Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

A cold front will bring active weather to the outlook area tonight
and early tomorrow. There will be a couple of rounds of
precipitation, one during the overnight hours and the second during
the mid to late morning with the front.

The cold front in question is still back over the central part of
the country, while a warm front is situated across the Gulf Coast.
The warm front isn't expected to move much further north across GA,
but will push northward across southeast MS and into central AL
before the cold front arrives. So,the forecast area isn't expected
to be within the warm sector overnight - that should stay to the
west. However, do expect storms to develop out ahead of the front
overnight and impact the CWA. Good forcing in the mid levels, strong
upper divergence and steepening mid level lapse rates will combine
for the chance of elevated convection overnight. Not expecting a lot
of potential for severe weather during the very early hours of the
morning, but the potential will increase towards 12Z as the actual
cold front approaches from the NW.

The front should begin approaching the NW corner of the CWA just
before 12Z. The models have been fairly consistent with timing from
run to run. There are some slight differences between the hi-res
convective models, but most of them are indicating the two waves of
precip - overnight (ahead of the front/elevated) and a second round
with the front. The front will be moving through a low cape/high
shear environment, so a QLCS type structure is anticipated.

With the storms being elevated later this evening and into the very
early morning hours, the potential for severe weather remains low.
However, the potential for strong storms/isolated severe storms will
increase with the front as they become more surface based. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary hazard from any strong/isolated
severe thunderstorms. An isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out
early on as the front approaches, but the shear should become more
unidirectional with time.

A secondary hazard will be locally heavy rainfall. With Multiple
rounds of precipitation, locally heavy at times, some localized
flooding will be possible. This potential should be highest along
and north of the I-85 corridor. In this area, 1 to 2 inches of rain
is likely with some 3"+ amounts possible.

Winds will be gusty behind the front tomorrow and temperatures near
or just slightly below normal are anticipated.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

Long term forecast begins on Thursday with sfc pressure built in
over much of the southeast, limiting moisture across our area until
the weekend. Once the weekend gets here, moisture starts to flow in
from the west-southwest in the mid levels and the sfc providing
ample moisture for the northern portions of Georgia.  As a result,
PoPs have been kept mainly to the northern portion of Georgia
through the middle of next week. Severe weather indices seem to be
staying minimal at this point through the long term, so only showers
were mentioned.

With the high pressure max temps look to top out at the 55-60 degree
range and then as the moisture starts to funnel in, temps look to
max out in the 65-75 degree range.  Min temps are also looking to
stay in the mid to upper 50s through the middle of next week
providing a very moist environment. Referencing climatology, the min
temps this weekend look to be 15-20 degrees above climatology for
this time of year with the max temps being 10-15 degrees above
normal.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

No major timing changes for the organized line of convection
coming through overnight. There is some potential for thunder
before the main line, but will be very difficult to time and can
be handled better as the system nears. A wind shift to the NW will
be likely after the line. MVFR conditions expected after 06Z with
some potential of IFR during the heaviest rainfall. Clearing by
early afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...Avi Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  68  32  55 /  90  90   0   0
Atlanta         58  64  34  53 / 100  80   0   0
Blairsville     50  55  27  53 / 100  60   0   0
Cartersville    56  62  29  55 / 100  60   0   0
Columbus        61  70  36  58 /  80 100   0   0
Gainesville     53  64  33  54 / 100  80   0   0
Macon           60  72  34  60 /  60  90   0   0
Rome            59  62  31  55 / 100  50   0   0
Peachtree City  58  67  31  55 / 100  90   0   0
Vidalia         59  71  40  60 /  20  70  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1024 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1024 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A developing frontal system will move into West GA tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight with the greatest
threats being gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent
lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

The frontal boundary from tonight will continue moving south and
east through the state Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this front and some storms may become strong to
severe with the biggest threats being gusty winds, periods of
heavy rain, and frequent lightning strikes. Although a very low
risk at this time, a brief tornado is also possible, mainly across
SW portions of the state.

More rain is expected by the weekend but no hazardous weather is
expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
503 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

GAZ001>003-292245-
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
503 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Catoosa,
Walker and Dade Counties through 545 PM EST...

At 502 PM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Haletown (guild) to New Hope to near Stephensville to
near Higdon, and moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Chickamauga, Lookout Mountain,
La Fayette, Chattanooga Valley, Rising Fawn, Noble, Cole City,
Wildwood, Fairview, Stephensville, Linwood, Chattanooga  Valley, New
England, Morganville, Hooker, Cloudland Canyon State Park and Cooper
Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8526 3487 8525 3470 8525 3462 8524
      3461 8553 3486 8559 3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 276DEG 31KT 3502 8555 3500 8563 3492 8559 3481
8569

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

07

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