Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
945 AM MST Mon May 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Strong southwest winds and low humidity will produce
critical fire weather conditions again today for much of northern
Arizona. Expect a bit less wind Tuesday, with winds ramping again
on Wednesday. A warming trend arrives Thursday, with summer-like
temperatures and less wind heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona remains on the windy side of a long-wave
trough today, with some areas already reaching into Wind Advisory
criteria this morning. Gradients remain strong enough to produce
widespread Rad Flag and Wind Advisory weather along and to the
northeast of the Kaibab-Mogollon-White crescent.

Gradients relax a bit Tuesday as the final s/wv drops into the mean
trough position and then briefly closes off near San Francisco. Most
areas should stay away from headline issuance, but it will be very
close north of the Mogollon Rim.

On Wednesday, the aforementioned s/wv ejects eastward and lifts out
through southern Nevada/southern Utah. This is a windy trajectory
for Arizona and we fully expect that headlines will be needed once
again. In fact, conditions on Wednesday should equal or exceed what
we will see this afternoon.

Behind this s/wv, gradients relax dramatically and hghts begin to
rise heading into next weekend. Hght rises peak on Sunday, which
should be the warmest day so far this year.

All products look good and the forecast is on track. No short term
updates needed this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...VFR conditions persist for
the next 24 hours with a mostly clear sky. Expect gusty southwest
winds of 35-40 kts this afternoon, decreasing after 02Z. Areas of
blowing dust are possible for KPGA & KINW during this time. Lighter
southerly breezes likely overnight with FEW-SCT high cloud cover.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect another round of gusty southwest winds from
35-45 mph today, with critical fire weather conditions developing
over much of northern Arizona along and north of the Mogollon Rim. A
slight decrease in winds is expected on Tuesday, but low RH and
breezy conditions will bring near critical fire weather conditions
to the area.

Wednesday through Friday...Stronger southwest winds will return on
Wednesday, with very low RH. This will result in widespread critical
fire weather conditions. Much lighter west-northwest winds are
forecast on Thursday and Friday, with dry conditions and warm
temperatures continuing.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
for AZZ104-106-107-109>117-139-140.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
for AZZ004-006-007-009>017-039-040.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...BAK/LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff