Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Overall, the short term forecast remains consistent with the
previous forecast on this Independence Day.

Upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the region
with broad upper level troughing over southeastern Canada and New
England. Ample moisture will be in place throughout much of the
column of the atmosphere through tomorrow with dewpoint temps
approaching the mid 70s in some spots. PW values will be 1.80-2.13
inches across the area, with the better axis of moisture across
southcentral GA today and then western GA tomorrow. Both
afternoons/evenings aided by influence from weak disturbances
rounding the eastern edge of the ridge and differential heating
chance PoPs continue to look possible. The question remains, will
there be too much mid to upper level drying/warming that the PoPs in
todays forecast is too generous? Short terms models suggest that
drying will be greater than earlier anticipated, but CAMs continue
to show isolated to scattered coverage this afternoon with the best
coverage around 00Z. Given the deep plume of moisture through much
of the atmosphere, heating and triggering from the aforementioned
upper level disturbances the thinking is that our summer time
pattern will continue today and overcome the "drying" issues, but
coverage could be more isolated in nature than we have seen the
past few days. With very little steering flow aloft storms will be
capable of producing heavy rain and localized flooding. In
addition with continuing moist conditions and light winds
overnight, patchy fog will once again be possible early Tuesday
morning.

The pattern will shift somewhat tomorrow as the high pressure aloft
begins a westward expansion. This will allow the moisture flow to
remain over the CWA with some drying throughout the column. That
said, plenty of moisture will remain for scattered showers and
thunderstorms with precipitable water values slight lower between
1.72 to 2.00 inches. Rain showers and thunderstorms will quickly
taper off after sunset tomorrow.

28

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

No significant weather impacts or forecast concerns expected in the
long term period. Active diurnal convection with slightly above
normal max T and much above normal min T will continue through at
least Saturday with some cooling and possibly some decrease in
convection Sunday and Monday.

Fairly stagnant pattern to remain in place through Saturday when
upper ridge centered the southeast and mid-south slips west and
westerlies on southern periphery of large eastern Canada/NEUS upper
trough digs south into Georgia. Weak cold front associated with base
of trough also forecast to drop into the region with the potential
to lower temps and moisture by next Monday if it makes enough
progress south. New 12Z EC now almost identical to 12Z GFS in
slowing progression of front so don't get your hopes up. Should at
least be able to shave a few degrees of max temps Sun/Mon just
based on lower 1000-850mb thicknesses.

Little if any tropical activity forecast over the Atlantic basin
next 7 days. We're ok with that, but if drought conditions get worse
this summer we might change our tune.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z Update...
SHRA/TSRA has begun to develop near and around the ATL Metro
terminals and CSG. This activity will continue and expand through
00Z and has been covered with a TEMPO. Prevailing ESE winds will
stay below 7 kts through the overnight hours. With continuing
moist conditions and light winds overnight, patchy fog and low
CIGS (BKN010) will be possible again early Tuesday morning after
09Z. VCSH/TSRA returns early tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  74  94 /  50  40  30  40
Atlanta         73  91  75  91 /  30  60  30  40
Blairsville     69  85  68  87 /  30  60  30  60
Cartersville    72  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
Columbus        75  93  75  94 /  30  60  30  40
Gainesville     72  90  73  91 /  50  50  30  50
Macon           74  94  74  96 /  40  50  20  40
Rome            73  92  75  94 /  20  50  30  50
Peachtree City  72  92  73  92 /  30  60  20  40
Vidalia         74  94  75  94 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-050845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
few storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds, small
hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become strong with gusty winds,
locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
512 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

GAZ050-061-042145-
Hancock GA-Greene GA-
512 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hancock
and southeastern Greene Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Shoulderbone, or 7
miles northwest of Sparta, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Sparta, White Plains, Liberty, Shoulderbone and Devereux.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 8307 3329 8317 3330 8317 3331 8315
      3332 8315 3334 8314 3336 8317 3338 8318
      3340 8318 3347 8302 3334 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 057DEG 7KT 3337 8304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
523 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

GAZ025-027-036-038-042200-
Madison GA-Jackson GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
523 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Clarke,
east central Jackson, northwestern Oglethorpe and southwestern
Madison Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Danielsville, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Danielsville, Nicholson, Comer, Winterville, Colbert, Ila, Hull,
Athens-Clarke County, Diamond Hill, Smithonia, Sandy Creek Recreation
Area, Barretts Mill, Dunlap and Neese.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 8323 3406 8311 3394 8324 3403 8342
      3416 8344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 057DEG 7KT 3410 8325

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
611 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

GAZ113-042245-
Toombs GA-
611 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Toombs
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 611 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Lyons, moving west at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lyons, Vidalia, Santa Claus, South Thompson, Center, Toombs Central,
Ohoopee, New Branch, Ponderosa, Rock Springs, Johnson Corner and
Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 8242 3218 8245 3220 8245 3232 8239
      3231 8235 3229 8235 3230 8231 3227 8222
      3209 8220 3207 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 091DEG 13KT 3219 8231

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
748 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

GAZ104-050015-
Sumter GA-
748 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sumter
County through 815 PM EDT...

At 748 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Huntington, or 8 miles
southeast of Americus, moving west at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, Sumter, Lamar, Maddox, New
Era, Huntington and Croxton Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3193 8431 3207 8438 3216 8426
      3206 8399 3191 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 110DEG 23KT 3201 8411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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