Freeze Warning 2, NWS Grand Forks, ND

282 
WWUS73 KFGF 280242
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
942 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

MNZ005-006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032-281400-
/O.CON.KFGF.FZ.W.0002.220928T0700Z-220928T1400Z/
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-
Including the cities of Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, 
Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Alida, 
Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, 
Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wolf Lake, Perham, New York Mills, 
Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, and Menahga
942 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29 expected.

* WHERE...Roseau, Lake Of The Woods, North Beltrami, North 
  Clearwater, South Beltrami, South Clearwater, Hubbard, East 
  Becker, East Otter Tail and Wadena Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NDZ007-015-026-054-281400-
/O.EXA.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.220928T0700Z-220928T1400Z/
Cavalier-Ramsey-Nelson-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Langdon, Devils Lake, Lakota, Mcville, 
Aneta, Tolna, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
942 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Cavalier, Ramsey, Nelson and Western Walsh Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MNZ001>004-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-039-049-052-053-281400-
/O.CON.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.220928T0700Z-220928T1400Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Mahnomen-West Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-Grant-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-
Traill-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, 
Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Detroit Lakes, 
Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
Barrett, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas,
Grafton, Park River, Grand Forks, Finley, Hope, Mayville, 
Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, 
Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton
942 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

985 
WWUS73 KFGF 280902
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

MNZ005-006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032-281400-
/O.CON.KFGF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220928T1400Z/
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-
Including the cities of Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, 
Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Alida, 
Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, 
Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wolf Lake, Perham, New York Mills, 
Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, and Menahga
402 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27.

* WHERE...Roseau, Lake Of The Woods, North Beltrami, North 
  Clearwater, South Beltrami, South Clearwater, Hubbard, East 
  Becker, East Otter Tail and Wadena Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

MNZ001>004-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040-NDZ007-008-015-016-
026-027-029-030-039-049-052>054-281400-
/O.CON.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220928T1400Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Mahnomen-West Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-Grant-Cavalier-Pembina-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-
Nelson-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, 
Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Detroit Lakes, 
Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
Barrett, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, 
St. Thomas, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, Lakota, Mcville, 
Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, 
Hatton, Portland, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, 
Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
402 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 30 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

066 
WWUS73 KFGF 281341
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
841 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

MNZ005-006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032-281445-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220928T1400Z/
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-
Including the cities of Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, 
Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Alida, 
Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, 
Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wolf Lake, Perham, New York Mills, 
Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, and Menahga
841 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures have recovered after their early morning lows.

$$

MNZ001>004-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040-NDZ007-008-015-016-
026-027-029-030-039-049-052>054-281445-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220928T1400Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Mahnomen-West Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-Grant-Cavalier-Pembina-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-
Nelson-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, 
Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Detroit Lakes, 
Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
Barrett, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, 
St. Thomas, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, Lakota, Mcville, 
Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, 
Hatton, Portland, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, 
Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
841 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures have recovered after their early morning lows.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
107 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Forecast panning out nicely with sfc high pressure sliding into
the area from the north and temperatures climbing into the 50s
outside of LOW.

Regarding frost/freeze potential tonight, our far eastern counties
within north-central MN look to hold best chance of seeing
freezing temps closer to center of high pressure which should help
lighten winds under 5 mph, as well as hold least likely chance of
seeing clouds filtering in from the NW. While locations within the
RRV could see temps to freezing mark, there is some chance thick
enough clouds could hinder radiational cooling, and location far
enough away from sfc high to keep a light wind through the
overnight. Still ironing details out for potential frost/freeze
headlines tonight.

Near critical fire weather conditions appear probable within the
Red River Valley where RH values should dip into the 20-30% range,
possibly locally lower in the far southern RRV, combined with
breezy winds between 15-25 mph. Higher winds are possible west of
the Valley, however gradually increasing dew pts should help RH
values from dipping below 30%.

UPDATE Issued at 940 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Expired the Frost Advisory as temperatures warm this morning.
Expecting a pleasant fall day today with light winds out of the
northeast and east, copious amounts of sunshine, and daytime temps
ranging from the lower 50s near LOW to lower 60s in eastern ND.

