Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

As close to a pattern change as we're likely to get is on tap as we
enter the weekend. A mid-level ridge has presided over the pattern
in the southeast for the better part of the last month, but its
center has begun to (and will continue to) retrograde back across
the Desert southwest. The eastern edge of the ridge has been the
dominant flow branch over the past day or so, placing the southeast
under deep but weak northwesterly flow. Any weak disturbance
traversing our ridge setup will locally enhance convective
development, and it is possible that we see some organization of
storms into clusters, aided by both their own cold pools and any
remnant outflow boundaries from the past several days of convective
activity. Owing to the position of the Bermuda High along the
Carolina coast, our steady plume of Gulf moisture has held PWATs
steady in the 2-2.25" range. Analyzed SBCAPE was already approaching
3000 J/kg on the 12Z sounding this morning, and yesterday's 00Z
sounding revealed upwards of 4000 J/kg MUCAPE after convective
temperatures were reached. All this to say, conditions are (still)
more than sufficient to support explosive initial upward pulses, and
water-loaded downdrafts will increase the risk for damaging wind
gusts as cores collapse. A Marginal Risk is in place across the
entire CWA for the continued threat for localized damaging gusts.

Moving into Saturday, the center of the 500 mb high is across the
Four Corners region, leaving the southeast in an area of weak flow
aloft. This paves the way for a shortwave trough rounding the edge
of the ridge to push across southward across the OH River Valley
with an attendant frontal boundary in tow. Before FROPA, patchy
diurnally-driven convection is possible until the mid-afternoon.
Certainly not the healthiest front, but before the moisture gradient
atrophies completely, it should bring the most widespread rain
chances we've seen in a few weeks for much of north and portions of
north central Georgia Saturday evening. Currently, CAMS are
depicting a weaker initial line, likely associated with the
prefrontal trough, pushing through to central GA around 18Z
Saturday, and proper frontal convection moving through closer to 00Z
Sunday. The southeastward extent of the front before stalling out
will determine how much of the state feels relief from the utterly
oppressive dewpoints that have plagued us the past week.

A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM today for lingering heat
index values above 105F. It's likely that locales south of I-20
experienced several hours of Heat Advisory criteria before
convective initiation and an abundance of rain-cooled air associated
with collapsing storms. Any clearing following storm dissipation
will result in even more oppressive dewpoints despite potentially
cooler temperatures.

96

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

We start off the long term forecast with a weak frontal boundary
pushing through the forecast area towards south GA Saturday night
into Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing overnight, especially in the vicinity of the front
as it sags south. PoPs during the day on Sunday will largely be
dependent on how far south this front travels. Most of the activity
is expected to remain confined to southern GA where the front
stalls. As previously mentioned, the front will push through much of
the area, resulting in a slight wind shift, before stalling and
waffling around across southern GA for a few days.

Still the biggest forecast question for the long term is how much
and to what extend slightly cooler, drier air filters in behind the
front. Overall, not expecting a drastic change as it is summertime
and moisture will still hang around given northeasterly winds
bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic. Though in looking at
1000-500mb RH, there still remains some inconsistencies as far as
timing in the arrival of lower moisture across north GA. Some
guidance is a little bit more aggressive with bringing this through
much of the region while other guidance is a little more
conservative. Given weak synoptic flow and other smaller-scale
influences, will not deviate too much from what was previously
forecast.

While high moisture content will still hang around despite the
passing front, conditions wont be quite as unbearable early next
week. High temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70 on Monday. This will be the trend for a good
part of the extended forecast, though a gradual uptick in moisture
will be likely as we progress through the period. Diurnal convection
will be possible each day primarily during the afternoon with chances
tapering off at night. The stationary boundary draped across the
south may aid in further development and higher convective chances
next week. We may get another reinforcing boundary pushing through
around mid-week aiding in further rain chances for the area. Though
it's still too soon for specifics...stay tuned.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions generally expected to persist through the TAF
period. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA likely through late
tonight, with a TEMPO in effect from 18-22Z to capture best
window for VRB gusts, frequent lightning, and reduced vsbys at
ATL. More organized SHRA/TSRA likely tomorrow with frontal passage.
FEW to SCT Cu field will continue through the afternoon. Winds
will stay from the W side at less than 10 kts. Patchy MVFR cigs
possible overnight at southern TAF sites. Fog also possible, but
heavily dependent on where heaviest rain falls/sky coverage.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on morning MVFR cigs/vsbys.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  93  72  85 /  30  80  70  70
Atlanta         76  91  73  85 /  30  80  70  60
Blairsville     69  84  67  80 /  50  90  70  60
Cartersville    74  91  70  86 /  40  90  70  50
Columbus        76  91  74  89 /  30  70  70  80
Gainesville     75  90  71  83 /  30  80  70  60
Macon           75  92  73  90 /  30  70  70  80
Rome            76  91  72  90 /  30  90  70  50
Peachtree City  74  91  70  86 /  30  80  70  70
Vidalia         75  90  75  88 /  30  60  60  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...
Floyd...Forsyth...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North
Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walker...Walton...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Whitfield...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1045 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091445-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1045 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory is in effect for all but the mountainous areas of
north Georgia. Widespread heat index values in the triple digits
are expected with several areas reaching values between 105 and
109. Please use caution when exercising or working outdoors and
take frequent breaks.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
again today into tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe
with the damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and brief period
of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Heat Index values up to 105 will be possible again on Saturday
before less extreme conditions settle in next week.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and
evening. Some storms could become strong to severe with damaging
winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
608 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW BLACKVILLE        32.50N  82.61W
07/08/2022                   TREUTLEN           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT NORRIS RD AND CROOKED RUN RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200797

SM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
609 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

GAZ030-031-041-082245-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
609 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Paulding, northeastern Haralson and southeastern Polk Counties
through 645 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Antioch, or 7 miles
southeast of Cedartown, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Buchanan, Rockmart, Yorkville, Fish Creek, Draketown, Felton, Eubank
Lake, Antioch and Van Wert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8519 3396 8495 3383 8498 3381 8503
      3381 8505 3379 8505 3377 8510 3392 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 300DEG 7KT 3392 8518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH