Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

929 
WWUS53 KFSD 090840
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
340 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022

SDC053-090915-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220509T0915Z/
Gregory SD-
340 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR GREGORY COUNTY...

At 340 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles south of Dallas to 11 miles southwest of
Herrick to 11 miles southwest of Naper, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Gregory, Burke, Bonesteel, Dallas, Herrick, St. Charles and Fairfax. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sioux Falls.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 9954 4337 9953 4337 9910 4333 9908
      4325 9897 4324 9889 4316 9887 4313 9876
      4300 9884 4300 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 225DEG 42KT 4306 9952 4299 9934 4287 9928 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Dux

086 
WWUS53 KFSD 090858
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
358 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022

SDC053-090915-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220509T0915Z/
Gregory SD-
358 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR GREGORY COUNTY...

At 358 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Gregory to near St. Charles to Naper, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Gregory, Burke, Bonesteel, Dallas, Herrick, St. Charles and Fairfax. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sioux Falls.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 9954 4337 9953 4337 9910 4333 9908
      4325 9897 4324 9889 4316 9887 4313 9876
      4300 9884 4300 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 232DEG 44KT 4323 9947 4312 9910 4298 9907 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Dux

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1105 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

GOES-16 early this afternoon shows a broad area of stratus lingering
near and east of the I-29 corridor. Expect this area to regress back
westward through the evening hours as low level WAA increases in
advance of the approaching CO Low.

Hi-res guidance continues to support an area of showers and storms
developing in western and central SD this evening, but this activity
should skirt just west of the forecast area. The bigger impact will
be drizzle and patchy fog spreading north with WAA and stratus
overnight into early Monday as the associated warm front progresses
northward.

Additionally, potential remains for a few isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms from midnight through 6am or so. The most
favorable atmosphere for severe wx will reside north of I-90 as
the warm front lifts through. Plentiful deep layer shear aided by
destabilizing air fed in by a strong LLJ will bring 1000-2000 J/kg
of MUCAPE, making development of elevated storms possible. The
main threats will be hail up to quarter size and isolated damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph with steep mid level lapse rates and
isolated DCAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg.

Main impact in the daylight hours Monday will be the return of
the gusty winds as a very strong, progressive sfc low tracks
through the region, inducing a tight sfc pressure gradient.
Further complicating matters is a strong LLJ at the top 1% of the
NAEFS climatology bringing potential to mix 35-50 mph gusts down
Monday morning across northwest IA and parts of southwest MN ahead
of the sfc low. Issued a Wind Advisory for this portion of the
region, though the timing may need to be adjusted on the back end
depending on how long gusts persist into the afternoon.

Expect stratus to initially blanket much of the region around
sunrise, but drier air should erode this through the morning from
south to north as the sfc low departs northeastward. Efficient post-
frontal mixing with CAA behind the departing system should mix down
a trailing LLJ as well. A majority of model soundings support gusts
peaking 40-55 mph or maybe even occasionally higher at the top of
the mixed layer across much of SD. Thus have also issued a Wind
Advisory for this area from late morning through the early evening
hours and bumped winds and gusts up to a NBM 90th percentile and
HRRR mix.

Despite the drizzly, cloudy start to the day, expect skies to mostly
clear by mid day with some diurnal cumulus in the afternoon.
Westerly winds and insolation will bring breezy highs ranging from
the mid 70s to near 90 degrees. Given propensity to mix
deeper/drier, tweaked dew points drier toward CONSShort. This does
introduce elevated fire danger with gusty winds across much of the
region, especially where fuels remain drier near and east of the I-
29 corridor Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

Monday's frontal boundary stalls across WI/IA/southeast NE on
Tuesday, bringing continued dry and slightly cooler weather. Should
be the choice day for outdoor activities for the week given lighter
winds, lower dew points, and highs mainly in the 70s.

We will see a taste of summer weather Wednesday and Thursday with
highs expected to reach at least the 80s across the region. Record
highs are looking increasingly likely south of I-90 on Wednesday and
Thursday, when highs will peak above 90 degrees. Record warm low
temperatures are looking likely Wednesday night as well. This occurs
as broad WAA lifts hot, moist air back north, and upper ridging
reaches heights near the max of NAEFS climatology just to our east.

Fortunately our major swing up into summer heat from upstream ridge
blocking won't hold for long as a stronger longwave trough pushes
into the Central U.S. by the weekend. Rain chances increase
Wednesday through Thursday night with a few weaker disturbances. The
upper jet moving in on Thursday could bring potential for severe
weather if all of the ingredients align, as highlighted in the
latest SPC outlook. However confidence in any details at this range
is pretty low beyond calling for a breezy Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

MVFR/IFR stratus will continue to spread across the area
overnight, and persist through late Monday morning. May also see
areas of drizzle develop where stratus resides. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will push from south central SD into east
central SD from 08Z to 12Z, with large hail possible as well as
erratic stronger winds.

Southeasterly winds will increase overnight, gusting at 20 to 30
kts at times, transitioning to west/southwesterly on Monday
afternoon. Winds then decrease and become northwesterly on Monday
evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for SDZ038>040-050-
     052>060-063-064.

MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for MNZ081-089-090.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MNZ071-072-080-
     097.

IA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for IAZ002-003-013-
     014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
837 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

SDZ038>040-050-052>060-063-064-100145-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-
Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-
837 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible late tonight
into Monday morning. A few of these storms would be capable of
producing hail to the size of ping pong balls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty winds are expected on Monday. Winds to 45 mph may be
possible.

A sharp rise in temperatures is expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Heat index readings may climb between 85 and 95 degrees in some
locations. The warmest temperatures will be south of Interstate
90.

Scattered thunderstorms may be possible Wednesday and Thursday,
with better focus for thunderstorms on Thursday. A strong to
severe storm could be possible in this timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

MNZ071-072-080-097-100145-
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Pipestone-
837 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible late tonight into Monday
morning. If these storms develop, they could produce hail to the size
of ping pong balls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty winds are expected on Monday. Winds to 45 mph may be possible.

A sharp rise in temperatures is expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Heat index readings may climb between 85 and 95 degrees in some
locations.

Scattered thunderstorms may be possible Wednesday and Thursday,
with better focus for thunderstorms on Thursday. A strong to
severe storm could be possible in this timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely at this time.

IAZ001-MNZ098-SDZ061-062-065>070-100145-
Lyon-Rock-McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-
837 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, southwest
Minnesota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible late tonight into Monday
morning. If these storms develop, they could produce hail to the size
of half dollars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty winds are expected on Monday. Winds to 40 mph may be
possible.

A sharp rise in temperatures is expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Heat index readings may climb between 85 and 95 degrees in some
locations. The warmest temperatures will be south of Interstate
90.

Scattered thunderstorms may be possible Wednesday and Thursday,
with better focus for thunderstorms on Thursday. A strong to
severe storm could be possible in this timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ002-MNZ081-089-090-100145-
Osceola-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
837 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa and southwest
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible late tonight into Monday
morning. If these storms develop, they could produce marginally
severe hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty winds are expected on Monday. Winds to 45 mph may be possible.

A sharp rise in temperatures is expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Heat index readings may climb between 85 and 95 degrees in some
locations. The warmest temperatures will be south of Interstate
90.

Scattered thunderstorms may be possible Wednesday and Thursday,
with better focus for thunderstorms on Thursday. A strong to
severe storm could be possible in this timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ012-020-021-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-100145-
Sioux-Plymouth-Cherokee-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
837 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight. Severe storms are
not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty winds are expected on Monday. Winds to 40 mph may be
possible.

A sharp rise in temperatures is expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Heat index readings may climb between 85 and 95 degrees in some
locations.

Scattered thunderstorms may be possible Wednesday and Thursday,
with better focus for thunderstorms on Thursday. A strong to
severe storm could be possible in this timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ003-013-014-022-100145-
Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay-Buena Vista-
837 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.