Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

As the short term period begins, a persistent cluster of storms is
moving slowly southward through western Georgia, with strong to
severe thunderstorms ongoing. These storms have produced gusty,
damaging winds along with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
Deep moisture remains in place across central Georgia, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and precipitable water values of
1.8 to 2.2 inches. Coverage of thunderstorms is expected to increase
across central Georgia in the mid to late afternoon hours and
temperatures warm into the low 90s and SBCAPE values increase to as
high as 4000 J/kg.

While the atmosphere across much of north Georgia appears to be
worked over from the line of showers and thunderstorms with the MCS
earlier, the possibility of redevelopment later this afternoon and
evening is in question. Lingering upper level clouds have begun to
erode across north Georgia and temperatures are gradually
increasing. SPC mesoanalysis indicates that instability could build
back in and overspread north Georgia. Therefore, the possibility
remains that the atmosphere could destabilize enough to support the
development of another round of thunderstorms in the late afternoon
and evening in portions of north Georgia.

Overnight, there is the potential for a few areas of patchy fog to
develop especially over areas that received plentiful rainfalL.
Tomorrow, convective activity could return primarily focused across
central Georgia. SBCAPE is not as robust tomorrow running closer to
1500-2000 J/kg, but strong thunderstorms could be possible.
Tomorrow, temperatures will be a little warmer today in the mid 80s
to low 90s.

KAL/King

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

To start off our period, the CWA will be sandwiched between two mid-
level ridges, one that has been persistently centered over the four
corners and affecting the western US and the Bermuda high that is
off the Atlantic coast. The deep moisture axis associated with the
surface boundary will stay draped across central and southern
Georgia as well as a surface lee-side trough dipping into northern
Georgia. This will ultimately give us the chance for scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms which are common for summertime
in Georgia. Sunday into Monday looks to have the ridge centered over
the four corners inch eastward putting our forecast area under an
area of high pressure. With model guidance not completely in
agreement and a moisture axis centered over southern Georgia, i
chose to keep some PoPs for the afternoon time frame on Sunday and
Monday and the chance for thunderstorms is also possible.  The
temperatures as a result will begin to climb into the mid 90s but
the afternoon showers and thunderstorms look to keep the
temperatures down enough to bring down the apparent temps.  The
guidance has backed off a bit on apparent temps reaching heat
advisory criteria, but as time goes on that could change so don't
count the possibility out. Tuesday continues the uncertainty with
the ridge placement.  As outlined in the previous discussion the
ECMWF and GFS are in disagreement on the positioning of the ridging,
with ECMWF having the ridge retreating west and putting us in
between ridges again, while the GFS has the ridge firmly centered
over the southeast.  Because of this I chose to keep low chance PoPs
over the area for showers and thunderstorms.  On Wednesday there does
look to be some moisture returning to northern Georgia as the trough
starts to dip into Tennessee again.  This will be short lived though
as the Bermuda high looks to move over the forecast area, limiting
PoPs and raising temperatures again.

Hernandez

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions this afternoon and evening with the
chance for more SHRA/TSRA between generally 20-02Z. Both cigs and
vsbys are anticipated to go IFR/LIFR at all TAF sites in the early
morning hours generally after 10Z returning to MVFR around
14-15Z. VCSH possible in the morning at MCN/CSG and in the early
afternoon at ATL. WSW winds between 5-10KT could gust up to
25-30KT in any storms that develop.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on TSRA and vsbys. Medium confidence on cigs. High
confidence on all other elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  72  93 /  40  40  40  30
Atlanta         72  89  73  92 /  60  50  40  40
Blairsville     66  89  65  90 /  40  20  20  20
Cartersville    70  91  71  93 /  60  30  30  20
Columbus        73  88  73  90 /  60  70  60  40
Gainesville     71  90  72  92 /  40  40  30  30
Macon           73  90  72  92 /  60  70  60  40
Rome            72  96  72  97 /  50  10  20  20
Peachtree City  70  88  71  91 /  70  60  50  40
Vidalia         74  91  73  92 /  30  70  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...KAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
954 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221400-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
954 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A line of strong storms currently extending from Rome to Athens
has been moving south through north Georgia this morning causing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. This line is
slowing and will move southeast throughout the morning. As the
line slows the threat will shift to flooding considering the
widespread areas of heavy rain in occurring in urban areas and
areas that have already received heavy rainfall.

Another round of thunderstorms will possibly develop later this
afternoon and potentially organize into a strong line of storms
which will move south through the area. Damaging winds will be the
main threat which may result in downed trees due to wet soils
from previous days rains. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall
will also be possible with any storms today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
across much of the forecast area this weekend into next week.
Some storms each day could become strong to severe capable of
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall,
however no widespread severe threat is anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

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