High Wind Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

665 
WWUS75 KFGZ 221127
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
427 AM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

AZZ013-014-016-017-230600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.221022T1900Z-221024T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, 
and Pinetop
427 AM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM
MST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected. The strongest winds are expected from 8 PM MST tonight
  through 8 AM MST Sunday morning.

* WHERE...Eastern Mogollon Rim and adjacent Little Colorado River
  Valley.

* WHEN...From noon today to 5 PM MST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ010-012-015-039-230600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.221022T1900Z-221023T1800Z/
Chinle Valley-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Black Mesa Area-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, 
and Navajo N.M.
427 AM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM
MST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
  expected. The strongest winds are expected from 8 PM MST tonight
  through 8 AM MST Sunday morning.

* WHERE...Western Mogollon Rim and adjacent Little Colorado River
  Valley, Black Mesa, and Chinle Valley.

* WHEN...From noon today to 11 AM MST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, snow showers will
  develop over the mountains tonight into Sunday morning which 
  may cause areas of blowing snow and poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ004>009-230600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.221022T1900Z-221023T1800Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
Including the cities of Jacob Lake, Fredonia, Page, Lees Ferry, 
Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, 
Seligman, Ash Fork, Keams Canyon, and Kaibito
427 AM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
  expected. The strongest winds are expected from 8 PM MST tonight
  through 8 AM MST Sunday morning.

* WHERE...Much of north-central and northwestern Arizona.

* WHEN...From noon today to 11 AM MST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, snow showers will
  develop over the mountains tonight into Sunday morning which may
  cause areas of blowing snow and poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ011-040-230600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.221022T1900Z-221024T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Dilkon, 
and Kykotsmovi
427 AM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
  expected. The strongest winds are expected from 8 PM MST tonight
  through 8 AM MST Sunday morning.

* WHERE...portions of northeastern Arizona.

* WHEN...From noon today to 5 PM MST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

541 
WWUS75 KFGZ 230350
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
850 PM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

AZZ013-014-016-017-231800-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221024T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, 
and Pinetop
850 PM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and adjacent
  areas of the Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST Sunday, with the strongest winds 
  expected tonight into the early morning hours.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ010-012-015-039-231800-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221023T1800Z/
Chinle Valley-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Black Mesa Area-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, 
and Navajo N.M.
850 PM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Western Mogollon Rim, Black Mesa, Chinle Valley, and and
  adjacent areas of the Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Sunday, with the strongest winds 
  expected tonight into the early morning hours..

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and
  cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially for
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ004>009-231800-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-221023T1800Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
Including the cities of Jacob Lake, Fredonia, Page, Lees Ferry, 
Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, 
Seligman, Ash Fork, Keams Canyon, and Kaibito
850 PM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Much of north-central and northwestern Arizona.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Sunday, with the strongest winds 
  expected tonight into the early morning hours..

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Winds
  this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
  profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ011-040-231800-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-221024T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Dilkon, 
and Kykotsmovi
850 PM MST Sat Oct 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST Sunday, with the strongest winds expected
  tonight into the early morning hours..

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

317 
WWUS75 KFGZ 231036
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
336 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022

AZZ013-014-016-017-231845-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221024T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, 
and Pinetop
336 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /436 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and adjacent
  areas of the Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ010-012-015-039-231800-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221023T1800Z/
Chinle Valley-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Black Mesa Area-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, 
and Navajo N.M.
336 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /436 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Western Mogollon Rim, Black Mesa, Chinle Valley, and and
  adjacent areas of the Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST this morning.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ004>009-231800-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-221023T1800Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
Including the cities of Fredonia, Jacob Lake, Page, Lees Ferry, 
Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, 
Seligman, Ash Fork, Keams Canyon, and Kaibito
336 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /436 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Much of north-central and northwestern Arizona.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ011-040-231845-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-221024T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Dilkon, 
and Kykotsmovi
336 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /436 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

635 
WWUS75 KFGZ 231759
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1059 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022

AZZ010-012-015-039-231900-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221023T1800Z/
Chinle Valley-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Black Mesa Area-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, 
and Navajo N.M.
1059 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /1159 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING...

With the passing of the frontal system, the windy conditions have
begun to subside for areas along the western Mogollon Rim and 
portions of the Colorado River Valley. We'll begin to see lighter 
north-northwest winds throughout the day, but cannot rule out a 
brief wind gust or two. 

$$

AZZ004>009-231900-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-221023T1800Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
Including the cities of Fredonia, Jacob Lake, Page, Lees Ferry, 
Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, 
Seligman, Ash Fork, Keams Canyon, and Kaibito
1059 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /1159 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING...

With the passing of the frontal system, the windy conditions have
begun to subside for areas in western Coconino County and higher 
elevations of Yavapai County. We'll begin to see lighter north- 
northwest winds throughout the day, but cannot rule out a brief 
wind gust or two. 

$$

AZZ013-014-016-017-240000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221024T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, 
and Pinetop
1059 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /1159 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and adjacent
  areas of the Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ011-040-240000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-221024T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Dilkon, 
and Kykotsmovi
1059 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /1159 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

808 
WWUS75 KFGZ 231959
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1259 PM MST Sun Oct 23 2022

AZZ013-014-016-017-240400-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221024T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.221024T0400Z-221024T1500Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, 
Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, 
and Pinetop
1259 PM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /159 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 24 expected.

* WHERE...Much of northern Arizona.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

AZZ011-040-240400-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-221024T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.221024T0400Z-221024T1500Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Dilkon, 
and Kykotsmovi
1259 PM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /159 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 24 expected.

* WHERE...Much of northern Arizona.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

AZZ004-006>010-012-015-039-240400-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.221024T0400Z-221024T1500Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-
Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Black Mesa Area-
Including the cities of Fredonia, Jacob Lake, 
Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, 
Seligman, Ash Fork, Keams Canyon, Kaibito, Canyon De Chelly, 
Chinle, Kayenta, Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Flagstaff, Williams, 
Munds Park, and Navajo N.M.
1259 PM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 /159 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 23 expected.

* WHERE...Much of northern Arizona.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
857 PM MST Fri Oct 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A significant pattern change arrives this weekend and
into early next week as a fall storm system pushes through the
region. Strong southwest winds, chances for rain and mountain
snow, and much colder temperatures are anticipated across northern
Arizona during this time. Fair weather returns late on Monday
into Tuesday with the possibility of another storm system setting
up for the latter half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds aloft continue to increase this evening as a
trough approaches from the northwest. This will keep light
southwesterly surface winds up to 10 mph going overnight. These
winds will keep overnight lows relatively mild for late October,
from 5 to 10 degrees above average. This time tomorrow will be
quite a different story, with very windy conditions and a chance
of showers. More details on this big change in the discussion
below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /250 PM MST/...

Main changes made this forecast cycle:

*QPF has decreased a bit across the region with the most
noticeable decreases for the Little Colorado River Valley,
eastern Mogollon Rim, and the White Mountains.

*Mountain snow accumulations have decreased with highest amounts
remaining in the White Mountains.

Southwest breezes with a few cumulus clouds taking place currently
across the region this afternoon as high pressure sits towards the
south. This tranquil, mild weather will not last long as the first
significant fall season storm looks to impact northern Arizona for
this weekend. The details are outlined below.

Winds--->High Confidence: Upper-level winds begin to increase
tonight in response to a low pressure trough currently moving
through the Pacific Northwest region. As the longwave trough makes
its way through the Intermountain West on Saturday, pressure
gradients tighten, coupled with the presence of an enhanced
upper-level sub-tropical jet, resulting in widespread southwest
winds across northern Arizona. Much of the region will experience
gusts of 30-40 mph for Saturday afternoon and evening with
stronger gusts (45-55 mph) expected for the Kaibab Plateau, along
the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and across the Navajo Nation.
Localized downsloping areas could see 55mph+ wind gusts,
especially Saturday night through Sunday morning, when winds are
expected to peak in intensity due to the trough's frontal passage.
This includes Doney Park, along I-40 through the Little Colorado
River Valley, and Springerville. Wind Advisories are currently in
place for much of northern Arizona from Saturday afternoon through
much of Sunday. Winds then begin to decrease and shift to the
northwest by Sunday night, signifying post-frontal conditions.

