Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
824 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022/

..Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

The front that has acted as a forcing mechanism for convection
over the past couple of days is largely diffused today. PWAT is
analyzed at 1.7" to 2.1" across the CWA with no dry layers in the
column. In addition, upper-level flow remains weak with virtually
no vertical wind shear. Thus, similar to the previous two days,
heavy rainfall will be a concern with any stronger and/or more
persistent storms, which could in turn lead to localized flash
flooding (especially for urban areas). Fortunately, soils are
still quite dry given the lack of widespread appreciable rainfall
recently (illustrated by the DO to D1 drought conditions across
much of the area) which should mitigate the flash flood risk in
general. Other storm threats today are gusty downburst winds and
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A few storms with severe-
criteria winds are possible. Patchy fog will be possible overnight
into early tomorrow (Thursday) morning, especially in areas that
receive more rainfall later in the evening.

The CWA will remain entrenched in this warm, muggy, unstable
airmass tomorrow. Pinning down where convection will be most
likely/widespread is tricky in the absence of a clear forcing
mechanism like a front. Models depict a few weak mid-level/upper-
level disturbances drifting north across the CWA through the day
which could help focus convection, but these features are rather
nebulous and are thus difficult to forecast. Similar to today,
differential heating along the periphery of more persistent cloud
decks in the late morning and early afternoon could also play a
role in where convection occurs tomorrow. For now, have area-wide
chance PoPs tomorrow afternoon and evening with some likely PoPs
across the counties south of I-20 where the HREF is depicting the
highest PWATs. Storm threats will once again be gusty to damaging
winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rainfall that
could produce localized flash flooding.

Martin

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The long term forecast remains consistent with previous forecast
runs, beginning with mid to upper level ridging strengthening to
the north and east, and a weak upper level flow pattern over much
of the Southeast CONUS to start the period on Friday. The Bermuda
High over the western Atlantic will also promote continued
southerly low level flow and the advection of deep moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico. With this moist airmass persisting into the
early parts of next week, dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s
across the forecast area. Amplification of the ridge to the east
and northeast of the area will allow for additional moisture
advection off the Atlantic and Gulf. Precipitable water values
will climb to over 2 inches during the weekend as a result, and
furthermore remain so with little change in the airmass over the
region.

In the absence of a clear synoptic forcing mechanism, convection
is expected to be diurnally-driven in nature, although remnant
outflow boundaries from antecedent showers and thunderstorms
could provide a focus for additional development. Considering the
deep moisture and high PWAT values, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to be higher than typically observed on
an average summer day, and primarily likely PoPs are being carried
through the weekend. At this time, the threat for organized
severe weather appears to be unlikely. However, a few storms each
day could become strong to severe. Taking the deep atmospheric
moisture in consideration, precipitation loading into storm
downdrafts could aid in gusty, potentially damaging downburst
winds. Furthermore, heavy rainfall associated with stronger storms
could lead to localized flash flooding concerns. This is most
likely where strong storms linger over a common location because
of the weak steering flow, or if they provide additional rainfall
to locations that were already saturated from rains from previous
days.

The increased cover of rain chances and clouds will somewhat
limit daytime heating, keeping afternoon highs near to just below
normal through the weekend, in the 80s in north and central
Georgia. High temperatures are anticipated to begin climbing into
the 90s by the the beginning of next week. Early morning hours
each day will also start out nearly saturated, with low stratus
and patchy fog likely each morning.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Lingering convective activity will likely persist past sundown,
and have TEMPOs in place through 01/02Z for TSRA and variable
gusts at all TAF sites. Overnight, cigs will fairly steadily drop
to MVFR around 05-06Z and then IFR around 10Z. Low cigs lasted
well into the late morning/early afternoon today, so have kept
mention of MVFR cigs until 16-17Z tomorrow when BKN VFR cigs
develop. Winds will remain out of the E side at 5-10 kts through
the TAF period.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence duration morning IFR cigs.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  87  69  83 /  20  40  40  70
Atlanta         70  86  70  81 /  30  50  40  70
Blairsville     63  82  64  78 /  20  50  40  70
Cartersville    68  87  68  83 /  20  50  40  70
Columbus        72  90  71  86 /  40  60  30  70
Gainesville     68  85  69  80 /  20  40  40  70
Macon           70  91  70  88 /  40  60  40  70
Rome            69  90  70  87 /  20  50  40  70
Peachtree City  68  87  68  82 /  40  50  40  70
Vidalia         71  90  71  85 /  40  60  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1140 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1140 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into
tonight. A few of the storms could be strong to severe, with the
primary threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening,
are possible each day. A few of the storms could be strong with
the primary threats of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
611 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

GAZ015-292245-
Lumpkin GA-
611 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Lumpkin
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 611 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Dahlonega. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlonega, Auraria and Garland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8388 3446 8389 3446 8391 3447 8391
      3447 8393 3446 8393 3445 8392 3445 8393
      3442 8398 3446 8410 3451 8415 3459 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 061DEG 2KT 3450 8399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

GAZ021-031-032-300000-
Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Paulding GA-
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Paulding, southwestern Cherokee and western Cobb Counties through 800
PM EDT...

At 733 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Kennesaw, or near
Marietta, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Kennesaw, Acworth, Powder Springs, Austell, Fair Oaks,
White Water Park, Lost Mountain Park, Oak Grove, Kennesaw State
University, Jim R Miller Park, Cross Roads, Due West, Sandy Plains,
New Hope and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8471 3408 8466 3412 8466 3413 8464
      3402 8447 3380 8461 3397 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 038DEG 8KT 3402 8462

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHURCH HILL             32.17N  84.54W
06/29/2022                   MARION             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT 41 S AND HAY ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200736

SM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
805 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

GAZ031-032-042>044-300030-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-South Fulton GA-
805 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...A cluster of strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern
Paulding, southwestern Cobb, northeastern Carroll, Douglas and
southwestern Fulton Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 803 PM EDT, a strong cluster of thunderstorms stretched from near
Hiram to Douglasville to Campbellton and was moving south around 20
mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Douglasville, Dallas, Villa Rica, Powder Springs, Austell, Palmetto,
Hiram, Lithia Springs, Sweetwater Creek State Park, Lost Mountain
Park, Brownsville, Bill Arp, Chapel Hill, Fairplay, Cross Roads,
Winston, Lake Val-Do-Mar, Due West, Treasure Lake and Campbellton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3403 8478 3399 8467 3375 8461 3353 8463
      3362 8489 3366 8502 3389 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 011DEG 17KT 3386 8478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
852 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

GAZ053-300115-
Coweta GA-
852 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Coweta
County through 915 PM EDT...

At 852 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Newnan, moving north at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, East Newnan, Dunaway Gardens, Plant Yates, Arnco-Sargent,
Roscoe and Madras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 8498 3346 8498 3344 8494 3345 8492
      3346 8491 3347 8491 3349 8488 3349 8486
      3351 8485 3351 8472 3334 8474 3332 8484
      3343 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 159DEG 9KT 3336 8481

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH