Alert archive / North Dakota / Blizzard Warnings in 2022
Blizzard Warning 5, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this blizzard warning at Feb 1, 2022, 12:20 PM CST for Cavalier County, North Dakota. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 1, 2022, 12:20 PM CST (18:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 1, 2022, 8:00 PM CST
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
County Cavalier County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 162 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 278 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 791 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -214 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -129 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
519 WWUS43 KFGF 011820 WSWFGF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 MNZ002-003-029-NDZ026>030-038-039-049-052-053-020200- /O.CAN.KFGF.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220201T2100Z/ /O.EXB.KFGF.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ Norman-Clay-Wilkin-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes- Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Including the cities of Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Breckenridge, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until 8 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. && $$ NDZ007-020200- /O.EXP.KFGF.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220201T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KFGF.BZ.W.0005.220201T1820Z-220202T0200Z/ Cavalier- Including the city of Langdon 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST * WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Cavalier County. * WHEN...Until 8 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 35 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. && $$ NDZ006-014-015-024-020200- /O.EXP.KFGF.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220201T1800Z/ /O.EXB.KFGF.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ Towner-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy- Including the cities of Cando, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, and New Rockford 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...Blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Towner, Benson, Ramsey and Eddy Counties. * WHEN...Until 8 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. && $$ MNZ001-004-005-007-NDZ008-016-054-020200- /O.EXT.KFGF.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-Pembina-Eastern Walsh- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until 8 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. && $$ MNZ006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-020200- /O.EXT.KFGF.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington- Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail- East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant- Including the cities of Baudette, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, and Barrett 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...Until 8 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. && $$
2 follow-up statements
921 WWUS43 KFGF 012042 WSWFGF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 242 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 MNZ001-004-005-007-NDZ008-016-054-031800- /O.NEW.KFGF.WC.Y.0013.220202T0200Z-220203T1800Z/ /O.CON.KFGF.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-Pembina-Eastern Walsh- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 242 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills 30 below to 50 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota. * WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until 8 PM CST this evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. Use caution while outside. Wear appropriate winter clothing. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. && $$ NDZ007-031800- /O.NEW.KFGF.WC.Y.0013.220202T0200Z-220203T1800Z/ /O.CON.KFGF.BZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ Cavalier- Including the city of Langdon 242 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills 30 below to 50 below zero. * WHERE...Cavalier County. * WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until 8 PM CST this evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. Use caution while outside. Wear appropriate winter clothing. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. && $$ MNZ002-003-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006-014-015- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053-031800- /O.NEW.KFGF.WC.Y.0013.220202T0200Z-220203T1800Z/ /O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ Norman-Clay-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami- Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami- Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Benson-Ramsey- Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom- Sargent-Richland- Including the cities of Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Baudette, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Cando, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton 242 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills 30 below to 50 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 8 PM CST this evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas. Use caution while outside. Wear appropriate winter clothing. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. && $$
750 WWUS43 KFGF 020135 WSWFGF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 735 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 MNZ001-004-005-007-NDZ008-016-054-031800- /O.EXP.KFGF.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ /O.CON.KFGF.WC.Y.0013.220202T0200Z-220203T1800Z/ West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-Pembina-Eastern Walsh- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 735 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while outside. Wear appropriate winter clothing. && $$ NDZ007-031800- /O.EXP.KFGF.BZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ /O.CON.KFGF.WC.Y.0013.220202T0200Z-220203T1800Z/ Cavalier- Including the city of Langdon 735 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. * WHERE...Cavalier County. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while outside. Wear appropriate winter clothing. && $$ MNZ002-003-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006-014-015- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053-031800- /O.EXP.KFGF.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220202T0200Z/ /O.CON.KFGF.WC.Y.0013.220202T0200Z-220203T1800Z/ Norman-Clay-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami- Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami- Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Benson-Ramsey- Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom- Sargent-Richland- Including the cities of Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Baudette, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Cando, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton 735 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while outside. Wear appropriate winter clothing. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this blizzard warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard warning went out at Feb 1, 10:03 AM CST, 2 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 1, 10:03 AM CST, 2 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022
Low pressure in NW Ontario near Dryden Ontario at 15z. Clearing
has worked east into Bemidji/Wadena while clouds and lingering -sn
wraps back in southern Manitoba and areas in far NE ND/NW MN along
the border.
Consistent blizzard conditions continuing Rolla ND eastward to
just west of Roseau. Pockets of blizzard conditions extend south
from Roseau area thru the MN side of the RRV and also into
Mahnomen, Fergus Falls and Elbow Lake. SE ND is showing most
improvement but pockets of low vsby remain. Will continue assess
the situation and adjust headlines as needed. I am in no hurry to
clear BZW but at the same time dont want BZW out if no issues are
present.
