Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

565 
WGUS75 KFGZ 190402
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
902 PM MST Mon Jul 18 2022

AZC005-025-190515-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-220719T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
902 PM MST Mon Jul 18 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

At 900 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain has ended 
over the warned area, extreme western Coconino and northwestern 
Yavapai County, east of Peach Springs and along and north of Route 
66. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain fell earlier this evening. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Fraziers Well and Hualapai Reservation.

This includes the following highways...
	Route 66 between mile markers 114 and 127.

This includes the following creeks, washes and rivers...
  Albers Wash and Diamond Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 11313 3582 11298 3568 11299 3540 11306
      3552 11328

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJ

298 
WGUS75 KFGZ 190514
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1014 PM MST Mon Jul 18 2022

AZC005-025-190524-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-220719T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
1014 PM MST Mon Jul 18 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended over extreme western Coconino and northwest 
Yavapai counties. Storm runoff will continue for the next few hours, 
please continue to heed any road closures and do not cross flooded 
roadways.

LAT...LON 3583 11313 3582 11298 3568 11299 3540 11306
      3552 11328

$$

JJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
305 PM MST Mon Jul 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Hot afternoon temperatures will continue with
Thursday now expected to be the warmest day of the week. A slight
decrease in shower and thunderstorm chances for most of northern
Arizona the next few days is expected before a more active
monsoon period returns towards the end of the week into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers and storms this
afternoon have formed primarily over the Mogollon Rim and to the
east with the higher terrain receiving most of the action.
Consistent southerly steering flow has kept thunderstorms moving
northward, limiting accumulation for individual storms. Training
storms could still present a threat of flash flooding. Of course,
any isolated storm has the potential to produce localized flash
flooding. CAMs show additional activity moving northward in
Coconino County towards the Kaibab Plateau and Grand Canyon later
this afternoon towards the evening. However, convection is not
expected to become widespread today with precipitation chances
decreasing rapidly with sunset.

Tuesday through Thursday...Models indicate that our monsoon ridge
and high pressure currently located over the Four-Corner region
will move westward, becoming centered over Arizona. This change in
position will cause temperatures to remain seasonally warm while
preventing additional moisture from being advected northward from
the Gulf of California. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast
to be roughly 5 degrees above normal. Precipitable water is
trending downward slightly tomorrow through Thursday with good
agreement from the EPS and GEFS. Rain chances decrease for most of
the area with the best chances for showers and storms over the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains each afternoon.

Friday into the Weekend...The ridge will shift again towards the
end of the week, heading eastward and back into a more favorable
position for monsoon activity. Southerly flow will bring another
surge of moisture to northern Arizona, leading to widespread
thunderstorms across the region. An inverted trough may enhance
activity as well during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...VFR conditions with mostly
light westerly winds. Isolated TSRA/SHRA mainly along and east of a
KGCN-KFLG-KPAN-KSOW line will continue through 03Z. Light winds
overnight with moderate westerlies tomorrow. The best chance of
storms Tuesday will be from KPAN-KSOW-KJTC beginning around 19Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot temperatures, westerly winds, and drier Tuesday
with the best chance for thunderstorms along the eastern Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains. Similar conditions Wednesday. Gusty winds
and heavy rainfall possible with storms.

Thursday through Saturday...Hot temperatures continue Thursday with
isolated to scattered storms in the afternoon. Moisture increases
Friday and Saturday with increasing chances and coverage of showers
and storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 6
PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ005-006.

&&

PUBLIC...JM
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
522 PM MST Mon Jul 18 2022

AZZ018-190045-
Northern Gila County-
522 PM MST Mon Jul 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gila County
just northeast of Payson through 545 PM MST...

At 521 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 1
mile northeast of Payson, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Star Valley, Mesa Del Caballo, Houston Mesa Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 260 between mile markers 254 and 259.
 State Route 87 near mile marker 255.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 11124 3427 11133 3438 11127 3434 11114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 212DEG 15KT 3422 11130

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJