Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
909 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.UPDATE...

MCS is about to cross the AL/GA state line this evening. The
environment across western GA remains favorable for strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms as the system moves through.
Localized flash flooding will also be possible. Have made some
timing adjustments to the pops, but no other major changes are
needed.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 721 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022/

.Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed this morning in AL and
have been slowly propagating southeastward down the AL/GA state line
and dissipating along a fading instability and moisture maximum. So
far this activity has not created any hazards in the CWA except some
elevated winds and light rain accumulations. Behind this complex
a lull in activity is expected through about 00Z.

CAMs are in agreement concerning the next round of convection
expected late this evening. This activity will be associated with
the an upper level disturbance moving through the FA and aided by a
cold front moving through central TN. CAMs show a weak line/complex
of storms moving into northwest GA and traversing southeastward
towards the ATL Metro arriving at the Metro around 03Z. Max SBCAPEs
in the vicinity of the disturbance will push 2000 J/kg with both 0-
1km and 0- 3km SRH around 100 m^2/^2s. With DCAPE values around 600
J/kg and the tall skinny CAPE depiction on this mornings soundings
still thinking that the main hazard will be localized flooding with
a secondary threat of damaging winds. This agrees with WPCs current
marginal risk that covers NW GA. Totals of about half an inch across
the area through tomorrow will be possible. The main caveat with all
the above will be the lack of differential heating due to coverage
from the cloud shield currently in place.

Tomorrow the aforementioned TN cold front will push through the CWA
with drier weather and northwest flow in its wake. The front is
progged to stall across southern GA tomorrow and will likely aid
in diurnally driven thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon.

28

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Minimal changes in the long term forecast.
See previous discussion below.

Thiem

The extended begins with a brief reprieve from what will have been a
very active several days as a surface high slides into place across
the mid-Atlantic early Friday. The column loses much of its moisture
(through 0Z Saturday) even as the high quickly breaks down ahead of
the next rainmaker, but with northwesterly flow still presiding over
the mid-levels, an errant passing disturbance may still lead to
spotty showers and thunderstorms. Moving into the weekend proper, a
digging shortwave traversing the broader trough axis shifts across
the OH River Valley with an attendant lobe of low pressure at the
surface in tow. Global models resolve a weak moisture impulse,
currently progged to push eastward across the TN River Valley late
Friday/early Saturday, but the jury is out on timing and whether or
not it loses steam before reaching northwest GA. Have opted for
chance PoPs owing to uncertainty with the all or nothing solutions
from the Euro vs. the GFS.

From Saturday afternoon on, model agreement further devolves. As the
southeast remains in a regime of northwesterly flow aloft thanks to
broad troughing across the eastern CONUS and a persistent ridge over
the desert Southwest, it's very tricky to determine whether or not a
complete scouring of moisture (as suggested by the Euro) is
feasible. However, with no consistent signal, not seeing much
rationale to deviate from the blend. At the moment, it's the
difference between 1) yet another strong surface high settling in
across the mid-Atlantic or 2) weak, amorphous low-level flow and the
intrusion of several disturbances off the Gulf (and associated
thunderstorm chances) to finish off the weekend and take us into
next week. Deep, high amplitude mid-level ridging builds in
beginning next Tuesday, and PoPs should continue to be on the
downtrend to round out the long term period.

Plagued by cloud cover for the first half of the extended, highs
should remain right around climo or slightly below through Sunday,
in the mid-to-upper 80s. As the death ridge (sad face) builds in
late weekend, highs begin a steady climb back into the 90s and
higher -- triple digits are within reach for locales south of the
Fall Line. Need to keep a close eye on the potential for reaching
Heat Advisory criteria.

96

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Difficult forecast for the next 12 hours. Convection will be
dependent upon MCS activity to the west. The hi-res models have
not had a good handle on these systems for the past 24 hours. Have
tried to time the MCS currently over MS and it looks like arrival
time should be 04-05Z. If it does rain at ATL, then the potential
for IFR cigs will increase. Winds should stay on the west side,
but go more NW during the late morning/early afternoon on
Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  89  61  88 /  80  10   5   5
Atlanta         71  85  63  87 /  80  10   5  20
Blairsville     65  79  54  80 /  60  10   5  20
Cartersville    68  84  59  85 /  80  10   5  20
Columbus        73  89  65  91 /  60  30  20  20
Gainesville     70  85  60  85 /  80  10   5  10
Macon           71  89  64  93 /  60  20  10  10
Rome            69  86  60  86 /  90  10   5  30
Peachtree City  69  86  61  88 /  80  10   5  20
Vidalia         74  89  69  93 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
854 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
854 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening through
tonight. Storms will likely move from northwest to southeast,
beginning in North Georgia this evening and moving into Central
Georgia later tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts, hail up to an inch, frequent lightning, and
periods of heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding will also be
possible where heavy rains persist for extended periods of time
with urbanized and low-lying areas being particularly vulnerable.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday through
Sunday, primarily during the afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather and flash flooding through
the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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