UPDATE Issued at 732 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022
We are seeing likely HCR/convective snow shower signatures on
radar and snow reports associated with some of these likely
leading to additional visibility impacts even in sheltered
locations when the pass over. Some obs sites are showing some
improvement, but looking at webcams open country blizzard
conditions are ongoing in eastern ND and into parts of the RRV in
MN. 925MB winds appear to have peaked earlier, but are still
mixing well enough to produce frequent gust 35 to 45 mph. As
winds continue to diminish through late morning/midday expect
improving conditions, but as temperatures continue to fall and at
least gusts to 30 mph would still maintain some blowing/drifting
snow impacts (though Blizzard conditions are likely to end before
the afternoon). We will hold onto current products and monitor
trends thorugh the morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022
Blizzard conditions expected to impact eastern ND and parts of
northwest MN through the morning hours, possibly into the early
afternoon. Very low wind chills develop later this afternoon and
continue into Wednesday.
The main area of accumulating snow with the mid level short wave has
pushed into our northeast CWA early this morning, however a second
area of light snow has spread into the Devils Lake Basin within
cyclonic flow/CAA. Winds have increased as expected with the surge of
CAA and strong gradient alighting across our west where mixing has
allowed winds as high as 70 mph to develop. Further east we have
seen gusts to 45 mph, but short range guidance shows stronger winds
arriving in the immediate Red River Valley with the northwest shift in
speeds expected through 12Z/6AM and this matched well with the
trends in surface obs.
There were questions about whiteout conditions occuring due to
freezing rain yesterday in northeast ND and older snow pack
elsewhere. Those questions have been answered as either due to
falling snow in the northwest or the crust breaking we are now
getting reports of whiteout conditions from Langdon to Devils Lake to
Valley City, and this is with temperatures in the teens. As
temperatures drop to the singled digits by 7am blowing snow models
show whiteout coverage/potential only increasing, and as the window
for strong winds remains into the morning hours this will likely
result in increasing impacts in the RRV as well.
The timing for these impacts aligns with the morning travel period
and we did not want to wait and see how the snow pack will hold
further east considering the trends in the west. There have already
been signatures of now regional radars showing potential HCR/snow
showers developing and considering the steep lapse rates through the
afternoon it is possible these showers also combine with ongoing wind
to expand impacts. As a result we replaced the Winter Storm Warning
with a Blizzard Warning in all counties with the worst conditions
expected this morning. There will be an improving trend midday into
the afternoon as winds start to diminish, however they may still be
strong enough with falling temperatures for ongoing impacts at least
in some areas. So, I left timing as is with the warning expiring
early this afternoon and we can adjust based on trends as needed
(cancel early or extend later).
Late afternoon-Wednesday: As blowing snow impacts diminish colder
temperatures return and we expect low wind chill values to develop
at least within advisory criteria (-25) by the late afternoon into
the evening and possibly as low as -40 tonight and Wednesday
morning. The combination of sub zero temperatures and wind gusting
to 25 mph at times could lead to further drifting or minor blowing
snow impacts during the day Wednesday. Ultimately we will probably
need to consider a Wind Chill Advisory if not a Warning for some
areas. For now we wanted to keep things focused on the
morning/midday impacts and avoid confused message, and we will
consider those products as blowing snow impacts wind down today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022
The extended period presents several impacts to include dangerously
cold wind chills and another chance for accumulating snow. An Arctic
air mass settles into the region Wednesday night, allowing our
temperatures to fall to near or slightly colder than 30 below zero.
Winds will be in the 10 to 15 mph range, bringing the wind chill
values to near 50 below zero through Thursday morning.
Temperatures climb into the single digits either side of zero on
Thursday as slightly warmer air and cloud cover work into the area
during the afternoon. This will be in response to a weak shortwave
that will also bring a slight chance for light snow overnight
Thursday into Friday, with otherwise quiet weather expected through
the day.
We are watching for a potential system as we head into Friday and
Saturday, as several ensemble members develop a moderately strong
upper low. The pattern is very similar to the previous several
storms, with a potential for light snow and gusty winds; however, at
this distance, there is much room for uncertainty and thus this
remains a low confidence event for now. Current timing on this
potential system brings the system through the area Friday night
through Saturday afternoon.
The forecast looks quiet from Saturday night through Tuesday, with
gradually warmer temperatures each day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022
Poor flight conditions with many locations expected to have VLIFR
at times due to strong winds and blowing snow behind a cold front
through the morning hours in eastern ND and parts of northwest MN.
Reports of 50kt or greater winds have occurs across portions of
eastern ND including DVL and similar gusts are possible through
midday. Winds gradually back off late morning into the afternoon,
and conditions will gradually improve as a result. during the
afternoon additional light snow showers can't be ruled out however
confidence in impacts at terminals is lower, so I limited -sn to
the periods this morning where obs/radar are supporting these
conditions. By 00Z prevailing VFR conditions should return with
northwest winds around 12kt through the remaining TAF period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ008-016-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
Blizzard Warning until noon CST today for NDZ006-007-014-015-024.
