Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
329 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

The shortwave aloft will bring active weather to north and central
Georgia in the short term period. Current radar loop shows scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Georgia this
afternoon. More scattered to widespread diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to ramp back up this afternoon across
the forecast area. However, north Georgia has been worked over a
good bit after the wave this morning/early afternoon brought
activity to the area. Satellite imagery is currently showing that
there has been some clearing in cloud coverage over these areas,
which may allow for sufficient heating to occur and thus
destabilization of the atmosphere this afternoon. Once again, CAMS
are struggling to resolve the spatial and temporal nature of showers
and thunderstorms, but there does seem to be some agreement that
this afternoon will return to a period of relatively active weather.
While SPC's Day 1 Outlook has much of our forecast area in a
Marginal Risk today, the primary hazard will be damaging winds and
frequent lightning in any thunderstorms that develop. Additionally,
flash flooding will remain a concern, particularly over northwest
Georgia where training storms earlier today dropped several inches
of rain. With this morning's sounding clocking in at 1.91" for PWATs
and a moist vertical profile, there will be plenty of moisture
available for periods of locally heavy rainfall within any storms
that develop today. Convective activity will likely continue tonight
and through the early morning hours. Tomorrow, as the shortwave
slowly progresses eastward, much of the same forecast will be on
tap. A brief lull in activity may occur early in the morning before
activity ramps back up with daytime heating. Max high temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s are hovering around climatological
normals while low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are
slightly above normal.

KAL

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Looking into the long term, the first thing to note is the slight
risk for portions of western central Georgia on Thursday outlined by
SPC. Deep moisture will be in place across the area, with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s and precipitable water values ranging from
1.8 to 2.2 inches across the forecast area on Thursday, and persist
through much of the period. Thursday looks to place a leeside trough
over the northern portion of the forecast area, which will provide
additional moisture to keep PoPs higher. A front will approach the
northern portion of our CWA Thursday night into Friday morning which
will also fuel moisture and thus the increased pops for portions of
Georgia.  Will be interesting to see the interaction with the front
and leeside trough but that will remain to be seen. This would allow
for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across north and
central Georgia.

With the aforementioned deep moisture and highs increasing into the
low to mid 90s on Thursday afternoon, diurnal instability is
expected to be strong during the peak heating hours. SBCAPE values
are forecast to increase to 4000-5000 J/kg across much of the area.
A look at forecast sounding profiles indicates tall, fat CAPE - the
"Hefty Chonker" of CAPE, if you will. Furthermore, DCAPE values are
forecast to be above 1000 J/kg and 700-500 mid-level lapse rates are
anticipated to be around 7 C/km during this time. As a result, the
main threat with strong to severe storms that develop will be wind
gusts with possible water-loaded microbursts. The primary storm mode
will likely be multicell clusters as storms are able to develop and
organize along cold pools from strong downdrafts.

Surface high pressure will build over the northern Gulf of Mexico
and portions of the Southeast CONUS late Friday and into Sunday.
Highest PoPs are expected to be confined to central Georgia on
Friday. Then, the influence on this high pressure will serve to
inhibit convective development over north and central Georgia during
the weekend, with PoPs being limited to slight in north Georgia and
low-end chance in central Georgia during the afternoon hours each
day. With the relatively lower rain chances will also come more
sparse cloud coverage. As a result of this and height increases
under the high pressure, afternoon high temperatures are expected to
be between 3-7 degrees above climatological averages, in the mid
90s, across much of the area on Saturday and Sunday. With humid
conditions and dewpoints in the 70s also expected to persist, heat
index values could climb over 100 during the afternoon hours this
weekend. Isolated locations could also approach 105 degrees, so the
need for a Heat Advisory will need to be evaluated as we get closer
in time.

King/Hernandez

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Chance of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon through the
overnight/early morning hours. VFR conditions will persist until
tomorrow morning after 12Z where MVFR cigs develop with FEW/SCT
IFR. Another round of SHRA/TSRA anticipated in the morning. SW
winds throughout the TAF cycle at 5-10KT.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA. High confidence on all other
elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  74  92 /  60  60  40  60
Atlanta         73  90  75  92 /  60  50  50  60
Blairsville     65  85  69  87 /  70  60  60  60
Cartersville    71  90  73  92 /  70  50  40  60
Columbus        74  93  76  93 /  30  30  30  60
Gainesville     70  88  74  90 /  70  60  50  60
Macon           73  93  75  94 /  40  50  40  60
Rome            72  94  75  95 /  60  50  40  60
Peachtree City  71  91  74  92 /  50  50  40  60
Vidalia         73  92  75  93 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....King/Hernandez
AVIATION...KAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1111 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201515-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1111 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across portions
of north and central Georgia today. A few storms could become
strong to severe, capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent lightning as the main threats. Locally heavy
rainfall associated with stronger storms may lead to isolated
flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
across much of the forecast area this week and into the weekend.
Some storms could be strong to severe with strong to damaging wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall as the main
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

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