Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

253 
WWUS53 KFSD 130553
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1253 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

SDC053-130602-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-220613T0630Z/
Gregory SD-
1253 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREGORY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4385 9834 4385 9814 4324 9812 4318 9882
      4334 9886 4363 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 235DEG 54KT 4372 9852 4356 9840 4335 9857 

$$

SDC003-015-023-035-043-130630-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-220613T0630Z/
Davison SD-Aurora SD-Charles Mix SD-Douglas SD-Brule SD-
1253 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN DAVISON...AURORA...NORTHEASTERN CHARLES MIX...DOUGLAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BRULE COUNTIES...

At 1252 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Plankinton to near Stickney to near New Holland,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Plankinton, Stickney and Mount Vernon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9834 4385 9814 4324 9812 4318 9882
      4334 9886 4363 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 235DEG 54KT 4372 9852 4356 9840 4335 9857 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Kalin

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1104 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

The main focus for weather tonight continues to be the potential for
thunderstorms overnight - some possibly severe. There will be mainly
two areas to keep an eye on overnight - one through the Highway 14
corridor northward and then to the south through the central and
lower MO River Valley. One shortwave tracks out of southern MT this
evening with convection developing through northern SD along the
instability gradient/nose of a developing low level jet. It is
possible that some of this convection could graze the northern
portions of our CWA later tonight. With CAPE values running just
either side of 1500 J/KG and effective shear of 40 kts or greater
over that area, severe storms will be possible with large hail and
strong winds - depending on timing of convection as DCAPE decreases
through the night. Another area to watch will be convection which
will develop over western NE in the evening as another shortwave
tracks eastward out of WY. There are differences in the CAMS as to
how this convection evolves and whether it will lift into our area.
Models would suggest that the greater potential for this would be
through the MO River Valley into northwestern IA toward 06Z tonight.
While there will be sufficient instability over this area, effective
shear looks a little weaker over that area, so the severe potential
may be less - though still possible. It appears that strong winds
would be a greater threat with DCAPE a little higher over that area.
Most models indicate any convection over our area to be exiting by
early to mid morning on Monday.

The main story for Monday then becomes excessive heat with an upper
level ridge remaining over the area and a stout southerly low level
flow developing as a surface trough deepens over the Central High
Plains. This will bring increasing low level moisture as dew points
climb into the lower 70s by Monday afternoon as a warm front lifts
through the area. Latest guidance has come in even warmer for
Monday, with locales in the lower Mo River corridor topping out near
100 degrees, while back to the north lower to mid 90s will be the
rule. The combination of high humidity and hot temperatures will
result in afternoon heat indexes of 100 to 105 for a good portion of
the CWA. Because of that, elected to issue a Heat Advisory for all
but east central SD and southwestern MN. There is the potential that
this advisory could be expanded based on future forecasts. It will
become breezy on Monday and Monday night with good mixing and a
tightening surface gradient.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

A surface cold front then begins to move across the area by Tuesday.
The cooler air will shift into our western areas first with highs in
the lower 80s over south central SD and the James River Valley,
while to the east upper 80s to lower 90s will be found east of
Interstate 29. May see convection develop over the southeastern
portions of the CWA on Tuesday night/early Wednesday as another
shortwave lifts northward on an approaching upper level trough -
while midlevel warm air advection overspreads the area and a low
level jet develops across the region.

With the upper level trough moving through the Northern Plains for
Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will cool back down to more
seasonable levels with highs 70s and 80s. Models are in good
agreement on a broad upper level ridge setting up over the region by
the weekend. This will bring much above normal temperatures and dry
conditions to the region for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Thunderstorms are expected to begin the TAF period, mainly at
KHON as confidence in strong to severe storms has increased for
portions of the highway 14 corridor. The chance for strong to
severe storms continues through about 08Z before activity should
wane below severe levels. MVFR to IFR stratus is still expected to
develop by the early morning hours, now including all TAF sites.
The stratus will continue into the morning hours before lifting to
VFR levels and clearing. Breezy southeasterly winds develop for
the afternoon hours and may continue past sunset for the highway
20 corridor, including KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for SDZ038-039-050-
     052>055-057>071.

MN...NONE.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Meyers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
959 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

SDZ038-039-050-052>055-057>061-063>065-140300-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
959 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms currently located over central South Dakota
and north central Nebraska will move into southeast South Dakota
late this evening. Storms will be capable of large hail up to two
inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 75 mph. The severe threat
should end around 3 am as they approach the I-29 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures climb into the 90s on Monday, with high humidity
levels leading to heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees
Monday afternoon and early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through 3 am.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ062-066>071-140300-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-
Bon Homme-Yankton-Union-
959 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms may move into the outlook area after
dark. There is uncertainty as to if these storms may hold together
as they move into the area after 3 am. If these storms are able to
maintain their strength, they may produce quarter size hail and 60
mph wind gusts.

Additional storms could be possible through daybreak Monday across
areas of Highway 14 as a cluster of storms moves through northern
South Dakota. These storms could produce large hail and strong winds
as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures on Monday will warm into the 90s with heat index
values peaking between 100 and 105 degrees.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, with a marginal risk for a strong storm or two across
portions of Northwestern Iowa into Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 6 am.

MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ040-056-140300-
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Brookings-Moody-
959 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota and east
central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms may move into the outlook area after
dark. There is uncertainty as to if these storms may hold together
as they move into the area after 3 am. If these storms are able to
maintain their strength, they may produce quarter size hail and 60
mph wind gusts.

Additional storms could be possible through daybreak Monday across
areas of Highway 14 as a cluster of storms moves through northern
South Dakota. These storms could produce large hail and strong winds
as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Temperatures on Monday will warm into the 90s with heat index
values peaking between 100 and 105 degrees.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, with a marginal risk for a strong storm or two across
portions of Northwestern Iowa into Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 6 am.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1217 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     TSTM WND GST     DIXON                   43.38N 99.47W
06/13/2022  E59 MPH          GREGORY            SD   MESONET

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1221 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 AM     TSTM WND GST     14 W PLATTE             43.39N 99.12W
06/13/2022  E69 MPH          CHARLES MIX        SD   MESONET

&&

MM