Temperatures--->High Confidence: Probably will be the most
noticeable change which can catch people off guard. To be honest,
we have been spoiled lately when it comes to temperatures. So far
for much of the meteorological fall season (begins September
1st), we in northern Arizona have experienced average to above
average temperatures...this includes overnight low temperatures.
So while this potential cold air will feel like a shock to many,
it is expected for the end of October, especially in the
mountains. As the trough's cold front makes its way through the
region on Sunday, high temperatures for Sunday and Monday are
forecast to be 10-15 degrees below average with hard freezes (28
degrees and below) likely in higher terrain for Sunday and Monday
nights as winds relax and clouds clear. Time to prepare irrigation
and sensitive animals and plants.

Precipitation--->Medium Confidence: Scattered to widespread rain
showers with mountain snow are forecast from Saturday night
through Sunday. However, confidence is a bit shaky at this point
in terms of how much mainly due to the limited moisture supply.
According to much of the recent deterministic and ensemble model
guidance, the trough and associated cold front will be dynamic
with an ample amount of forcing and upward vertical motion,
especially along higher terrain features. But then looking at a
handful of model soundings across the region, moisture looks to be
shallow with much of it confined to the lower-levels (sfc to ~600
mb). Given the dynamics of the front and little moisture supply,
rain and high elevation snow rates could be intense for brief
periods as the front pushes through from the northwest, but
overall accumulation will be low. A bit higher confidence exists
at this time in this scenario playing out due to reductions in QPF
in regards to the NBM, GEFS, and ECMWF Ens. Snow levels will be
tricky as well, but confidence has increased with the overall
timing of the front and decrease in snow levels. Much of the snow
potential should take place Sunday night from Flagstaff southward
with the frontal passage. Snow levels look to start out around
11,000 feet Saturday evening dropping below 6,000 feet overnight
just as precipitation tapers and drier, post-frontal air moves
in. Highest snow amounts are likely for the Kaibab Plateau and the
White Mountains with 1-3 inches possible by Monday morning. As
for Flagstaff, the NBM currently has a less than 10% chance of
snow accumulation greater than an inch at the airport. So, given
this data, for those who live in higher terrain, expect to see
flakes in the air Sunday night, but little to no accumulation.

As for the remainder of the forecast, tranquil weather looks to
return late Monday through Tuesday as zonal flow sets up. As we
head into the latter half of next week, both the GEFS and ECMWF
Ens show another storm system impacting the region from the west-
northwest. Temperatures look to remain on the cool side with
breezy to gusty afternoon winds and chances for precipitation.
Full steam ahead to winter.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z TAF package...Expect VFR conditions through
16Z under scattered mid and high clouds. After 16Z, local ceilings
at 2500-4000 feet AGL will be possible along and south of a KFLG-
KSOW line. Southwesterly winds will increase to 15-25 kts by midday
Saturday with gust to 40 kts developing Saturday afternoon. A slight
chance of showers Saturday afternoon, increasing after 00Z
especially KFLG-KSOW southward, and NW of KGCN. MVFR/local IFR in
showers. Winds after 00Z increasing further to SW 20-30 kts with
gusts 35 to 50 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Southwest winds will become rather gusty and strong
on Saturday in advance of an approaching cold front. In addition,
chances for showers will be on the increase Saturday afternoon.
Sunday it will be windy and colder with a good chance of showers.

Monday through Wednesday...Rain and snow showers will move out of
most of the area by Monday but could linger over the White Mountains
region. Winds will shift to northerly and be much lighter on Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday will see mild and dry weather with light winds
on Tuesday becoming gusty from the southwest Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday for
AZZ004>009-015-104>109-115.

Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 5 PM MST Sunday for
AZZ010>014-016-017-039-040-110>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/LaGuardia
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff