Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
935 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Round one of strong to severe thunderstorms has cleared the area
to the east with the next round moving northeast from central SD
into the southern valley and west central MN with increasing LLJ
and still 1000J/kg of MUCAPE to fuel the complex. CAMs continue to
push the activity through the region by 2AM.

Heat headlines have all been cancelled also.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to spread to the
northeast with the strongest one in the Fargo Moorhead area.
Expecting this storm to grow more linear southward and continue
to produce wind gusts in excess of 70mph in the favorable wind
gust with DCAPE around 1000J/kg. Attention turns to the
possibility of a second round of convection possibly severe
moving northeast from central SD.

Also trimmed the northern portions of the heat headlines and will
continues to as rain cooled air pushes south this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Severe storm threat the main challenge as highlighted by the SPC
outlook and mesoscale discussions. To summarize SPC, we now have a
better idea of what is possible this afternoon into the early
morning hours. Appears to be 2 rounds of severe storm potential.
Satellite and radar indicate the boundary of concern for the first
round across SE ND into NW MN. As forcing from an upper wave
approaching from South Dakota overrides this boundary, anticipate
storms to initiate. This area will be in a favorable zone of
instability (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG) and effective layer shear
(40-50 knots) for organized storms. Effective SRH is weaker so not
sure about supercell potential, but anticipate at least a
multicell severe storm threat will severe hail, wind, tornadoes,
and flash flooding all possible. Storm motion anticipated to be
parallel to the boundary, so anticipate linear mode/cold pool
development with some sort of complex into NW MN becoming mainly a
wind threat. The next round will be associated with a stronger
upper wave/upper jet that will arrive after 03z or so. This would
bring the potential for some sort of convective complex with 80+
mph winds the main threat, likely where instability remains after
the first round of severe (SE ND into WC MN).

Upper low propagates north of the region tomorrow, which should
limit any impacts across our region. Will be windy and will need
to consider wind advisory, plus any showers or potential
convection across NE ND and NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The extended forecast period looks to offer opportunities for
several types of impactful weather, ranging from strong to severe
tstms to another round of extreme heat.

Wed will feature nothing but a (near) windless summer day with high
temps near seasonal values from the upper 70s to mid 80s, before a
series of troughs badgers the region with chances for tstms during
the period from Thu through Sat. Main upper trough would look to be
east of the area by Sun.

Looking at temps, upper ridging is expected to redevelop in the
Southern Plains, and likely develop its crest into the Northern
Plains, but not nearly as amplified as the current upper ridge over
the region. This is well reflected by the clustered guidance
solutions. A dome of warmth underneath this ridge should reach into
the Northern Plains by Thu/Fri, likely reintroducing temps into the
90s. This is illustrated by NBM's 70 to 80% chance of at least 90F
within the RRV, at least for Thu. It remains unclear at this time
the magnitude of the moisture that will come with this heat, and
will likely drive potential impacts assoc with this heat.

By late weekend into early next week, northwest flow will become
established over the region, leading to mainly dry weather and near
seasonable temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Thunderstorms this evening with a chance for another round at
Fargo overnight. MVFR CIGs possible overnight in the wake of the
convection. NW winds tomorrow gusting to 20 to 30 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-
049-052>054-211015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions are expected once again today, with heat
index values around 100. Higher heat index values to 105 will be
possible within the Red River Valley this afternoon.

Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern ND and
northwest MN this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be
large hail up to 2 inches and damaging wind gusts over 80 mph.
Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Localized flash flooding will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday afternoon north of Highway
2. Small hail and occasional lightning would be the main threats.
Windy conditions may also be possible Tuesday, and gusts around
40 mph will be possible mainly from the Red River Valley and west.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-211015-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to 2 inches and
damaging wind gusts over 80 mph. Isolated tornadoes are also
possible. Localized flash flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday afternoon north of Highway
2. Small hail and occasional lightning would be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

NDZ038-039-049-210400-
Ransom ND-Barnes ND-Cass ND-
1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Ransom,
southwestern Cass and southeastern Barnes Counties through 1100 PM
CDT...

At 1030 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fingal to near Lucca to Sheldon. Movement
was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Alice and Sheldon around 1035 PM CDT.
  Embden, Chaffee and Leonard around 1045 PM CDT.
  Buffalo around 1050 PM CDT.
  Casselton, Durbin and Davenport around 1055 PM CDT.
  Wheatland around 1100 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Casselton Airport.

This includes Interstate 94 in North Dakota between mile markers 307
and 335.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4669 9769 4676 9801 4700 9757 4692 9716
      4672 9696 4663 9720 4663 9728 4660 9728
      4651 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 238DEG 47KT 4676 9786 4672 9764 4660 9752

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kent/MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1040 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 E GOODRIDGE           48.14N 95.63W
06/20/2022  M71.00 MPH       Pennington         MN   MESONET

            PEAK WINDS MEASURED AT A MNDOT RWIS ON HWY 1.

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N LEONARD             47.72N 95.27W
06/20/2022                   Clearwater         MN   PUBLIC

            A FEW LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN IN NORTHERN SINCLAIR
            TOWNSHIP.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1112 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BLUFFTON            46.50N 95.23W
06/20/2022                   Otter Tail         MN   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL BLUFFTON TOWNSHIP.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1123 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S WASKISH             48.15N 94.51W
06/20/2022  M59.00 MPH       Beltrami           MN   AWOS

            PEAK WIND AT THE WASKISH AIRPORT /KVWU/ MEASURED ON A ONE
            MINUTE OBSERVATION.

1120 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW ELBOW LAKE        45.99N 96.00W
06/20/2022  M62.00 MPH       Grant              MN   AWOS

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE ELBOW LAKE AIRPORT /KY63/
            POSTED ON THE ONE MINUTE OBSERVATIONS.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 W ELBOW LAKE         45.99N 96.21W
06/20/2022  M70.00 MPH       Grant              MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MESURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GREGORY.GUST