Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2022

Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 14, 2022Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 14, 2022, 2:30 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2022, 2:30 PM MST (21:30 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2022, 4:45 PM MST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 123 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -204 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3500 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 14, 10:25 AM MST, 4 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 10:25 AM MST, 4 hours 5 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1025 AM MST Thu Jul 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the coming
week with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially
across the higher terrain.

&&

.UPDATE... No significant changes were made to the forecast. The
POPs were edited to match the current radar. Throughout the day,
the POPs were changed to have increasing coverage to scattered and
numerous storm activity. The WPC has put western Yavapai and
Coconino Counties in a slight risk for flash flooding today.

This afternoon, the main hazards will be gusty outflows, small
hail, lightning, and heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1-2in per
hour are possible which will result in localized flash flooding.
There is a higher hail threat today with the increased
instability. Storms are forecasted to taper off around sundown.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /252 AM MST/...A strong high pressure system
remained centered near the Four Corners during the morning hours.
Over the next several days there will be little change in the
position or strength of the high with only a slight eastward
drift in response to a passing trough over the northwestern
states. The result, monsoon moisture isn't going anywhere. The
strength of the high will continue to inhibit full scale monsoon
activity across northern Arizona, especially the northeast corner
of the state.

For today...A decent thunderstorm complex over northwest Mexico
will likely push additional moisture across western Arizona as it
collapses this morning. The path of the moisture suggests that the
most vigorous thunderstorm activity will be along and southwest of
a line from extending from the Grand Canyon southeastward through
Flagstaff and Happy Jack. The flow aloft is weak and there is no
major source for lift so we are expecting mainly garden variety
thunderstorms with isolated dumpers capable of producing rainfall
in excess 2 inches. In general, beneficial rain for the majority
of locations. Storms will linger into the evening with any
showers or thunderstorms becoming isolated by midnight.

Friday and beyond...As mentioned, high pressure is expected to
remain in place with only subtle day-to-day variations in the
exact center of the high. Under this pattern moisture will remain
in place with the cycle of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
continuing. The most active thunderstorm weather will likely be
across the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim and Grand Canyon area
southward. Activity will generally be more isolated over the
northeast corner of the state, closer to the center of the strong
high and where lower moisture values will exist.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...Mainly VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. Light winds this morning will become
westerly with gusts of 15 to 20 kts. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop mainly after 20Z with greatest coverage
along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line. MVFR conditions possible
in heavier showers. Gusty and erratic winds are likely near
thunderstorms with lightning and small hail. Thunderstorms diminish
after 03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms are expected for today and
Friday. The best coverage will be along and south of the Mogollon
Rim. Gusty outflow winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will
be possible. Rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour are
forecast with stronger storms, resulting in possible flash flooding
on area burn scars.

Saturday through Monday...Shower and thunderstorm activity persists
each day through the weekend. Temperatures remain warm with westerly
afternoon winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MG/McCollum
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 14, 11:44 AM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 14, 12:02 PM MST, 2 hours 28 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 14, 12:59 PM MST, 1 hour 31 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 14, 1:54 PM MST, 36 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 14, 2:16 PM MST, 14 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:25 PM MST, 5 minutes before

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      <p id="message2">
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 10:22 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Coconino	38 min
Jul 14, 10:32 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	5 hr
Jul 14, 11:03 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 14, 11:08 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	52 min
Jul 14, 11:23 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 14, 11:41 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Jul 14, 12:02 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	43 min
Jul 14, 12:14 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Jul 14, 12:48 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 14, 12:59 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	31 min
Jul 14, 1:13 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 14, 1:40 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	50 min
Jul 14, 2:16 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	29 min
Jul 14, 2:41 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 14, 3:50 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	115 min
Jul 14, 4:04 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2022 Every flash flood warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.