Wind Advisory 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
849 AM MST Sun Apr 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy winds today with increasing cloud cover and
average springtime temperatures. Expect significant changes to the
weather with very strong winds and a chance of showers Monday and
Tuesday. After a blast of cold temperatures through midweek, a
slight warming trend will gradually return by Thursday with
continuous breezy conditions each afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...A weak shortwave in the northwest flow will approach the
region today through this evening. Mid level moisture along a
nearly stalled cold front is bringing mainly virga showers over
east central Arizona this morning in the Ganado and Window Rock
areas. This is forecast to continue into this evening though any
rainfall should be very light trace amounts. Otherwise today's
forecast is on track and the main focus of this afternoon's
package will be on the strong winds expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /426 AM MST/...Typical springtime weather is in
the forecast for Sunday with average temperatures, some breezy
west to southwest winds, and scattered clouds across the sky.
While most areas will remain dry, their is a slight chance of
rain showers near the Arizona and New Mexico border late Sunday
afternoon and into the evening.

Monday through Wednesday...A strong upper-level low pressure
system located over the Northwest U.S. will begin to make it's
way east to southeastward Monday. While the low-pressure area will
remain well north of Arizona, the associated trough will extend
far enough south to significantly tighten pressure gradients
through the lower portions of the atmosphere. These strong
gradients over Arizona will increase winds Monday with peak winds
anticipated late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. A High
Wind Watch has been issued beginning Monday afternoon with
sustained winds out of the southwest at 30 to 40 mph and gusts
above 60 mph possible across much of northern Arizona. These winds
will be especially strong near and east-northeast of higher
terrain stretching from the Kaibab Plateau along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. Blowing dust could become a concern especially for
the Little Colorado River Valley, potentially creating periods of
hazardous travel conditions. A cold front will help drive the
chance of rain and snow showers with the best chances being
Tuesday morning for the Flagstaff area before pushing eastward by
the afternoon. This strong cold front will bring temperatures
crashing down Tuesday. Snow levels will be near 4,500 to 5,500
feet. Although showers are likely along the Rim, moisture is
limited with this system, leading to limited accumulation. Behind
the front, early morning lows Wednesday morning will be well below
freezing for much of northern Arizona. Take any necessary actions
to avoid damage to sensitive plants, pipes, and/or irrigation
systems.

Thursday through Saturday...After a cold morning Thursday, spring
will try to make a return with temperatures rising in the
afternoon to mid 50s to mid 60s for higher terrain and low to mid
70s for the northern Arizona valleys. However, models indicate
zonal flow that will likely limit warming Friday and into the
weekend. Expect afternoon high temperatures to be near or just
below seasonal averages with breezy southwest to westerly winds
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours under varying amounts of mid to high-level cloud cover.
Southwest to west winds at 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts will
increase to 10-20 kts gusting to 25-35 kts by 20Z, continuing until
around 02Z. Overnight winds diminishing to 5-15 kts with gusts to 20
kts. Southwest winds will begin to increase again after 14Z Monday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Look for gusty southwest winds today and tonight
becoming strong Monday into Monday night. Local wind gusts near 60
mph will be possible later on Monday, especially from the Mogollon
Rim northward. Otherwise, cooler temperatures and increasing
relative humidity values are forecast. Ventilation very good to
excellent both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Look for cold temperatures and a good
chance of showers on Tuesday followed by dry conditions and warming
temperatures for the remaining days. Gusty westerly winds will
develop each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...High Wind Watch from Monday
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon FOR AZZ013-014-016-017.

High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
FOR AZZ004>007-009>012-015-039-040.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff