Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
945 AM MST Sun Jul 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain in place for the
foreseeable future. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop
each day, with lightning and heavy rain being the primary threats.
Warmer than average temperatures are expected this weekend and
lasting into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies, decent PW values and southeasterly
steering flow will make for an active day today. Expect initial
storm activity over higher terrain features, the Mogollon Rim, the
Bradshaws and the Chuskas, spreading westward through the day and
into this evening.

These conditions repeat for Monday, although there may be a slight
downturn in activity, if we get really worked over today. Daytime
temperatures will remain very warm for this forecast period, the
only relief coming from rainfall.

Forecast is in good shape, no updates needed.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...Mainly VFR conditions are
expected for the TAF period, outside of thunderstorms. Areas MVFR
possible from 18Z-03Z, due to SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA. Sfc winds
generally light, aside from thunderstorm activity. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and warm
temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday. Storms most numerous
initially over higher terrain feature, then shifting westward late
each afternoon and evening.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms remain, but the emphasis for storm activity shifts
a bit eastward. Outside of thunderstorms, temperatures will be warm
with generally light winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ005-006 below
4500 feet.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...BAJ/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff