Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
201 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1158 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022/

UPDATE...
Just a quick update to tweak POPS across much of the area as
models are starting to show higher confidence in convection
impacting portions of northwest GA and central GA with lower
chances across the Atlanta metro and Athens areas. Also tweaked
cloud cover as I expect mostly clear skies will start to see some
cumulus build through the afternoon given the increased moisture
across the area. Updated forecasts will be issued shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... /Issued 407 AM EDT Sun May 22
2022/

Georgia will remain in the 'Gulf soup' with summertime conditions
reigning throughout the short term. Highs will remain in the mid to
upper 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible each day, primarily in
the afternoons and early evenings.

Synoptically, the forecast area will be in southerly to
southwesterly flow with abundant moisture fetch off the Gulf of
Mexico. Aloft, a broad elongated trough will remain across the
northwest and north central CONUS with a weakening jet stream across
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Nearer to the surface, the Bermuda High
eastern ridge axis remains across North Florida and the northern
Gulf coastline. With the ridge axis in place, warm, moist air will
continuously flow into the forecast region, with PWATs continuing to
increase by 0.25-0.75 inches to reach values around 1.75 inches by
Monday afternoon across the forecast area.

With this moisture in place, convective development needs only a
catalyst, which models are struggling to resolve at the time of this
writing. It's difficult to discern exact precip chances and timing
with a line of showers dissipating right outside the NW corner of
the state in the early hours of the morning that few, if any, models
had in their evening forecasts. With that said, the best chances for
precip will be further north with better low-level forcing, and
further west near the strongest moisture return. A weak cold front,
pushed into the Tennessee River Valley by a strengthening surface
high pressure system in the Midwest will stall just north of the
forecast area which will could also act as a catalyst for clusters
of storms to develop.

On Monday, a mid-level trough/low pressure is forecast to develop
over central Mississippi and Alabama with an associated 30-35 kt jet
at 700 hPa level that will be oriented over the forecast area. This
low pressure system will organize a tropical-like rain pattern with
a precipitation shield moving into the forecast area Monday morning
and multiple momentum surges within the low-level jet acting to
organize convective bands on the eastern side of the low. There is
still some disagreements in coverage and organization of this
system, so for now forecast calls for numerous showers and storms,
with thunderstorm timing likely being the bigger question rather
than occurrence.

Thiem

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... /Issued 407 AM EDT
Sun May 22 2022/

By Tuesday, the western edge of the Bermuda High remains fairly
stationary just off the Carolina coast, placing the southeast under
a constant plume of deep moisture off the Gulf. PWATs are forecasted
to be in the 1.5-2" range nearly every day next week, very close to
or surpassing daily climatological maximums for late May. This
exceedingly moist airmass will provide support for continued shower
and thunderstorm chances daily for much of the extended, and periods
of heavy rainfall on days with higher convective coverage. A
series of disturbances rounding the base of a broad mid-level
trough across the western CONUS will provide impetus for a messy
complex of convection to develop across much of Georgia on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Persistence tells us that SBCAPE of 1000-2000+
J/kg has been realized in the afternoon over the past several
days, so any rain chances are likely to be in the form of
thunderstorms. A distinct lack of shear will keep these primarily
pulse in nature.

As we round out the week, the aforementioned mid-level trough
continues to dig and deepen (and potentially closes off), and is
accompanied by cyclogenesis at the surface. There is modest
agreement that the surface low will be situated across the Great
Lakes on Thursday, with an attendant cold frontal boundary bisecting
the country east of the Mississippi River. North and central GA are
far removed from best forcing across the Midwest, and the cold front
becomes much more diffuse by the time it enters NW GA. This setup
certainly bears watching, as availability of CAPE is a non-issue
in an airmass with abundant moisture, and even marginal shear
would allow for more storm organization than a typical summerlike
day. Global models show a 30-40 kt jet at 850mb on Thursday
morning, with 20-30 kts present by the afternoon as the jet streak
lifts northward, concentrated across NW and west central GA.
Perhaps a more pressing concern is the chance for localized
flooding with FROPA, with 1-1.5" possible on Thursday and Friday,
and isolated higher amounts. Antecedent conditions are very, very
dry (~3/4 of the state is at least classified as Abnormally Dry)
and should help mitigate widespread issues, but will need to keep
an eye on QPF forecast.

Owing to persistent rain chances and cloud cover, the extended
looks to be more seasonable, with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s and lows in the 60s, dropping down into the 50s after the
frontal passage Friday.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR after 06Z and then IFR
after 09Z. Best chances for convection this afternoon and evening
will depend upon an area spreading north and east from southeast
Alabama. the best window for convection will be after 19Z in CSG,
after 20Z in MCN and 21Z in ATL area and AHN. Winds will be SW
initially at 5-10kts then shifting to the SE after 08Z with speeds
6kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on convective type and timing.
Medium to high confidence all other elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  66  82  64 /  50  50  80  60
Atlanta         87  67  79  65 /  50  50  80  60
Blairsville     82  61  75  61 /  70  70  90  70
Cartersville    87  65  78  63 /  50  60  90  50
Columbus        89  67  81  66 /  70  50  70  50
Gainesville     87  67  78  65 /  50  60  90  60
Macon           91  65  85  65 /  60  50  80  50
Rome            88  67  79  65 /  70  70  80  50
Peachtree City  88  65  80  64 /  50  50  80  50
Vidalia         92  69  88  67 / 100  50  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1158 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1158 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through late tonight. Some
storms may be strong to severe and capable of producing gusty
winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day from Monday through
Friday. Some of the storms each day may be strong and capable of
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
140 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

GAZ089>091-102-103-221830-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-Muscogee GA-
140 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Marion, Muscogee,
Chattahoochee, Stewart and Webster Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 139 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Hawkinsville to near Sanford to White House, and
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lumpkin, Buena Vista, Cusseta, Preston, Richland, Fort Benning/lawson
Army Air Fld, North Fort Benning, Weston, Bibb City, Upatoi, Putnam,
Brantley, Seminole, Green Island Hills, Columbus Metropolitan
Airport, Oakland, Troutman, Sanford, Benning Hills and Benning Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8491 3195 8496 3198 8496 3199 8507
      3213 8506 3220 8496 3222 8498 3222 8493
      3225 8492 3226 8489 3233 8501 3243 8496
      3261 8508 3258 8470 3256 8467 3252 8469
      3253 8456 3242 8439 3218 8442 3192 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 204DEG 42KT 3207 8523 3197 8499 3183 8477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

GAZ103-104-221830-
Sumter GA-Webster GA-
213 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Webster
and southwestern Sumter Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 213 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Leveretts to Bronwood to Palmyra, and moving northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Plains, Sumter, Friendship, Maddox, Croxton Crossroads,
Centerpoint, Dumas and Leveretts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8444 3193 8444 3192 8446 3192 8460
      3214 8445 3214 8443 3217 8443 3217 8440
      3201 8415 3191 8407 3192 8434 3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 222DEG 25KT 3196 8456 3183 8436 3163 8418

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH