Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Moist air continues to filter in from the Atlantic through the
boundary layer keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across all of the CWA. Temperatures have already warmed into the
upper 80s and lower 90s, and with the morning sounding at FFC
showing convective T of near 91, it is no surprise that we have
already seen convection popping in central and western GA where a
slight theta-e gradient and a little bit of moisture pooling and
convergence at the surface may reside. Elsewhere, the cu field is
definitely becoming agitated in places with clear glaciation
taking place per GOES Day Cloud Phase, and would not be surprised
if we get a little bit more convective coverage going soon. SBCAPE
values have surged to 3000+ J/kg across the area with little
noted CIN with 20- 30kts of EBWS across most of the CWA. Forcing
mechanisms are an issue for greater coverage, as we are relying on
boundary layer dynamics to get updrafts rolling, and the morning
sounding did note a very dry air layer aloft at just below 500mb
which may limit updraft strength through dry air entrainment.
Overall, can't rule out a few strong thunderstorms across the
area, and in central GA we likely could see a few cores get tall
enough to warrant severe warnings.

As upper level trough off the east coast continues to slide east
into the north Atlantic, upper level ridge will and surface high
will also slide east over the Appalachians bringing more
continental airmass with it. As a result, back door front looks
like it may impact the CWA during the early morning hours tomorrow
and stall over western GA. For eastern portions of the CWA, this
won't provide much relief temperature-wise, but will put a damper
on the humidity, and keep PoP chances lower. For western GA, PoP
chances will depend on your location relative to the front, with
better precip chances the further to the west you go where
moisture and surface forcing will be much better. Cloud cover
should act to limit maximum temperatures in these locations,
however, which in turn could impact PoP chances as well. Could be
a few showers or even storms as this back door front pushes west,
but uncertainty around convective coverage this afternoon has
confidence low for overnight/early morning impacts.

Lusk

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

An approaching weak upper level trough sweeping over the northern
Plains will erode the high pressure over central CONUS at the start
of the long term period. The upper level trough will bring a weak
frontal boundary to the CWA Monday, bringing chance to likely PoPs
to the forecast area, particularly over north Georgia. After that,
some uncertainty still remains over where the boundary is likely to
stall over central or southern Georgia thanks to weak forcing as the
atmosphere transitions to zonal flow aloft. Regardless of where the
boundary stalls, disturbances within the flow could bring unsettled
weather to the area throughout the long term period. Given the
uncertainty of the placement of the front at this time, have limited
the PoPs to chance throughout the period with the exception of
Monday afternoon/evening across north Georgia where there is more
agreement over the placement of the frontal boundary. While any
meaningful rainfall will be welcomed as much of northern and central
Georgia are experiencing D0 drought conditions and isolated pockets
of D1 drought conditions, the QPF total throughout the long term
period will only run about 0.5-1.0 inches. Given the likely isolated
to scattered nature of thunderstorm coverage, the possibility of
widespread relief in abnormally dry conditions will be limited. The
good news is that more seasonable temperatures will return to the
forecast area with temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s across
north and central Georgia.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Active cu field in place across the metro sites with some TSRA
already SW and S of ATL towards CSG. Coverage is mostly SCT to
occasionally BKN at 4-5kft. Storm coverage may shift towards metro
over next few hours, with TEMPO highlighting highest confidence
time period. Overnight, lower cigs may develop over metro as
moisture continues to filter into the area. Morning likely will
see period of MVFR near sunrise, but could go IFR periodically
(low confidence on IFR). Wind through period will be east 6-12
kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on overnight cigs. High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  69  91 /  30  10  10   5
Atlanta         72  88  72  91 /  30  30  20  20
Blairsville     65  83  63  84 /  30  30  10  30
Cartersville    71  88  69  91 /  40  30  20  30
Columbus        73  88  72  93 /  40  40  30  20
Gainesville     71  88  69  89 /  30  20  10  20
Macon           71  93  69  95 /  50  20  10   5
Rome            73  89  70  92 /  40  40  20  30
Peachtree City  70  88  68  91 /  40  30  10  20
Vidalia         73  92  69  94 /  20   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
313 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
north and central Georgia this this afternoon and evening. A few
storms could become strong to severe with the primary hazards
being damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be likely through the weekend and
into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
538 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ012-019-020-242215-
Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
538 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Floyd,
southwestern Gordon and northwestern Bartow Counties through 615 PM
EDT...

At 538 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Adairsville, or 9 miles
south of Calhoun, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Calhoun, Adairsville, White, Kingston, Plainville, Cassville, Folsom
and Pinson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 8506 3448 8497 3447 8485 3429 8474
      3421 8491 3423 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 346DEG 5KT 3436 8495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
617 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ020-242245-
Bartow GA-
617 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Bartow
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 617 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Kingston, or 9 miles
northwest of Cartersville, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cartersville, Euharlee, Kingston and Cassville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8501 3433 8496 3434 8488 3425 8474
      3418 8480 3414 8484 3413 8492 3414 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 339DEG 7KT 3426 8491

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ080-081-093>095-242315-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-
640 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Macon,
southwestern Peach, southwestern Houston, south central Crawford and
southeastern Taylor Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Marshallville, or 9
miles southwest of Fort Valley, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Fort Valley, Marshallville, Reynolds, Saint Louis, Nakomis,
Meadowdale, Grovania, Elko, Garden Valley, Grove Park, Hicks,
Potterville, Moss Oak, Winchester and Henderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8421 3257 8421 3265 8405 3240 8363
      3229 8373 3229 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 121DEG 5KT 3245 8398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ093-242315-
Macon GA-
642 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Macon
County through 715 PM EDT...

At 641 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Marshallville, or 9
miles southwest of Fort Valley, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Ideal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8422 3230 8426 3240 8425 3240 8420
      3241 8419 3237 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 121DEG 5KT 3245 8399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH