Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
951 AM MST Fri Jul 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...An active monsoon pattern will continue with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Flash flooding will
remain the main threat during this time.

&&

.UPDATE...Some showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop
across northeastern Arizona this morning. Motion of these storms
is towards the north-northeast and they are moving pretty quickly
so do not anticipate much coming from them other than a quick
burst of rain and some gusty winds. As we head into this
afternoon, expect the radar to fill in a bit more and with the
ripe conditions in place due to atmospheric moisture and wet
antecedent conditions, another day of potential flash flooding is
expected.

Made some updates to the PoPs to better reflect current radar and
trends. Otherwise, the forecast looks good and on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /244 AM MST/...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
continue this morning. Over western Navajo County, Coconino and
Yavapai Counties: most seem to be rotating around Mesoscale
Convective Vortices - remnants of strong storms that happened
over the past few days. This is similar to what we've seen with
storm activity the past two mornings. Across Gila, southern
Navajo and Apache Counties: we're seeing storms ahead of a
complex in southeastern Arizona this morning. The Flash Flood
threat continues for your morning commute. Turn around, don't
drown!

High Precipitable Water content continues across northern Arizona
with values above 1". This is due to the placement of high
pressure currently residing over the Pacific Northwest allowing
for moisture to advect across our region from the Gulf of
California. This will continue the Flash Flood threat especially
with the flooding we have seen thus far creating saturated soils
that are unable to absorb additional rainfall. The Flash Flood
Watch continues through early Saturday morning for all of northern
Arizona. Avoid slot canyons and swimming holes, have a way to get
to higher ground and have more than one way to receive warnings.
Do not drive into flood waters!

Beginning Sunday, the high looks to shift to our north and into
the Plains. This should tamper down some of the moisture
propagating into the region with some chances that we might return
to more normal looking monsoon day(s)- clear at night and in the
morning with thunderstorm activity in the late morning to early
evening. However, since models are showing differing solutions
related to the position of that high, we will have to see if the
deluge continues.

&&

AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...Widespread showers and
thunderstorms. VFR conditions with light winds except for MVFR/IFR
and gusty, erratic winds near and in storms. Storm coverage will
decrease after 06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...Widespread thunderstorms today with flash
flooding the main threat. Storm chances and coverage will decrease
overnight. Scattered to numerous storms Saturday. Light winds,
seasonally cool temperatures, and humid both days with gusty,
erratic winds in and near storms.

Sunday through Tuesday...Daily thunderstorms will continue through
Tuesday, with a slight decline in storm coverage each day. Flash
flooding will continue to be the major threat.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ004>018-037>040-104>118-
137>140.

&&

PUBLIC...Meola/Kobold
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
838 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E CHINLE              36.15N 109.55W
07/26/2022                   APACHE             AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW PEOPLE WERE EVACUATED FROM A HOME THAT
            FLOODED IN EASTERN CHINLE NEAR CANYON DE
            CHELLY/CHINLE WASH. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1010 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE STEAMBOAT CANYON  35.75N 109.84W
07/27/2022                   APACHE             AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING IN RURAL STEAMBOAT CANYON AZ. PHOTO
            EVIDENCE OF WATER/MUD WASHING OUT A
            RESIDENTIAL ROAD. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1054 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE HARDROCK          36.08N 110.44W
07/28/2022                   NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

            PHOTO EVIDENCE OF WHITE VALLEY ROAD - N8031
            COMPLETELY WASHED OUT. NOT SURE THE EXACT
            TIME THE ROAD WASHED OUT, SO THE TIME STAMP
            IS THE TIME OF THE REPORT.

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1109 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      K'AI'BII'TO             36.61N 111.07W
07/27/2022                   COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            PHOTO EVIDENCE OF WASHED OUT ROADS IN THE
            AREA. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

TM