River Flood Warning 11, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
632 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Main impacts tonight will be lingering strong to severe Tstorms
through about 6-7pm and potential for strong wind gusts after the
storms this evening. All threats remain possible with activity
spreading east of the I-29 corridor until early evening when the
dryline shifts east out of the forecast area. Cannot entirely rule
out a few isolated strong to severe cells wrapping around back
behind with the occluded warm front, but tornado threat has largely
waned behind this initial line of storms as sfc winds swing
southwest. Also did maintain showers and isolated thunder wrapping
back behind into south central and southeast SD this evening.

Next item of note is gusty south or southwest winds late this
afternoon through this evening. Gusts mixing into the 40s outside of
showers and storms have been common this afternoon. Aside from the
RAP13, model guidance favors sub cloud layer winds become
southwesterly behind the dryline, developing unidirectional flow
with very dry air mixing down below 700mb. This should allow the
strengthening 35-55kt LLJ winds to crank up south and southeast of
the sfc low, resulting in a period of 40-60 mph gusts mixing down to
the sfc through around 9pm. These enhanced stronger winds are most
likely south of a Chamberlain to Madison to Marshall line and north
of a Sioux City to Spencer line. Some guidance suggests 40-60mph
gusts remain possible through midnight, mainly near the SD/NE
border, but this would require gusts to mix through a developing
nocturnal inversion. For now, will maintain Wind Advisory through
8pm, but will need to monitor for a possible extension through
the rest of the evening or, if observations warrant, possible
upgrade to High Wind Warning for a few counties.

Spotty rain showers are likely to continue in southeast and south
central SD overnight as the upper low continues to wrap weak
disturbances around amidst lingering stratus. Given increased
cloudiness, maintained a warmer solution for lows tonight as
temperatures drop into the 50s. Stratus should start to mix/lift to
a cumulus deck Tuesday morning, but spotty sprinkles or showers
remain possible through the morning with a weakly unstable layer.
Additionally breezy west winds continue, lending to a notably cooler
day. Expect high temperatures to only reach the 60s where clouds
linger longest (near/north of I-90) and the 70s further south near
the Hwy 20 corridor where some sun should peek through in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

On Tuesday night the upper trough axis swings through and the upper
low wraps up near Hudson Bay and drier northwest flow aloft prevails
mid week. Tuesday night through Wednesday night will feel quite cool
compared to the last few days with temperatures near to just below
normal values.

By Friday and into the weekend, warmer weather with near to above
normal temperatures prevail as ridging builds over the Rockies. A
more active zonal flow pattern should bring a few rounds of rain
chances as a closed upper low in the Pacific kicks shortwaves
eastward, but ensemble guidance has low chances of any widespread or
greatly impactful systems at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Latest radar imagery showers a few showers still ongoing across the
region as upper level low drifts overhead. While storms have largely
cleared KFSD/KSUX, could still see light rain linger at KHON through
the early morning hours. Aside from this, have also noticed quite
the uptick in the southwesterly winds behind the exiting storms as
dry air works its way down to the sfc. As a result, may see isolated
gusts between 50 to 60 mph continue for the next few hours. Cigs
during this time will be slow to lift, given the fairly expansive
stratus deck wrapping into the aforementioned low. Otherwise, expect
breezy winds to gradually weaken during the overnight period, with
cigs forecast to return to VFR levels at all TAF sites by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ040-050-054>056-
     058>071.

MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...SST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
444 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-310945-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
444 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Yet another round of severe weather appears likely today.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible early this morning,
mainly west of I-29. However, the greater threat will come from
late morning into early this evening, though specific timing and
location details are still somewhat uncertain. All modes of severe
weather are possible today, including a few tornadoes, very large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps localized flash flooding.

If you have outdoor plans for the Memorial Day holiday, be sure
to stay weather aware. Know where the nearest sturdy shelter is
located, and be prepared to seek shelter quickly should severe
storms develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely today, mainly between 10 am this
morning and 8 pm this evening.

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