Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
207 PM MST Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to
persist through the week and the weekend. Storm coverage will
become more isolated over eastern Arizona by Wednesday, before
storm potential likely expands westward through the end of the
week and over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It has been an active day on radar to start the
week. Several strong storm systems have been seen across Coconino
County and Yavapai County today, and we'll continue to see
widespread storm activity throughout the afternoon/evening hours.
This active pattern is the result of a strong shortwave trough
that moved across northwest to southcentral Arizona this
afternoon. Due to the continual rainfall we've seen over the last
24 hours or so, we do have a Flash Flood Watch in effect for our
entire CWA through 11 PM MST tonight. Stay tuned to our social
media pages (Twitter and Facebook) for updated weather information
and always check your local weather before heading out for the
day!

Tuesday and Wednesday...Isolated to widespread storm potential
will be possible mostly along the Mogollon Rim and south
tomorrow. By Wednesday, the northerly flow will continue to push
drier air into the north/northwestern portion of the state,
limiting storm activity to over eastern Arizona.

Thursday onward...Showers and thunderstorms may begin to ramp back
up across central and northern Arizona. Models are beginning to
hold an agreement of additional shortwaves rotating around the
greater low pressure system. Currently, storm coverage is looking
to increase along the Mogollon Rim toward the weekend. Overall,
anticipate a wet weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...+SHRA/TSRA will remain WDSPRD
until approximately 02Z. Stronger storms will likely produce
MVFR/IFR conditions. ISOLD SHRA will linger after 03Z, mainly
south of I-40. Winds in and around storms could become gusty, and
erratic. Around 18Z Tuesday, SHRA/TSRA will be possible along and
south of a KGCN-KINW-KSJN line. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected for Tuesday, mainly along and south of the Mogollon
Rim. Storm coverage will decrease Wednesday, with best storm chances
over the White Mountains. Light northerly winds are expected outside
of any storms.

Thursday through Saturday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue, mainly across eastern Arizona. Outside of
storm activity, winds will be northeast to easterly with slightly
below average temperatures.

&&
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ004>018-037>040-
104>118-137>140.

&&

PUBLIC...Swenson
AVIATION...Swenson
FIRE WEATHER...Swenson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
215 PM MST MON OCT 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE PRESCOTT AIRPORT  34.65N 112.42W
10/03/2022  M60 MPH          YAVAPAI            AZ   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KPRC PRESCOTT AIRPORT.

&&

MCT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
224 PM MST Mon Oct 3 2022

AZZ016-018-032200-
Northern Gila County-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
224 PM MST Mon Oct 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gila and Coconino
Counties through 300 PM MST...

At 224 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Washington Park, or 12 miles north of Payson, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Geronimo Estates, Washington Park, Whispering Pines, Geronimo Boy
Scout Camp, Water Wheel Burn At Houston Mesa Rd-
S, Kehl Springs Campground, Beaver Valley and Water Wheel Burn At
Houston Mesa Rd-N.

This includes State Route 87 between mile markers 283 and 288.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 11141 3453 11137 3451 11112 3431 11117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 280DEG 12KT 3443 11131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
225 PM MST MON OCT 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW PRESCOTT VALLEY    34.58N 112.35W
10/03/2022  E60 MPH          YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERS REPORTED ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO
            50-60 MPH WITH SEVERAL 2 INCH DIAMETER TREE
            BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
227 PM MST MON OCT 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     HAIL             2 W PRESCOTT COURTHOUSE 34.53N 112.51W
10/03/2022  E0.75 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>