Still looking on track for another chilly night with frost and
freezing temps probable, but still looking into refining
locations for potential frost/freeze headlines tonight.

Additionally, we'll be looking into the potential for near
critical fire weather conditions in the southern Valley into
eastern ND for tomorrow afternoon given dry air mass and
increasing winds out of the south.

UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Some high clouds have decreased cooling off in the Valley this
morning. Places in northern Minnesota and North Dakota have
already reached 32 degrees, making it the first freeze of the
season. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Overall, a ridge building in the short term will keep most impactful
weather at bay. Frost/Freeze concerns still loom in the not too
distant future.

Heading into Tuesday, quiet weather will continue with highs in the
50s and low 60s across eastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota. Skies will remain mostly clear over the majority of the
area, with some clouds possible in the Devils Lake Basin and other
western parts of the FA.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning brings in more frost/freeze
concerns. Areas of cloud cover provide some hope that not too many
areas will get down to freezing, however, areas in the northern part
of Minnesota could as clouds will not become more widespread in
those areas until later in the morning. Lows in the 30s are
expected, with areas in the DVL Basin staying closer to 40 degrees
as clouds will move in faster. Make sure to bring in or cover
sensitive vegetation!

Wednesday will be another quiet day under high pressure. Scattered
clouds will remain across the area all day, with highs reaching the
60s, and some spots closer to central North Dakota almost reaching
70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Challenge for the extended forecast is temps and low pcpn chances
this weekend with little weather impacts. Overall a dry period with
temps above the long term normals as we move into October. NW flow
will given way to building ridge with prolonged southerly low level
flow in the wake of departing SFC high pressure. As a result warm
advection will bring low 70s back to the area for afternoon highs
starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend to Sunday. By
Monday a cold front will push across the region with highs in the
low 60s.

With respect to pcpn chances they remain rather low as confidence on
the evolution of the upper pattern remains unresolved. Will see a
weak cutoff low develop across the northern Rockies and brings the
better rain chances to the high plains. NBM guidance suggests a 15
to 25% chance for rain within the Friday night to Sunday night time
frame across the FA if any of the weak waves eject northeast out of
the meandering upper wave. The upper wave track and timing varies
widely when analyzing the 500mb cluster means. As such amounts will
be dependent on instability and mesoscale features which are yet to
be resolved but NBM probs for more than a tenth of an inch are
between 10 and 20% and only 5% for greater than a 0.25." Again not
very impactful based on current trajectory but given its harvest
time something to continue to monitor in case instability increases
or expected track brings the upper forcing closer to the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light winds
under 10kt today out of the northeast and east should become light
and variable overnight as surface high pressure passes near the
region. Winds increase out of the south after sunrise, becoming
gusty over 20 kt by midday for locations within the Red River
Valley and eastern North Dakota. There is a chance LLWS nearing 35
kt could develop overnight tonight as a low level jet develops
within the Dakotas. Left this potential hazard out of the TAF for
now due to marginal magnitude of wind speed.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...CJ
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
149 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053-
281900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-Grant-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-
Traill-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
149 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Frost will develop over portions of the Red River Valley tonight
between 2 to 9 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Breezy southerly winds and very dry air will contribute to near
critical fire weather conditions within the Red River Valley
Wednesady afternoon. Most conducive weather conditions are
expected between 1 to 7 PM CDT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ008-013>015-022-027-281900-
East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Mahnomen-West Becker-
149 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Frost will develop over portions of northwest Minnesota tonight
between 2 to 9 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ005-006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032-281900-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-
149 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Temperatures will fall at or below the freezing mark over
portions of northwest and west-central Minnesota tonight between
2 to 9 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
155 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040-290000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-Grant-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,
Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Elbow Lake,
Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, and Barrett
155 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

Relative humidity values will drop below 30 percent along with
southerly winds up to 25 mph across portions of the Red River
Valley Wednesday afternoon. Given the dry fuels, near critical
fire weather conditions are expected, particularly between 1 to 7
PM CDT. Any fire that does develop has the potential to quickly
spread.