Wind Advisory 28, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 AM MST Sun Jun 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will continue today. Southwesterly
winds will become gusty this afternoon, with increased fire
danger. On Monday, temperatures will be a little cooler and winds
will become even stronger with dangerous fire weather conditions
developing across all of northern Arizona. Lighter winds and a
brief warm up is expected by mid-week, with the potential for a
push of monsoon moisture by Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...The forecast remains on track this morning with
increasing southwest winds and mostly clear sky conditions
expected for this afternoon. Temperatures will remain hot across
northern Arizona today before decreasing some for Monday and
Tuesday. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect today for
lower elevations from the Grand Canyon to Page.

Red Flag Warnings remain in place as well...the first for today
across portions of northern Arizona and the second for Monday
across all of northern Arizona. Gusty to strong southwest winds
with low humidity is anticipated both days.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /223 AM MST/...A broad upper trough entering the
Pacific Northwest will tighten the pressure gradient across
northern Arizona this afternoon. The combination of gusty winds
and low RH values will lead to critical fire conditions. A Red
Flag Warning will remain in effect for portions of Yavapai and
Coconino counties, and the western portions of Navajo Nation and
the Hopi Tribe this afternoon. Furthermore, temperatures will
continue to run above normal, with an Excessive Heat Warning
remaining in effect along the Grand Canyon into Page today.

By Monday, the aforementioned trough will push east into the
northern Rockies, further tightening the gradient over northern
Arizona. With windier conditions expected, critical fire weather
conditions are expected across all of northern Arizona. Therefore,
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Monday.

By Tuesday, the upper trough should begin lifting into Canada,
with weaker winds expected across northern Arizona. High pressure
over the southern US should gradually expand westward into Arizona
through mid-week, with temperatures peaking by Thursday.

By Friday, a classic monsoonal pattern is progged to develop with
high pressure becoming centered over the Southern Plains opening
up a Gulf of California tap over Arizona. Coincident troughing
over California should aid in thunderstorm development over
Arizona through the weekend. The highest chances currently look to
be over eastern Arizona, with still pretty good chances over
central and western Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...VFR conditions will prevail
over northern Arizona through the TAF period. Expect southwesterly
wind 15-25kts with gusts 25-35 until around 02Z...then southwest 10-
20kts. Southwest winds will become even stronger after 16Z. LLWS
will be possible near KFLG-KGCN after 06z Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions will continue today. Gusty
southwesterly winds with peak gusts of 30-45 MPH are expected this
afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of northern
Arizona this afternoon. Even stronger southwest winds are expected
Monday, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for all of northern
Arizona.

Tuesday through Thursday...Winds will decrease some on Tuesday, but
minimum RH values will remain below 15 percent. Lighter winds are
expected on Wednesday and Thursday with little to no precipitation
likely.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to
8 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ104>118- 137>140.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>109-112-
139-140.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005-
006.

&&

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/TM
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff