River Flood Warning 28, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

The regional radars are showing the last band of mixed
precipitation working from the northern Red River Valley down into
the middle and southern Valley. On its current pace, it should
push out of the FA by noon. There may still be some lingering
light bands hanging around in some areas, so will keep an eye on
that. Was able to drop the Winter Weather Advisory for areas east
of the Valley a little earlier, with the remaining portion set to
expire at 18z. The only other thing to monitor is the High Wind
Warning. At this point, winds are in advisory criteria, but not
close to warning criteria. Not seeing any strong cold advection
today and pressure rises don't look all that impressive. The low
clouds may also be holding back some of the stronger wind
potential. Will keep an eye on what happens for the next hour or
two, and then make a decision about whether to keep the warning,
or transition back to an advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Current radar trends indicate two bands of higher snowfall
intensities from Argyle down to Hawley, with the northern end
getting into the Grand Forks area, and from Starkweather down to
Bald Hill Dam. Visibilities are ranging anywhere from one to four
miles, but with the current winds still expecting some patchy areas
of one-half mile visibility. Up to an inch additional snowfall
accumulation is expected tonight, so some blowing and drifting will
impact the morning commute, most notably with slick surfaces as
temperatures have gone below freezing in some areas.

Strong wind gusts up to 60 mph will continue through the day
tomorrow. Winds have fallen more in to the high end advisory range
in the overnight hours, however should increase again by mid-morning
with increased mixing and a bit stronger cold air advection. No
plans to change any headlines tonight, especially since this has
been the most impactful period of this event...and some travel
inconveniences can be expected during the morning commute.

Snowfall and sky will clear from NW to SE during the day, with
any remaining snow clearing the SE zones by 00Z. Temperatures will
rise above freezing across the area, so do expect any blowing or
drifting snow to end as the light coating melts, and have pulled
any BLSN aft 00Z Friday. Warmest temperatures will be over the
northwest, which should see at least partly sunny skies in the
afternoon. Looking for temperatures in the upper 30s to maybe 40
in the Devils Lake basin, with mid to low 30s elsewhere.

High pressure begins to slide over the area tonight into Friday, and
with the clearing skies and decreasing winds, temperatures should
fall well into the 20s overnight. Much sunnier Friday skies will
allow the mercury to climb into the 30s and 40s with warmer
temperatures as we go into the weekend (see long term discussion
below).

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Active spring pattern looks to persist into the extended time frame
with a couple chances for precip next week. General synoptic pattern
has good model agreement with progressive 500mb flow across much of
CONUS as a weekend ridge gives way to robust short duration short
wave Sunday then a more pronounced 500mb trough sets up to bring
precip chances for much of the mid week. Ensemble members remain
widespread for this mid week system so confidence in placement and
timing is what it is at this time range...relatively low.

Saturday will be dry with aforementioned 500mb ridge and sfc high
pressure moving across the region. Temps will be in the 40s for
highs through Tuesday and then in the 30s. A fast moving short wave
will bring the next round of precip chances with ensembles
indicating a 10 to 30% chance of a dusting of snow across the FA but
only a 10 to 15% chance of an inch in the far north with most of the
precip expected during the daytime Sunday. The low tracks quickly NE
with precip amounts of a quarter inch or less at 60 to 80% with just
a 10 to 20% chance of more than a half inch by Monday morning. Dry
Monday with the next round of precip chances quickly entering the
northern plains with a lead impulse of energy within the west to
southwest flow aloft expected during the daytime Tuesday. This
midweek system will be another spring system with plenty of moisture
to work with the probability of at least a quarter inch ranging from
35 to 70% from NE ND to west central MN. The probability of 1.0" of
QPF ranges from 10 to 40% across the same area. As for snowfall
amounts and impacts those will be determined from timing of precip
day vs night, temps and snowfall rates, that said the chance for at
least an inch ranges from 30 to 50% across the same areas as the
precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Predominantly MVFR with intermittent IFR in snow or rain-snow will
continue through mid-day, with extreme northerly winds putting the
damper on most GA flying opportunities today. While precipitation
will gradually clear from Devils Lake this morning to Fergus Falls
this late afternoon, the strong winds will continue throughout the
day. Most sites VFR this evening and during the overnight period.
Check latest icing forecast at aviationweather.gov/icing.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ008-
     016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     029-030-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Speicher

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