Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
409 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Another hot and humid day is in store to begin the work week. Look
for temperatures to soar into the upper 90s to just over 100
degrees, with the hottest temperatures occurring in the southern Red
River Valley. Thunderstorm activity is pushing southeastward this
morning out of Manitoba, with isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms possible through the morning hours. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. Looking at the
environment, DCAPE values of 1000 to 1400 J/Kg underscore the
potential for severe winds; however, the boundary layer inversion
will damp out much of the downward motion, leaving the question of
how much is able to get to the ground. As a result, any severe wind
gusts will likely be isolated.

As temperatures rise today, CAPE climbs to over 3000 J/Kg across a
good portion of the area. Another round of severe thunderstorms is
possible tonight into Tuesday morning as a strong H5 low dives
southeastward into the region. The instability and shear support
supercell development through the late afternoon in central North
Dakota. Once more, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible,
along with a tornado or two as effective shear will be favorable at
the low to mid-levels. MCS development is likely as supercells
undergo upscale development into line or bowing segments through the
nighttime hours.

For Tuesday, lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected to
remain through much of the day, with scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms possible through much of day as a low level jet
provides moisture and a source of shear to the environment. Hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

In the wake departing showers associated with Tuesday's system much
of the long term period will be dry with good model and or ensemble
agreement as NW flow aloft returns to the region. Impacts or
concerns return by the end of the week as timing of weak impulses at
this range remain a low predictability but bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Temps for the period will be on the warm side of
normal to slightly above with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed
through the weekend and lows generally in the low 60s with a few
upper 50s in the climatologically cool spots.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

VFR through the pd. But will need to watch for t-storm coverage as
near t-storms MVFR cig and vsbys possible. But very uncertain in
coverage the next 24 hours. Winds southerly but may turn more east
late today in NE ND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for NDZ014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ001>003-007-027-029>031-040.

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
526 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

MNZ004>006-008-009-013>017-022>024-028-032-NDZ006>008-191030-
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-Wadena-Towner-
Cavalier-Pembina-
526 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values will range from 92 to 98 degrees this afternoon. Isolated
to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
into the overnight hours. Hail up to 2 inches, damaging wind gusts
up to 70 mph, and tornadoes are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, with Hail up
to 1 inch and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ001>003-007-027-029>031-040-NDZ014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054-191030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-West Marshall-West Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Grant-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-
Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
526 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values will range from 100 to 104 degrees this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
this evening and into the overnight hours. Hail up to 2 inches,
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and tornadoes are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, with Hail up
to 1 inch and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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