Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1009 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

.UPDATE...

Environment is favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms today.
12Z FFC sounding shows marginally steep mid level lapse rates, that
should only steepen with the heat of the day. In addition, the
sounding is showing DCAPE values around 1200 J/kg. Mesoscale surface
analysis shows activity across western NC and upstate SC moving into
a more unstable environment with surface based capes 2000-3000+
J/kg.

None of the hi-res models have a great handle on the MCS activity
across the Carolinas. Over the past few hours, a turn to the SW has
occurred. New storms have begun to pop just west of GSP. Do expect
the activity to continue increasing and pushing SW into
northeast/eastern portions of GA later this morning and during the
early afternoon. The hi-res ARW it hinting at this type of
progression, but it still doesn't have a handle on initialization
and timing may be off.

Will have to increase the pops, especially in the northeast part of
the CWA. May have to make additional tweaks later this morning/early
afternoon once activity gets going across the CWA. Increasing cloud
cover could make hitting Heat Advisory criteria a bit harder, but
will make no changes since a bit borderline. If storms move through
early enough, there will be plenty of time to heat up again.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be likely with any thunderstorms.
BL winds are pretty light and PWATS are around ~1.8".

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022/

..Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

The heat wave continues with widespread heat index values expected
to be near or exceed 105 degrees this afternoon and evening. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for most of the forecast area. Please take
caution to protect yourself and others from the impacts of the
upcoming heat wave and see the Heat Advisory for with tips to
mitigate the extreme heat.

With a surface high pressure forecast over the GoMEX just west of
the FL peninsula pushing ample Gulf moisture into the southeast,
combined with a stagnant, high-amplitude ridge stretching from the
Gulf into the Great Lakes region, with a central High pressure at
h500 of 5940m.

CAMs are also projecting several potential waves for storms that
could push in into the forecast area, rounding the southeastern edge
of the central High pressure. These complexes look to develop due to
surface forcing from the outflow of several MCSs currently in West.
Virginia and Ohio. As this wave comes in contact with a highly
unstable airmass, with weak subsidence being the only suppressor for
storms otherwise, widespread convection could form, but is far from
guaranteed due to the mid-level ridging. If storms do form,
damaging wind gusts and large hail could be possible with expected
MLCape values near 3000 J/kg, and water loaded downdrafts with
PWATs near 2 inches and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. However, due
to a balance between forcing and suppression mechanisms with unknown
values of convective inhibition, exact timing, placement and
coverage of storms is still to be determined.

Similar conditions expected Wednesday with another Heat Advisory
expected, with some unknowns to be resolved based on the convective
outcomes of today.

Thiem

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

The first half of the extended continues to be dominated by
persistent upper ridging and hot conditions with Max T continuing
into the mid to upper 90s through Friday. For now, expecting air
temps to reach or just fall short of record highs across the area,
particularly across east-central GA. In addition, with very humid
conditions courtesy of moisture advection off the Atlantic,
dewpoints should rise into the low-to-mid 70s, with majority of the
area seeing Heat Index Values around or above 105, with the hottest
conditions in the extended on Friday.

The other notable impact will be the potential for scattered
convection through Friday given abundant low-level moisture and
instability as perturbations rotate around the eastern periphery of
the mid lvl high/upper ridge. Not anticipating a widespread
severe threat at this time, but any storms that do develop could
become strong or severe given abundant heat and instability with
hail and strong wind gusts as main threats.

No major changes to the pattern are expected until the coming
weekend. A weak cold front still appears on track to push into the
area on Friday. While high temperatures may only cool a few degrees
the front for Saturday and Sunday, the post-frontal drier air will
be very noticeable as dewpoints look to drop into the 50s by
Saturday. With this drier airmass, no PoPs are expected over the
weekend as well at this time.

Morgan

AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions generally expected through TAF period, with a
PROB30 for potential wave of TSRA between approx 18Z-24Z, though
model discrepancy exists regarding placement and timing.
Otherwise FEW/SCT cu at 030-060 expected between 14-02Z with calm
to light (<10kts) winds from the west to northwest.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low on Tuesday TSRA coverage/timing.
High on all else.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  99  72  96 /  20  40  30  30
Atlanta         75  97  74  94 /  20  40  30  30
Blairsville     69  93  69  91 /  20  50  30  40
Cartersville    72  97  72  95 /  20  40  30  30
Columbus        74  97  74  96 /  40  50  30  30
Gainesville     74  97  73  93 /  20  40  30  40
Macon           73 100  72  97 /  30  40  30  30
Rome            73  98  72  96 /  20  40  30  30
Peachtree City  72  98  72  95 /  30  40  30  30
Vidalia         76  99  75  97 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...
Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...
Webster...Wheeler...White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...
Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Morgan
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1220 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151400-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1220 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of the area
through 8 PM this evening.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
and affect much of north and central Georgia through this afternoon.
Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail up to golf balls,
frequent lightning and very heavy rain can be expected with the most
severe storms.

In addition to the storms, hot and humid conditions will persist. A
Heat Advisory is in effect for nearly all of north and central
Georgia through this evening. Maximum heat index values between 100
and 110 degrees can be expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Afternoon heat index values between 100 and 110 degrees are
expected for much of north and central Georgia from Wednesday
through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through Thursday, primarily
during the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms will then
be possible mainly in central Georgia on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time but spotters are
encouraged to report any wind damage or hail reports to the National
Weather Service office in Peachtree City.

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

GAZ015-016-023-141630-
Hall GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
1148 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Lumpkin, White and northeastern Hall Counties through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1148 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Cleveland, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Lula, Clermont, Helen, Unicoi
State Park, Robertstown, Mossy Creek, Camp Coleman Lake, Garland,
Leaf, Smithgall Woods Conservation Are, Porter Springs, Sautee and
Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 8373 3467 8365 3465 8366 3462 8364
      3458 8364 3455 8362 3451 8367 3445 8363
      3429 8370 3456 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 047DEG 8KT 3457 8376

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1154 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

GAZ061-062-075-141630-
Hancock GA-Glascock GA-Warren GA-
1154 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Warren, east central
Hancock and northwestern Glascock Counties through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1154 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Camak, or over
Warrenton, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Warrenton, Gibson, Norwood, Mitchell, Camak, Cadley, Shoals, Jewell,
Beall Springs, Reese, Mesena and Mayfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 8263 3331 8289 3356 8268 3352 8261
      3346 8259 3341 8255 3337 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 032DEG 12KT 3344 8263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1211 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               34.60N  83.76W
06/14/2022  E1.00 INCH       WHITE              GA   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 1 INCH HAIL AROUND CLEVELAND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200522

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1211 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

GAZ069-080-081-094-141645-
Peach GA-Taylor GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-
1211 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Upson,
central Peach, Crawford and northeastern Taylor Counties through 1245
PM EDT...

At 1210 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Knoxville, or over
Roberta, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Valley, Butler, Roberta, Reynolds, Knoxville, Nakomis, Lee Pope,
Horns, Fickling Mill and Salem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 8393 3251 8392 3251 8394 3252 8403
      3253 8400 3253 8405 3254 8408 3257 8431
      3280 8416 3275 8385 3248 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 010DEG 9KT 3270 8397

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1221 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

GAZ062-074>076-141645-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-Warren GA-
1221 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Warren,
eastern Glascock, east central Washington and Jefferson Counties
through 1245 PM EDT...

At 1221 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Wrens, or 12 miles
east of Gibson, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Wrens, Stapleton, Avera, Matthews, Downs, Stellaville,
Grange and Stapletons Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3307 8229 3301 8228 3291 8230 3304 8270
      3334 8248 3333 8241 3331 8240 3331 8234
      3330 8231 3327 8229 3327 8227 3324 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 015DEG 22KT 3319 8239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH