Wind Advisory 8, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

855 
WWUS75 KFGZ 210007
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
507 PM MST Sun Mar 20 2022

AZZ013-014-211500-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220321T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.220321T1200Z-220322T0600Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
and Springerville
507 PM MST Sun Mar 20 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Little Colorado River Valley in Apache and Navajo
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 11 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In 
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ008-211500-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.220321T0600Z-220322T0600Z/
Yavapai County Mountains-
Including the cities of Prescott, Seligman, and Ash Fork
507 PM MST Sun Mar 20 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM MST MONDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher elevations Yavapai County.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ010-011-016-017-039-040-211500-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.220321T1200Z-220322T0600Z/
Chinle Valley-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Window Rock, Ganado, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, 
Greer, Pinetop, Navajo N.M., Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
507 PM MST Sun Mar 20 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern and central Arizona and the Navajo
  Nation.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 11 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

142 
WWUS75 KFGZ 210929
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
229 AM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

AZZ008-220600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-220322T0600Z/
Yavapai County Mountains-
Including the cities of Prescott, Seligman, and Ash Fork
229 AM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher elevations Yavapai County especially in the
  Bradshaw Mountains.

* WHEN...through 11 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ010-011-013-014-016-017-039-040-220600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.220321T1200Z-220322T0600Z/
Chinle Valley-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Window Rock, Ganado, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, 
Pinetop, Navajo N.M., Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
229 AM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern and central Arizona and the Navajo
  Nation to include the White Mountains, Chuska Mountains, and the
  Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 11 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

296 
WWUS75 KFGZ 211922
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1222 PM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

AZZ008-220600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-220322T0600Z/
Yavapai County Mountains-
Including the cities of Prescott, Seligman, and Ash Fork
1222 PM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Higher elevations Yavapai County, especially in the 
  Bradshaw Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ010-011-013-014-016-017-039-040-220600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-220322T0600Z/
Chinle Valley-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Window Rock, Ganado, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, 
Pinetop, Navajo N.M., Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
1222 PM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern and central Arizona and the Navajo
  Nation. Including the eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, 
  Chuska Mountains, and the Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

928 
WWUS75 KFGZ 220535
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1035 PM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

AZZ008-220645-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-220322T0600Z/
Yavapai County Mountains-
Including the cities of Prescott, Seligman, and Ash Fork
1035 PM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...
Wind speeds have decreased below advisory thresholds this evening,
and the Wind Advisory will expire at 11 PM MST. Locally breezy
conditions will continue overnight along and south of the  
Bradshaw Mountains. Gusts will remain under advisory criteria. 

$$

AZZ010-011-013-014-016-017-039-040-220645-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-220322T0600Z/
Chinle Valley-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Window Rock, Ganado, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, 
Pinetop, Navajo N.M., Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
1035 PM MST Mon Mar 21 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...
Wind speeds have decreased below advisory thresholds this evening,
and the Wind Advisory will expire at 11 PM MST. Locally breezy 
conditions will continue overnight along and south of the Mogollon
Rim, Black Mesa and White Mountains. Gusts will remain under 
advisory criteria.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
858 AM MST Sun Mar 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will impact north-central Arizona
Sunday bringing with it cooler and windy conditions along with
mountain snow and valley rain showers. A rumble of thunder or two
is also expected across Grand Canyon Country and across parts of
the Mogollon Rim. Stronger north winds are expected Monday with
breezy conditions continuing through Wednesday. Warmer
temperatures with lighter winds are likely to end the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Moisture is advected into the region this morning as a
longwave trough beings its approach. Much of the hi-res guidance
this morning has scattered rain/snow showers developing initially
over the high terrain late this morning, then expanding in
coverage later this afternoon and evening as upper-level dynamic
support increases with the approaching trough. Outside of the
showers, areas of gusty winds are also expected over the high
terrain today.

The forecast overnight forecast package handles this well, thus, no
changes were made this morning. Previous discussion continues
below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /329 AM MST/...WV imagery at this hour indicates
that our next upper level storm system was continuing to pinwheel
southward into southern California. A swath of dense mid/upper
level clouds continues to invade from the southwest ahead of this
feature and most areas will begin the day with cloudy skies.
While the near surface layer has decoupled some across lower
elevations, local VWP indicates around 30-40 knots of flow aloft.
While daytime mixing may be limited due to the cloud cover, I
expect after sunrise, we'll tap into some of the higher 30-40
knot momentum aloft. As the upper trough scoots eastward, it'll
actually loosen up the wind field temporarily for much of the
area. The exception to this will be across the eastern parts of
the Mogollon Rim/LCR as well as the White Mountains. For this
reason, I went ahead and hoisted a Wind Advisory that will run
from 18Z today (1100 Arizona Time) to 00Z Monday (1700 Arizona
Time). Sustained winds will approach 30 mph with gusts as great
as 50 mph this afternoon. Experimental NBM probability of
exceedence guidance indicates around a 90% chance of locations
across the White Mountains experiencing advisory caliber winds
and thus forecast confidence is high across this region.
Elsewhere, breezy conditions can still be expected with a high
probability (over 80%) of experiencing sustained winds in the 20
to 30 mph range with gusts to 40 mph (a little higher in spots
along the mountain peaks).

