Flash Flood Warning 249, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
158 PM MST Sat Aug 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...An active monsoon pattern will continue across
northern and central Arizona through Sunday. Heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding will continue to remain a threat. A
slight downturn in storm activity is forecast early next week,
especially north of the Mogollon Rim. Cooler temperatures are
expected through the weekend before warming up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It has been a slow start to thunderstorm activity
across our CWA today, but we are beginning to see some storms
fire up across northwestern Coconino County and near the White
Mountains. Although our 12Z sounding this morning came in lower
than what has been seen previously this week, there is still good
amounts of moisture in our atmosphere to tap into for the rest of
the afternoon/evening hours.

Sunday...We'll begin to see the northeasterly flow aloft move in
from the high pressure system positioning to our northwest. This
wind pattern will shuffle in drier air to the north/northeast
portion of our state, limiting the potential for thunderstorm
development in these areas. Areas along the Mogollon Rim and
south are still forecast to see isolated to scattered showers for
the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday onward...Storm chances through mid-week will mostly remain
for areas along I-40 and south as we continue to have drier air
for the north/northeastern portion of our CWA. Around Thursday,
model guidance is showing the high pressure system shifting back
toward the Four Corners region. If this movement holds true, we
could see additional active monsoon days toward the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...Scattered to numerous TSRA and
SHRA through 02Z along and south of KCMR-KSEZ-KSOW-KJTC line with
isolated TSRA elsewhere. Some areas will see showers and storms
through the evening hours. Light winds away from storms through
tomorrow. Similar conditions are expected Sunday with the most
active areas being over higher terrain. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, primarily
along and south of the Mogollon Rim with slightly reduced rain
chances by Monday. Light winds except near storms. Localized flash
flooding will be possible both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Rain chances remain each day with peak
activity in the afternoons. Light winds will persist away from
storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ008-011-013>018-
037-038-108-111-113>118-137-138.

&&

PUBLIC...Swenson
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff