Flash Flood Warning 253, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
131 AM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across
northern Arizona again today, with a downturn in activity
forecast for early next week. Temperatures will be slightly below
average, with generally light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure located off the California coast will
continue today before shifting overhead early into the work week.
This will limit the northward progression of moisture across
northern Arizona. The best possible chances for showers and
thunderstorms look to be along and south of the Mogollon Rim
during this time - with the highest activity today before a
downturn begins tomorrow as high pressure reigns over the region.

Wednesday, that high pressure looks to anchor back over the sweet
spot of the Four Corners area. This will provide the moisture
advection needed for showers and thunderstorms to be capable
across all of northern Arizona. Anticipate this to remain as such
through Friday with the primary threat being flash flooding.
Models are hinting at a slight downturn for next weekend, however,
this is dependent on how the high pressure shifts. The good news
is the monsoon doesn't seem to be going anywhere!

&&

AVIATION...For the 12Z TAF package...Generally VFR conditions and
light winds. Showers and thunderstorms around 18Z with the most
active areas being over higher terrain. MVFR/IFR conditions and
gusty and erratic winds near storms. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, primarily
along and south of the Mogollon Rim with slightly reduced rain
chances by Monday. Light winds except near storms. Localized flash
flooding will be possible both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Rain chances remain each day with peak
activity in the afternoons. Light winds will persist away from
storms.

&&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Kobold
AVIATION...Kobold
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
111 AM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

AZZ008-037-210845-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
111 AM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwest Yavapai
County through 145 AM MST...

At 111 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Burro Creek Campground to
6 miles south of Ponderosa Park. Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bagdad, Wilhoit, Walnut Grove, Yava and Kirkland.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 89 between mile markers 282 and 300.
 State Route 97 between mile markers 156 and 166.
 Highway 93 between mile markers 149 and 157.
 State Route 96 between mile markers 0 and 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 11333 3467 11333 3441 11238 3419 11238
      3443 11334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 355DEG 19KT 3463 11335 3438 11246

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
139 AM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

AZZ008-037-210915-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
139 AM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

...Thunderstorms with gusty wind and heavy rain will impact portions
of southwest Yavapai County through 215 AM MST...

At 138 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Burro Creek Campground to near Peeples Valley to
near Crown King. Movement was south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Congress, Walnut Grove, Crown King, Wagoner, Yarnell, Peeples Valley,
Turney Gulch Group Campground, Glen Ilah and Hazlett Hollow
Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 89 between mile markers 258 and 285.
 State Route 71 between mile markers 98 and 109.
 State Route 97 between mile markers 156 and 159.
 Highway 93 between mile markers 149 and 194.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 11333 3433 11284 3432 11222 3399 11219
      3400 11275 3416 11333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0838Z 344DEG 24KT 3448 11338 3429 11283 3428 11229

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJ

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