Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
842 AM MST Fri Aug 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and storms are forecast through
Saturday, making flash flooding possible in vulnerable areas.
Drier conditions begin Sunday, ushering in widespread higher
temperatures. Storm chances are limited next week but remain
mentionable for the White Mountains.

&&

.UPDATE...Light showers and thunderstorms have started already
this morning as seen on radar. An update was made to the forecast
to better reflect this activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /248 AM MST/...Persistent eastward storm motion
today will limit a widespread flash flood threat over northern
Arizona. However, moist soils and strong flows on local waterways
mean isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible. This is
especially true if storms train over sensitive areas.

Although widespread monsoonal thunderstorm activity is expected
today, a steady and significant daily decrease in activity is
expected beginning tomorrow. An infusion of dry northwesterly
flow means that by the beginning of next week, hot and dry weather
is likely. Lowland desert temperatures are poised to climb into
the triple digits, making midday strenuous outdoor activity risky.
Any storms that form during this dry stretch next week are most
likely to affect the White Mountains.

Toward the end of next week, a return to moist southwesterly flow
could boost rain chances across northern Arizona. Uncertainty
exists over the strength of this return, though.

&&

AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...VFR conditions and
light winds will prevail. MVFR/VFR and gusty/erratic winds in and
near storms around 18Z diminishing by 05Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely for today and Saturday. Lightning, flash flooding, and
outflow winds will be the main threats.

Sunday through Tuesday...Expect a downward trend of storm coverage
with increasing temperatures each day through early next week.
Minimum afternoon humidity in the 20 to 30 percent range.

&&

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Kobold/BAJ
AVIATION...Kobold
FIRE WEATHER...Kobold

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

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