Flash Flood Warning 152, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
310 PM MST Sun Aug 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Deep monsoonal moisture has returning to Arizona.
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are likely each afternoon
through the middle of the week. Flash flooding will again be the
main threat, especially near recent fire scars.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It has been an active day across northern Arizona
with scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms produced hail and heavy rain. Rapid runoff from recent fire
scars produce significant flooding around the Flagstaff area.

Deep monsoon moisture is expected to remain over northern Arizona
through much of this week. Thunderstorm activity will vary from
day to day...depending to some extent on how much cloud cover
remains from the previous day as that would limit surface
heating. The rainy season continues...

&&

AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...Scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through this
evening, tapering after 03Z. Periods of MVFR/IFR VIS and CIGS are
anticipated in and around any storms with gusty and erratic winds
during this time. Expect generally light winds with VFR conditions
outside of storms. SCT to BKN mid-level cloud cover overnight with
another round of storms anticipated for Monday afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

FIRE WEATHER... Storm activity continues this evening, diminishing
overnight. Daily chances for scattered to widespread thunderstorms
across northern Arizona persist for Monday and Tuesday as monsoonal
moisture increases. Main threats include flash flooding and gusty
and erratic outflow winds.

Wednesday through Friday...The active storm pattern is expected to
continue through the week with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms across northern Arizona. Flash flooding will be the
main concern during this time. Temperatures remain near average with
generally light winds outside of storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ008-018-037-038-108-118-
137-138.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
501 PM MST Sun Aug 7 2022

AZZ008-037-080015-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
501 PM MST Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yavapai County
through 515 PM MST...

At 501 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cordes Junction, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mayer, Cordes Junction, Cordes, Cordes Lakes and Spring Valley.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 17 between mile markers 255 and 272.
 State Route 69 between mile markers 263 and 274.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 11213 3436 11192 3419 11208 3439 11233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 052DEG 8KT 3437 11210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
529 PM MST Sun Aug 7 2022

AZZ013-014-040-080045-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
529 PM MST Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Apache and Navajo
Counties through 545 PM MST...

At 529 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Petrified Forest National Park, or 46 miles north
of Show Low, moving southwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holbrook, Sun Valley, Woodruff, Petrified Forest National Park and
Petrified Forest N.P. Visitors Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Business Interstate 40 between mile markers 286 and 289.
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 281 and 309.
 State Route 377 between mile markers 27 and 33.
 State Route 77 between mile markers 374 and 402.
 Highway 180 between mile markers 308 and 330.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 10998 3490 10965 3459 10996 3486 11034
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 039DEG 21KT 3489 10988

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ET

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