Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
922 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight/

Tonight's severe weather threat remains the primary focus in the
short-term forecast period with the greatest risk for severe
weather located across North Texas through 06Z (1AM CDT Tuesday).

Deep convection initiated in western North Texas this afternoon
within the destabilized buoyant sector that extends through the
region. The evening sounding from Ft Worth shows the mid-level
capping inversion that led to a generally rain-free day across
North and Central Texas has undergone erosion through the
afternoon as the upstream trough over the Southwest U.S. shifts
eastward into the Plains. Surface observations showed the quasi-
stationary front remained stretched across south-central OK into
Northwest TX. The convection that developed along this boundary
will be the primary source of our severe weather threat tonight.

Initially isolated supercells formed into clusters with additional
upscale growth ongoing in a moderately unstable and weakly capped/
uncapped environment. The resulting QLCS, which is sweeping east-
southeast across North Texas, including the DFW Metroplex, is
expected to push east of the region around or just after midnight.
All modes of severe weather, including broad regions of strong to
severe straight-line winds, large hail, and tornadoes, are
possible within the main cluster of convection.

While tonight's severe weather threats are the most pressing
hazards, there is the potential for isolated minor flooding
concerns to develop generally north and northeast of the DFW
Metroplex where periods of heavy rainfall and storm training are
most likely to occur. MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and 1.5-2.0+"
PWATs will support heavy rain while soils in this area are not
completely dry, receiving 0.5-2.0" of rain in the last 3 days.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 221 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A cold front will be on North & Central Texas's doorstep at the
start of the period, and should bring much breezier conditions
with it. The front should be through most, if not all, of the
forecast area by Wednesday morning and it's passage should be
quite noticeable as wind speeds will increase to 20 - 25 mph with
the potential for gusts up to 45 mph with the front. Compared to
a warm Tuesday, Wednesday will be much milder after the frontal
passage with highs topping off in the upper 60s/low 70s along the
Red River to the mid 70s across portions of Central Texas.

A weaker front arrives late Wednesday/early Thursday, and the
continued cold air advection will promote an even cooler end to
the work week. Morning lows will drop into the upper 30s to mid
40s, ranging between 5 and 15 degrees below normal. While wind
speeds aren't expected to be as high Thursday and Friday, it will
still remain breezy thanks to the strengthening high pressure and
upper level ridging across the western U.S. along with a stout
upper level low dropping southeast over the Great Lakes region.
The aforementioned ridging across the western United States will
shift eastward heading into the weekend as the rain-free
conditions continue. Higher heights building in and the resultant
increased subsidence will mean a warming trend for temperatures,
climbing into the 70s and 80s Saturday and Sunday.

Although rainfall is anticipated for much of the area this evening
and tonight, elevated fire weather conditions will likely return
towards the end of the week and over the weekend. Temperatures will
sit around 5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday and Friday which
will help limit the fire weather threat somewhat, but the increased
winds and much drier airmass in place will still result in some
fire weather concerns. These specific areas will be largely dependent
on which areas receive better rainfall in the short term. A
widespread fire weather threat is expected over the weekend as
fuels will begin drying out more with warmer temperatures.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The main aviation concerns this evening include the potential for
convective impacts through 0600Z at DFW Metroplex airports and
0800Z at Waco and low cigs through Tuesday morning.

Convection that developed along a stalled front across south-
central OK into Northwest TX will move across North Texas tonight,
merging into a large complex as it approaches the the Interstate
35 corridor. The most likely times for storms at the Metroplex TAF
sites will be between 02Z and 04Z. Waco will have the best storm
chances between 06 and 08Z. Storms will exit to the east before
sunrise Tuesday, but MVFR ceilings will linger through at least
mid morning.

A south to southeast wind will continue tonight with a shift to
the west as the line of storms moves through with stronger wind
gusts up to 35 knots possible. Behind the line of storms, winds
should return to the south with speeds in 8-12 knot range through
daybreak.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  87  57  74  47 /  90   0   0   0   0
Waco                60  91  58  74  47 /  80   0   0   0   0
Paris               57  80  55  71  45 / 100   0   5   5   0
Denton              55  86  52  73  42 / 100   0   0   0   0
McKinney            58  84  55  72  44 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dallas              61  86  57  73  48 / 100   0   0   0   0
Terrell             59  83  56  72  45 /  90   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           62  85  58  74  47 /  90   5   0   0   0
Temple              61  91  58  76  45 /  70   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       55  91  52  74  42 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
856 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-060200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
856 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of the
region tonight. All modes of severe weather are possible with large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible, especially with
more discrete storms. Locally heavy rainfall between 1 to 2 inches,
with isolated heavier amounts are possible tonight across eastern
North Texas. This may cause instances of minor urban and/or small
stream flooding. Flash flooding is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely tonight across North Texas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
737 PM CDT MON APR 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             5 N SAINT JO            33.77N 97.52W
04/04/2022  M1.00 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER HAIL 5 MILES NORTH OF SAINT JO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 PM CDT MON APR 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             8 N BONHAM              33.71N 96.18W
04/04/2022  M1.75 INCH       FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL HAIL 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAVENNA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
822 PM CDT MON APR 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     LIGHTNING        3 NE DECATUR            33.26N 97.55W
04/04/2022                   WISE               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TANK BATTERY CAUGHT FIRE AFTER BEING STRUCK
            BY LIGHTNING.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
841 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

TXZ115-050215-
Stephens TX-
841 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Stephens County
through 915 PM CDT...

At 841 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crystal Falls, or near Breckenridge, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Breckenridge, Necessity, Crystal Falls and Us-
180 Near The Shackelford-Stephens County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3282 9910 3296 9909 3295 9858 3263 9858
      3262 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 251DEG 27KT 3282 9887

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
848 PM CDT MON APR 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             5 NE RHOME              33.10N 97.41W
04/04/2022  M1.50 INCH       WISE               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HALF DOLLAR HAIL IN NEW FAIRVIEW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
855 PM CDT MON APR 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             4 WNW JUSTIN            33.11N 97.36W
04/04/2022  M1.50 INCH       DENTON             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HALF DOLLAR HAIL 1 MILE NORTH OF PROPWASH
            AIRPORT.

&&