Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1106 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

An upper level wave was moving east of the area this afternoon and
was bringing a westerly component to the low level winds, thus
keeping low level moisture to a minimum. With this in mind any
potential instability that exists is unattainable as we are fully
capped at all levels, so for now do not expect any late afternoon or
early evening development. There will be another wave that will move
onto the Western High Plains this evening which will enhance return
flow and bring some cooling aloft which should support thunderstorm
development west of the Missouri River. These storms will try to
move into areas near and west of the James River from mid evening
into the early overnight hours. Given the very dry low levels the
main threat from these storms will mainly be strong wind gusts but
also a smaller chance for hail. Confidence in this threat for severe
weather is a bit low. After roughly midnight the low level jet will
increase and bring some stronger forcing to area east of the James
River. This forcing will also be fighting that drier air and the
capping inversion, but some scattered potential will exist, with the
better chance north of I-90 into southwest MN. Isolated severe
storms will be possible with this activity and confidence in this is
also on the lower side.

Sunday will see the area remain in an enhanced risk for severe
storms. Once again the late afternoon and early evening development
may be tough as a fairly strong capping inversion looks to be in
place and with some good indications for mid clouds enhanced heating
seems unlikely. However after about 3z a stronger wave will lift
north through eastern NE and help back the low level flow. A fairly
solid elevated shear profile as well as moderate instability should
support some fairly strong storms. Due to the timing of this
potential, wind and hail will be the main threats, although some
decent low level shear will be possible near and east of I-29,
especially near northwest IA so if storms can develop before sunset
there would be a possibility of a tornado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Later Sunday night into Monday confidence wanes a bit on development
and potential as the models vary quite a bit on strength and
placement of the upper level wave. This is a very dynamic wave with
a strong boundary in the low levels. Much of Monday should see some
fairly strong backed winds in the low levels which will bring good
chances for rain and thunderstorms to locations west of Interstate
29. Ensemble output does not really give much of a chance for more
than an inch of rain with this forcing but does indicate a decent
chance for over a half an inch so that would be good for an area that
needs some rainfall.

A severe threat will linger for near and east of Interstate 29 as
this upper level low lifts northeast. The capping may not be as
strong Monday afternoon and early evening so with some pretty
impressive shear and plenty of instability there will be a threat
for supercells and tornadoes. Again, a lot will depend upon where
the upper level low pressure move towards but the current trajectory
would suggest the better chances for the higher end severe weather
would be east of Interstate 29. Will have to wait and see.

Once this wave moves through Monday night into Tuesday cooler air
will settle in and the better instability will be south of the area
through most of next week. The main story for next week will be
temperatures at or below normal, but not too cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Latest radar imagery shows showers and storms starting to drift
eastward into portions of the James River Valley. As alluded to in
the previous discussion, can't rule out the possibility of seeing a
storm or two impact both KHON and KFSD between 06-11z, causing cigs
and vsbys to briefly drop to MVFR levels. Winds during this time
should largely remain out of the E/SE, with gusts ranging between 15
to 25 mph.

Otherwise, look for quiet conditions to gradually return near
daybreak, though MVFR cigs may linger along and north of I-90 though
mid-morning. Showers and storms, a few of which could become severe,
return Sunday evening as a cold front advances toward the region.
However, due to lower confidence in exact location, have opted to
only cover storm chances with a PROB30 Group for the time being.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
400 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>061-063>065-068-292100-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Brule-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-
400 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms return to the region this holiday weekend,
beginning this evening as storms move across central and eastern
South Dakota. The primary severe weather threat this evening will be
damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, with isolated hail up to
half dollar size also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are possible by Sunday evening,
and again late Monday. Although a few storms may become strong to
severe, the greater severe weather threat appears to be near and
east of Highway 81.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ040-055-056-062-066-067-069>071-292100-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Brookings-Lake-Moody-Minnehaha-Turner-
Yankton-Union-
400 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South
Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms return to the region this holiday weekend,
beginning tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible,
mainly after midnight. The strongest storms may produce hail up to
half dollar size, and possibly a few wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional rounds are severe weather are possible Sunday evening and
overnight, and again late Monday into Monday evening. Each of these
periods could see all modes of severe weather, including large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Remain aware of the
forecast and evolving severe weather risks this holiday weekend,
especially if you have outdoor plans.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1224 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 W PLANKINTON          43.71N 98.58W
05/29/2022  M71 MPH          AURORA             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 214 SD RWIS PLANKINTON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW WOLSEY            44.46N 98.50W
05/29/2022  M57 MPH          BEADLE             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 164 SD RWIS WOLSEY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 W PLANKINTON          43.71N 98.58W
05/29/2022  M71 MPH          AURORA             SD   MESONET

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 5
            W PLANKINTON. MESONET STATION 214 SD RWIS
            PLANKINTON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
105 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE FORESTBURG        44.01N 98.03W
05/29/2022  M69 MPH          SANBORN            SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 6 SD RWIS FORESTBURG.

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW HURON             44.39N 98.23W
05/29/2022  M52 MPH          BEADLE             SD   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KHON HURON REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&