. This will result in a messy Monday
morning commute, particularly for the Metroplex and other Metro
areas within the CWA. Over the course of the day Monday, the heavy
rain threat will shift southeast in the vicinity of a slow moving
cold front expected to exit the forecast area late in the
afternoon or tomorrow evening. The flood watch may need to be
extended to include this threat in the next several hours as new
data arrives. Further north...precip will become more isolated
by tomorrow afternoon dry air and subsidence air help stabilize
the airmass.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022/
/Monday Night Onward/

Unsettled weather and below normal temperatures will continue
across North and Central Texas through the weekend, with a lull in
activity expected for portions of the region toward the end of
the work week.

By Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary will approach Central Texas
and result in a southward shift of the highest PoPs and rainfall
amounts. Precipitation chances will likely come to an end for
areas along the Red River by Tuesday afternoon and evening as
subsidence increases, but will likely linger through Tuesday night
along and south of I-20. Otherwise, the increased cloud cover and
rain chances should result in highs mostly in the 80s region
wide.

The weak boundary, in combination with high PW values, will be
the main driver for daily precipitation chances through the end of
the work week. There are indications that the boundary will stall
south of our region, which would result in lower rain chances
across Central Texas, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.
Meanwhile, subsidence will continue to increase across the
northern half of the region as the mid level ridge builds westward
and should keep most of the region rain-free with highs warming
into the low 90s. An upper level trough will dig into the Plains
by the end of the work week and result in continued rain/storm
chances Friday and into the weekend across the region.

Garcia

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Numerous aviation impacts are expected during the next 24 hours.
Scattered convective development is underway across D10 as of 00z,
and some of this activity may impact TAF sites intermittently
through the rest of the evening and overnight. The most
widespread TSRA at the D10 airports is expected to occur tomorrow
morning, mainly from about sunrise through noon. Waco's most
likely affected time period will be a few hours later, closer to
midday and into the afternoon. All rainfall during this time frame
will have the capability of reducing vsbys to IFR. Aside from
direct convective impacts, low cigs are also forecast to
overspread much of North Texas tonight which could persist well
into tomorrow. While these cigs may be occasionally interrupted by
mechanical mixing from nearby convection, predominantly MVFR/IFR
cigs are forecast from this evening through at least 18z tomorrow.
Otherwise, an east wind will prevail through tonight, until a
steady veering to northeast and eventually north winds occurs in
the presence of an approaching surface low tomorrow morning.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  82  72  85  73 /  90 100  50  50  20
Waco                75  86  73  88  72 /  80  90  70  60  30
Paris               72  78  70  83  69 /  90  90  50  50  20
Denton              72  82  70  86  70 /  90 100  40  50  20
McKinney            71  80  70  84  70 /  90 100  50  50  20
Dallas              74  82  72  85  73 /  90 100  50  50  20
Terrell             73  81  72  84  71 /  90 100  60  60  20
Corsicana           75  84  72  85  72 /  90  90  70  60  30
Temple              74  86  72  88  71 /  60  80  70  60  30
Mineral Wells       72  84  70  88  70 /  90 100  40  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>134.

Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
TXZ135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
332 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain are expected
tonight, particularly along and north of I-20. Heavy rainfall may
result in flooding. A few of the storms may contain gusty winds and
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Additional heavy rainfall on Monday and Monday night will maintain
the flood threat. Daily thunderstorm chances will persist throughout
the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
448 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

TXZ106-107-212215-
Hopkins TX-Delta TX-
448 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hopkins
and Delta Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Sulphur Springs to near
Como. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sulphur Springs, Cooper, Como, Cooper Lake Park Doctors Creek, Cooper
Lake Park South Sulphur and Tira.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 9540 3328 9582 3348 9571 3347 9568
      3349 9562 3348 9560 3347 9559 3348 9556
      3345 9553 3345 9548 3343 9546 3343 9544
      3339 9538 3338 9531 3307 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 213DEG 24KT 3328 9573 3308 9544

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

..speg.