Flash Flood Warning 135, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 AM MST Mon Aug 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a warming trend for the start of this week,
with a decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity. Storm
activity will increase once again toward the end of this week,
with the Flash Flood concerns returning to the forecast by
Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...A nice and quiet morning across northern Arizona with
very little cloud cover to be seen which is different than what we
have been seeing lately. A less subdued day is forecast with
storms firing along the Mogollon Rim and towards the White
Mountains by early afternoon. This mornings sounding was a little
more unstable than expected so anticipate that we may still have
a fairly active day, though it should be less widespread than it
has been of late. Made some updates to the PoPs and sky grids but
other than that, the forecast looks to be on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /313 AM MST/...Mid-level high pressure will shift
westward for the next few days, bringing a more stable airmass to
the region and temporarily cutting off the deep moisture flow
from the Gulf of California. This will limit thunderstorm
development through about Wednesday, with the more active areas
being on the periphery of the mid-level high, leaving mainly
isolated to scattered activity in this CWA. This also means a
corresponding rise in daytime high temperatures, with at least a
5-10 degree jump, compared to last weekend.

By Thursday and beyond, the high shifts back eastward and the door
is opened for a moist and unstable airmass, once again. Expect an
uptick in activity during this time frame.

&&

AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...Mainly VFR conditions expected
with light winds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated this afternoon through 06Z Tuesday. Gusty, erratic
winds and periods of MVFR VIS and CIGS are possible in and near
thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered storms today and Tuesday.
Heavy rain and localized flash flooding continue to be the main
threats. Expect a warming trend, light winds and high humidity both
days. Gusty, erratic winds in and near storms.

Wednesday through Friday...The warming trend continues for Wednesday
with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures and
more widespread storms expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Meola/Peterson
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Kobold

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1253 PM MST MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 NNW ASH FORK         35.39N 112.54W
07/31/2022                   COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            LOCATION IS APPROXIMATE. FS 142 WASHED OUT
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. RECEIVED VIA PRIVATE
            MESSAGE.

&&

MMG