MN...Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001>005-
007-029.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ006-
008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...DJRHazardous weather outlook, Feb 1, 6:18 AM CST, 6 hours 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 618 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 MNZ001>007-029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054- 021230- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-Wilkin-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey- Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes- Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh- 618 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Strong winds gusting 45 to 65 mph in eastern ND and 40 to 50 mph in northwest MN will lead to blizzard conditions especially in open country. There are areas of snow also moving through the region, and while they are producing little to no accumulation, they are also contributing to reductions in visibility. The strongest winds decrease by midday today and this should allow blowing snow impacts to diminish. Very low wind chills 25 to 40 below are then expected to arrive by late afternoon and continue through Wednesday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Dangerous wind chills 25 to 50 below continue through the day Wednesday through Friday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MNZ008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-021230- East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk- North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard- West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena- Grant- 618 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight West to northwest winds gusting to 45 mph will lead to reduced visibility in blowing snow. There are additional areas of light snow that will bring little to no additional accumulation, however they will lead to additional visibility reductions. Expect improving conditions this afternoon as winds decrease. Very low wind chills 25 to 40 below are then expected to arrive this evening and continue through Wednesday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Dangerous wind chills 25 to 50 below continue through the day Wednesday through Friday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Feb 1, 6:44 AM CST, 5 hours 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0642 AM BLIZZARD ERIE 47.11N 97.39W
02/01/2022 CASS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED BY CASS COUNTY
SHERIFFS OFFICE AROUND CTY RD 26 AND CTY RD
5. VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.
&&Local storm report, Feb 1, 6:45 AM CST, 5 hours 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0644 AM BLIZZARD BARNESVILLE 46.65N 96.42W
02/01/2022 CLAY MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
SARGENT REPORTED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AROUND
HWY 9 NORTH OF THE CITY OF BARNESVILLE.
&&Local storm report, Feb 1, 7:40 AM CST, 4 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
740 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE COOPERSTOWN 47.42N 98.10W
02/01/2022 M63 MPH GRIGGS ND AWOS
AWOS STATION KS32 COOPERSTOWN AP ND.
0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 NW MOSE 47.69N 98.62W
02/01/2022 M63 MPH EDDY ND MESONET
MESONET STATION 325749 MCHENRY ND 8 N.
0435 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW VALLEY CITY 46.93N 98.02W
02/01/2022 M62 MPH BARNES ND AWOS
AWOS STATION KBAC VALLEY CITY AP ND.
1120 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N BRINSMADE 48.25N 99.33W
01/31/2022 M61 MPH BENSON ND MESONET
MESONET STATION 326490 NILES ND 3 SE.
&&Local storm report, Feb 1, 8:49 AM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
849 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0846 AM BLIZZARD DONALDSON 48.57N 96.90W
02/01/2022 KITTSON MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUOUS
VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE FOR OVER
THREE HOURS.
&&Local storm report, Feb 1, 11:46 AM CST, 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM BLIZZARD FORMAN 46.11N 97.64W
02/01/2022 SARGENT ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
SEEN ON THE ND11 CAMERA FOR AT LEAST THREE
HOURS BEFORE THE REPORT TIME.
0605 AM BLIZZARD CRARY 48.07N 98.64W
02/01/2022 RAMSEY ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
SEEN ON THE US2 CAMERA FOR THREE HOURS PRIOR
TO REPORT TIME.
0714 AM BLIZZARD GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
02/01/2022 GRAND FORKS ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
SEEN ON SB I-29 CAMERA FROM THE 3:48AM TO
THE 7:14AM IMAGE.
0735 AM BLIZZARD TENNEY 46.04N 96.45W
02/01/2022 WILKIN MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
SEEN ON THE US75 CAMERA FROM THE 4:00AM
IMAGE TO AROUND THE 7:35AM IMAGE.
0239 AM BLIZZARD WARROAD 48.91N 95.32W
02/01/2022 ROSEAU MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
SEEN ON THE MN11 CAMERA FOR AT LEAST THREE
HOURS PRIOR TO THE REPORT TIME.
0817 AM BLIZZARD BELTRAMI 47.54N 96.53W
02/01/2022 POLK MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
SEEN ON THE MN9 CAMERA FROM THE 4:46AM IMAGE
TO THE 8:17AM IMAGE.
0715 AM BLIZZARD LANCASTER 48.86N 96.80W
02/01/2022 KITTSON MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
SEEN ON THE US59 CAMERA FOR AT LEAST THREE
HOURS PRIOR TO THE REPORT TIME.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 3:18 AM CST | Blizzard Warning | FGF | Barnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Eddy, Grand Forks and 11 more | 17 hr |
| Feb 1, 2:42 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | Barnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Eddy, Grand Forks and 11 more | 3 days |
Nearby
Blizzard Warnings in North Dakota, 2022Every blizzard warning in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.