Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Elevated storms continue to lift northward towards the Highway 2
corridor this evening, but the main severe complex is still to our
south over SD. While the best instability remains mostly to our
south, it has been creeping northward and there is the potential
for damaging straight line winds and even a QLCS tornado. The
storms are very quickly moving northward, and the severe line will
be moving into our southern counties within the next hour. CAMs
have the storms into our northern counties before midnight, which
is not out of the question given current forward movement.
Adjusted POPs for what we have currently going on and the expected
entrance of the SD severe line. Will continue to keep a close eye
on water issues as even though storms are moving quickly, they
have been efficient rain producers and many areas are already
saturated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Overview...

SW flow aloft has brought another system into the Northern Plains.
The surface low remains to our west today, with a warm front moving
NNE into the mid valley and NW Minnesota by this afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the cold front and
behind the warm front this afternoon and evening. Large hail up to 2
inches, wind gusts up to 75mph, a few tornados, and flash flooding
will be the main hazards this afternoon and evening. These could
bring property damage, damage to trees, vehicles, and sensitive
vegetation will all be possible. Have a way to receive alerts and
warnings this afternoon and evening.

Severe Threat Today...

Surface low pressure moves over western ND this afternoon and
evening, with the warm front translating NNE into the mid valley and
NW Minnesota. Current satellite and radar has a complex of storms
moving through central and eastern MN towards the Wisconsin area.
The cloud deck associated with these storms lingers in the eastern
valley towards NE MN. This would hinder some of the daytime heating
at times. There is also some low level clouds that have developed in
the James River valley towards eastern ND this afternoon. Some of it
is patchy dense fog towards the James River Valley. This would also
help to decrease temperatures this afternoon. Patchy blue skies are
filtering into the area especially east of the escarpment.

Now this plays into the development of storms this afternoon and
evening. For the thunderstorms to grow, we will need more sunshine
and heating at the surface to help break the CAP in the lower
levels. Short term guidance of the HREF and HRRR has a complex of
storms developing in central and eastern SD this afternoon and
shifting into the Red River Valley later this afternoon and evening.
MUCAPE ranges from the 3000-3500 J/kg range, and ML is in the 1500
J/kg range. Sounding profiles from the BIS and ABR area show deep
moisture through the mid to upper levels, with long CAPE through the
upper levels. Shear has been increasing across the area in the low
and mid levels this afternoon. Sfc to 3km shear is roughly 45-55kts,
while the sfc to 6km is around 50-70kts. Directional shear is
starting to take better shape, with a more curved hodograph through
the 4km level. Short term guidance has the warm front draped across
the mid valley this afternoon, but there is some uncertainty with
the exact extent of the northward push of the warm front. How far
north the front propagates, will determine the increased threats to
the mid and northern valley. The southern valley and west central MN
region looks to see the higher risk for tornadoes, as they will be
under the warm sector longer and have the sufficient shear and
instability available compared to the northern valley.

Guidance continues to show the possibility of discrete cells
developing ahead of the cold front, underneath the warm sector
during the later afternoon, with a stronger robust line developing
by the evening pushing into our region. So they may be a two round
punch of storms this evening, with the first under the warm front
and then the cold front push by the later evening hours. A LLJ looks
to set up in the evening and aid in the movement of the linear
storms along the cold front. This would increase the threat for
damaging winds especially from the mid valley southward. DCAPE
values are 800-1200 J/kg and inverted soundings near the surface
will also aid in the wind gust threat.

Flash flooding will also be possible in these storms, as they move
over areas already saturated from previous rainfalls. The ground is
having a hard time soaking up water. QPF is looking to be above an
inch across eastern ND and NW MN this evening and into tomorrow.
Locally higher amounts are possible from stronger thunderstorms.

So long story short there is a moderate risk for severe
thunderstorms across the southern valley. Other areas could see
scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Impacts are possible from large hail up to 2 inches,
damaging winds up to 75mph, possible flash flooding, and a few
tornados. Have a way to receive alerts this afternoon and evening.

Friday...

As the cold front moves out of the area tonight winds begin to
increase across North Dakota and into the eastern portions of the
valley. Vertical momentum and strong mixing in the lower levels
brings the increased wind gusts to the region. Guidance continues to
suggest wind gusts reaching 45-50kts at times in the Devils Lake
Basin and up to 45kts in the valley. The possibility does exist we
could see slightly higher gusts in the Devils Lake area up to 55kts
on an isolated basis through Friday. Thus we have issued a High Wind
Watch for the Devils Lake Basin down toward Barnes county from 12z
Friday through 02z Saturday. Impacts could be felt on east to west
roads on high profile vehicles.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Starting out, the 500mb pattern for Saturday, Sunday, and possibly
into Monday will feature a zonal flow pattern with a slow moving
closed low tracking across southern Canada. The FA may be close
enough to the low for afternoon convective showers and
thunderstorms, due to cyclonic flow. At this point, the coverage of
any of this type of activity looks pretty low and minimal. In
addition, wind speeds look a little gusty each afternoon, mainly
from a westerly direction. Temperatures overall look to remain near
or below normal.

For Tuesday through Thursday, the flow still looks to remain zonal.
There are a couple different signals for rain, one on Tuesday and
another on Thursday. At this point, the Tuesday chance looks better
along the North and South Dakota border. Not as sure about the
Thursday chance yet, but it will bear watching. Temperatures also
should remain slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Convection continues to move quickly northward across the forecast
area with all but KFAR currently seeing some VCTS along with MVFR
conditions. Will continue the trend of having VCTS and keeping
TSRA to the tempo groups for now. While KFAR is seeing a bit of a
break, additional thunderstorms moving in from SD will bring
convection and lower ceilings by 01Z. Convection will continue for
much of the evening, with periodic lower visibility, CBs in the
area, and variable winds near thunderstorms. The storms will lift
northward towards the international border by 05Z, but MVFR
ceilings will linger a bit longer before clearing out towards
morning. Some MVFR ceilings will return later in the period for
the KDVL area. Winds from the east will shift around to the
southeast then southwest by the end of the period, with some
strong gusts over 35 kts on the ND side by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Widespread overland and river flooding continues across the basin.
Flooding is likely to be exacerbated in some locations due to
upcoming rainfall with today's thunderstorm threat. After today, we
do look to enter a slightly quieter weather pattern, at least for a
short while.

Red River mainstem...

Renewed rises are expected at many locations along the Red mainstem
due to recent and upcoming precipitation. A prolonged period of
minor flooding is expected at Wahpeton and Halstad with moderate to
major flooding expected or already occurring at most other locations.

Minnesota tributaries...

A return to generally minor flooding is expected along some of the
Minnesota tributaries. The main exception is along the Snake River
where recent heavy rainfall is expected to bump Warren and Alvarado
back into the moderate flood category.

North Dakota tributaries...

The main action along the North Dakota tributaries continues to be
along the Sheyenne and Pembina Rivers. Releases at Baldhill Dam have
started again causing Valley City to pop back up above flood stage.
However, the greatest impacts at this time continue to be further
downstream on the Sheyenne. Major flooding continues on the Pembina
at Neche although river levels are slowly declining. Elsewhere, the
Wild Rice at Abercrombie remains above moderate flood stage while
the remainder of the tributaries are experiencing little to minor
impacts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Spender
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...Lee

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-132030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
328 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Storms move into the area this evening, and some supercells may
develop initially with a threat for a few tornadoes and hail
greater than 2 inches in size for areas south of the hwy 200
corridor. Then as storms merge those threats decrease some with
winds up to 75mph and flash flooding potential increases into the
late evening as storms merge and then move north and east exiting
the area around midnight.

River and overland flooding continues for portions of the Red
River valley along with the Devils Lake basin. Refer to the
latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on
specific locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Gusty winds up to 60mph are possible Friday, as a system moves
east of the region. This would be for areas in the Devils Lake
Basin down toward Barnes county. Thus a High Wind Watch was issued
for those areas. Areas in the valley could see gusts up to 50mph.
This could bring impact to travel especially on east to west
roads and high profile vehicles.

River and overland flooding continues for portions of the Red
River valley along with the Devils Lake basin. Refer to the
latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on
specific locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
722 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ006-009-016-017-130100-
North Beltrami MN-North Clearwater MN-South Beltrami MN-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
722 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Beltrami,
southeastern Lake of the Woods and northern Clearwater Counties
through 800 PM CDT...

At 722 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Lower Red Lake, or 39 miles northwest of Bemidji, moving
northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Upper Red Lake around 735 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Carp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northwestern
Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4768 9516 4787 9558 4793 9558 4877 9469
      4874 9464 4872 9459 4872 9456 4870 9454
      4869 9443 4870 9443 4806 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 226DEG 67KT 4799 9523

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Spender/JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
735 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW MOORETON           46.24N 96.92W
05/12/2022  M69 MPH          RICHLAND           ND   MESONET

            MOORETON NDAWN GUST AT 10M. COURTESY OF
            NDAWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
736 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             1 NNW VALLEY CITY       46.93N 98.01W
05/12/2022  U1.00 INCH       BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

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