Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 AM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will continue to increase over the
next several days, bringing higher chances for thunderstorms and an
increased potential for flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A pattern featuring deep and layered southerly flow
over Arizona, along with high PW values, will continue for the next
few days, if not all week. There is strong potential for scattered
to widespread, high-precipitation convection each day. There will be
some issues with debris cloud cover and remnant MCS/MCC, which could
hamper convection in places each day. It will be difficult to nail
down which days are up or down, until these features show themselves.

That being said, much of our CWA is starting today most sunny, with
the exception of Yavapai County, which is currently being affected
by a decaying MCS. Surface dewpoints are high, aided by outflows
from the Phoenix area MCS and a continued Gulf of California surge.
It should be an active day, with activity likely persisting into the
late evening over western Coconino and Yavapai counties, There is
potential for another MCS tonight and it could be partially in our
CWA, will have to wait and see.

Models indicate another active day on Monday, targeting the western
and southwestern CWA pretty hard, once again. This will depend on
debris cloud contamination, but we have very high PoPs for now. The
remainder of the week is more of the same, streamlines do begin to
shift toward the end of the week, as high pressure develops over the
northwestern Great Basin.

No updates this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...Numerous SHRA/TSRA with MVFR
to IFR conditions over the next 24 hours. VFR conditions outside of
storms, with light winds. Gusty and erratic winds are likely in and
near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Numerous showers and thunderstorm, with moderate to
heavy rain possible through Monday, even at night. Light winds away
from storms, with much cooler temperatures.

Tuesday through Thursday...Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms
each day across northern Arizona. Cooler temperatures continue.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch from 1 PM MST this afternoon through late Tuesday night
FOR AZZ008-017-018-037.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...BAJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/BAJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff