Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

The short term forecast will be characterized by at least two more
"drier" Georgia summer days. With a front boundary bisecting the
FA sufficient moisture will continue to be locked in across the
southern portions of the CWA with drier air congregated across
north GA. This will result in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon primarily along and south of I-20.

South to southwesterly surface flow south of the stalled boundary
will continue to transport moisture across the area. As a result
the The atmospheric column will continue to be saturated with PWs
nearly 2 inches and surface dew point temperatures in the mid
70s. During the rest of the afternoon/evening, aided by influence
from the weak front and weak disturbances rounding the upper
ridge to our west and the trough aloft and differential heating
chance PoPs continue to look reasonable. This afternoon the HREF
has the area painted with over 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. All of this to
say that yet again we could see a few isolated storms become
strong to severe. CAMs continue to do poorly in this environment,
but in general they show they storms continuing across the far
southern portions of the FA and primarily staying south of I-20.
With very little steering flow aloft and high PWs storms will also
be capable of producing heavy rain and localized flooding.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today with an increase seen in
PoP coverage. Todays stalled front will dissolve overnight
allowing southerly flow to return to the entire Peach State. This
will advect moisture further north and again aided by influence
from weak disturbances rounding the upper ridge to our west and
the trough aloft along with differential heating slight chance to
chance PoPs continue in the forecast.

Temperatures will continue to run in the upper 80s and low 90s
each day with lows only falling into the 70s.

28

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Relatively active convective pattern expected thru the period.
Some tropical moisture looks to advect into part of the area by
Sunday and an upper disturbance will approach the area by Monday
allowing for some more widespread chances of showers and storms.
The upper wave looks to have some dampening Tuesday and Wednesday
as it pushes eastward across the area and the other main trough
energy loses phase ejecting NEWD, though some of the enhanced
moisture field lingers so will maintain mainly chance pops.
Another piece of upper energy looks to translate a sfc front
toward the area from the NW for Thursday so have most of the area
in likely pops and progged SBCAPE looks increased as well with
high PWATs so there could be a bit more organized or stronger
convection with strong to damaging winds and hail that day.
Otherwise cannot rule out some strong to isolated severe storms
the rest of the days with a bit more limited marginal instability.
Friday may have some frontal progression southward and could trend
to lower pops in the north. Max temps generally near to slightly
above normal thru the period.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period at most TAF sites.
MCN/CSG could see MVFR/IFR in patchy fog tomorrow early morning
with improvements expected by 15Z tomorrow. TSRA will likely only
impact CSG/MCN between 20-00Z. There is an outside chance that the
ATL metro sites could see some very isolated convection, but
confidence remains too low to include it in this forecast. NE
winds will remain light at 5 kts or less through 06Z and then
shift to the south at 5 kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on TSRA and low CIG development and timing.
High on all other elements

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  90  70  91 /  10  30  20  30
Atlanta         70  90  71  90 /   5  30  20  30
Blairsville     64  86  65  85 /   5  30  20  50
Cartersville    69  92  71  91 /   5  20  20  30
Columbus        71  90  71  91 /  10  30  20  30
Gainesville     69  89  70  88 /  10  30  20  40
Macon           69  90  70  93 /  10  30  20  30
Rome            69  94  71  94 /   5  20  10  30
Peachtree City  69  90  69  90 /   5  20  20  30
Vidalia         70  87  71  89 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1144 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1144 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through this
afternoon and into tonight primarily along and south of I-20. Some
storms could become strong to isolated severe with strong to
damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall as the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening
across much of the forecast area this week. Isolated storms could
become strong, capable of producing gusty winds and frequent
lightning. Heavy rainfall associated with these storms could also
lead to localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022

GAZ076-152030-
Jefferson GA-
355 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Jefferson County through 430 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was centered near Keysville, or
12 miles southwest of Fort Gordon, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Wrens, Matthews and Stellaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 8225 3312 8228 3314 8243 3326 8246
      3331 8237 3331 8234 3330 8231 3327 8229
      3326 8225 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 319DEG 6KT 3328 8227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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