Flash Flood Warning 281, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
913 AM MST Wed Aug 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing monsoonal moisture will bring greater storm
coverage to northern Arizona for the remainder of the week. Flash
flooding will be the main concern during this time.

&&

.UPDATE...Left over clouds and instability from yesterday are
moving across northern Arizona form east to west today. Radar is
picking up a few very light echoes over the Mogollon north of
Payson this morning. This mornings sounding from Flagstaff showed
an increase in moisture (PW increased from 0.59 to 0.79) from
yesterday. Satellite derived PW also shows around an an inch over
southern Yavapai County, south of the Mogollon Rim and portions
of southern Apache and Navajo counties. Current forecast shows a
general increase of thunderstorms which is handled well by the
current forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /248 AM MST/...High pressure is moving over the
Four Corners area which will allow for moisture to move deeper
across northern Arizona from the Gulf of California. Thunderstorm
coverage will increase significantly from the last couple of days
especially north of the Mogollon Rim. The greatest storm activity
will be along and south of the I-40 with flash flooding and gusty
outflow winds as the primary hazards.

The increased chances for thunderstorm activity look to continue
through the weekend before a dramatic downturn may take place
beginning Monday. Until then, be aware of your surroundings and
hike smart. Stay out of slot canyons, swimming holes and low water
crossings. Turn around, don't drown!

&&

AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop through this afternoon, with the
greatest storm coverage along and south of a KCMR-KFLG-KINW-KRQE
line. Expect gusty winds, and brief IFR visibilities, in the
vicinity of the strongest storms with light winds expected
elsewhere. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...Storm coverage will increase by this afternoon as
high pressure transitions towards the Four Corners. Outflow winds
and flash flooding will continue to be the main threats. Similar
conditions are expected Thursday with light winds outside of storm
activity.

Friday through Sunday...Expect good chances for thunderstorms each
day with gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of storms.
Otherwise, little change in temperatures with mainly light winds are
expected.

&&

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS/Kobold
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
835 AM MST WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW COTTONWOOD        34.72N 112.03W
08/23/2022                   YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            ROAD FLOODED AT FIR ST AND MONTE TESORO
            DRIVE. REPORT VIA FACEBOOK. WATER ESTIMATED
            TO BE 1-2 FEET DEEP.

&&

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
902 AM MST WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W PAULDEN             34.89N 112.48W
08/23/2022                   YAVAPAI            AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLASH FLOOD REPORTED ON BIG CHINO WASH BY
            YAVAPAI COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT. BCWA3
            REPORTED A 4.64 FT RISE.

&&

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1229 PM MST Wed Aug 24 2022

AZZ015-038-242000-
Western Mogollon Rim-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
1229 PM MST Wed Aug 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Coconino County
through 100 PM MST...

At 1228 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mountainaire, or 8 miles south of Flagstaff, moving northwest at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Flagstaff, Mountainaire, Kachina Village, Cave Springs Campground,
Pine Flat Campground, Sterling Fish Hatchery, West Fork Of Oak Creek,
Lower Lake Mary and Canyon Vista Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 66 between mile markers 192 and 195.
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 188 and 197.
 Interstate 17 between mile markers 326 and 339.
 State Route 89A between mile markers 385 and 398.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 11154 3497 11163 3501 11189 3526 11176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 112DEG 5KT 3508 11167

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ET