Examining the precipitation aspect of this next system, confidence
remains high that we'll see at least a 60-70% coverage of showers
with around a 20% coverage of thunderstorms. The best time frame
for the onset of precipitation will be later this morning across
the Kaibab, before expanding eastward through the rest of the High
Country by mid to late afternoon. Precipitation will likely taper
off across the Black Mesa/Chuska Mountains and White Mountains
during the pre-dawn hours on Monday.

Snow levels will run around 6500 feet or so, though levels may
dip downward within deeper convection. MUCAPE values from the
HREF will only support at isolated coverage of thunderstorms
(around 20%) mainly across Grand Canyon Country and along the
Mogollon Rim. Outside of isolated lightning strikes,
enhanced/gusty winds and heavier precipitation consisting of rain,
graupel/small hail and snow (reducing visibility) should be
expected within deeper showers and thunderstorms. The impact will
be pockets/periods of hazardous driving conditions. With many of
the probabilistic and deterministic hi-res guidance remaining
aggressive both in measurable precipitation potential and
simulated Z fields, I've nudged PoPs upward toward the SREF means.
The greatest PoPs (60-70%) reside across Grand Canyon Country and
across eastern parts of the rim and LCR/White Mountains. Total
snowfall accumulation will range between a dusting to 1/2" at
elevations around 6500 feet. 1-2 inches of snow is still expected
along the north rim of the Grand Canyon, the San Fransisco Peaks,
and across the White Mountains. For locations below 6500 feet,
anticipate rain amounts to only tally to a few hundredths of an
inch, with a few locales seeing around one-tenth of an inch.

It'll be cooler today with cold conditions forecast tonight and
into Monday. In addition, our second round of winds will take
place starting after midnight tonight and lingering through the
day on Monday. I've made some slight alterations to the High Wind
Watch with the main change to highlight the higher terrain of
Yavapai County (these locales stand the best chance for near 60
mph wind gusts) for tonight into Monday morning. The remainder of
the High Wind Watch remains in tact as forecast 700mb wind fields
from much of the deterministic guidance still advertises 50 to 55
knot flow streaming in overhead across the backside of the
departing upper trough. Experimental NBM guidance has proven to
over inflate the wind speeds just a touch (at least anecdotally),
but given the strong consensus among the deterministic guidance
regarding the 700mb wind field, the experimental NBM's output of
near 60 mph wind gusts across the Black Mesa, Chuska Mountains and
portions of the LCR and White Mountains on Monday remains
plausible. It's quite possible that we opt for Wind Advisories in
lieu of warnings, however, in the event that deeper momentum
transfer appears unlikely. Regardless of the NWS product, it'll
be windy on Monday (probability of exceeding 40 mph wind gusts
averages between 70 and 90 percent) with many areas experiencing
sustained winds near 30 mph with gusts as high as 55mph and likely
needing at least Wind Advisory headlines.

Winds will abate as the height gradient aloft/surface pressure
gradient loosen through the remainder of the week. We'll still see
breezy conditions across the Black Mesa/Chuskas down into the
Whites on Tuesday, but speeds are expected to remain below
advisory levels. After some cold nights with lows in the teens and
twenties for the colder locations across N. AZ, we'll see both
high and low temperatures moderate to above seasonal norms. At
this juncture, it appears that mid-level ridging will take hold of
the weather pattern from mid-week onward and thus no
precipitation chances are advertised.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Light rain and snow showers will
increase beginning now, with the potential for scattered MVFR and
isolated IFR conditions lasting through the overnight hours. West to
southwest winds will generally range from 10-20G25-35kts today, with
the strongest winds over higher terrain along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. After 07Z Monday, winds will begin switch to the north
behind a cold front forecast to sweep across the area from the
northwest to the southeast. Wind speeds in excess of 50kts will be
possible at locations immediately south of high terrain features.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing clouds and southwest winds today becoming
northwest to north this evening. Winds could become very strong
across Yavapai County eastward to the New Mexico border and
northward to the Four Corners. Winds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts
between 40 to 50 MPH are possible this evening through Monday
afternoon. Chances for rain and snow with cooler temperatures are
also expected today through Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Gusty north to northeast winds will
continue Tuesday and Wednesday with lighter winds expected on
Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm to near normal through
midweek along with dry conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening FOR
AZZ010-011-014-016-017-039.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ013-014.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday evening FOR
AZZ008.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff