Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
807 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Summer time has arrived. Daytime heating could lead to a few
convective driven thunderstorms across the area; however  RH values
remain on the low side today, with minimal values falling into the
low 40s and mid 30s this afternoon. Dry air aloft and minimal lift
in the area will likely help to keep the lid on widespread
thunderstorm development. A weak boundary combined with the effects
of the sea breeze could spawn a few thunderstorms across the eastern
and central part of the CWA. With steep low level lapse rates and
moderate CAPE (up to 3,000J/KG) there could be the threat of
isolated downbursts and severe hail.

Some models, especially the HRRR, has a quick wave out ahead of a
weak boundary that could bring a line of thunderstorms into NW
Georgia including the metro area. But given the unimpressive
parameters, it's unlikely that this will produce any severe weather
other than gusty winds and some brief heavy rain.

A CU field has been growing and expanding over the past few hours
out ahead of a stationary front off to the west. Strong southerly
flow at 5 to 10 kts could gust up to 20kts this afternoon.
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s today; with
some areas across central GA reaching the low 90s. This trend of
warm temperatures will likely continue into the long term.

Vaughn

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Active weather is expected for the first half of the extended
forecast, with a cold front moving through on Friday. The second
half of the extended forecast looks fairly quiet with high pressure
and drier conditions.

The summer-like pattern will last through the end of the week. A
stalled front across northern Ga on Thursday will push northward on
Friday as a warm front, leaving all of the CWA within the warm
sector ahead of the approaching cold front. The front looks to move
through on later Friday/early Saturday.

High pressure will build in behind the front later Saturday. A
cooler and drier airmass will settle over the CWA for the late
weekend into very early next week. Temps/humidity will quickly
moderate towards more early summer like values by the middle of the
week.

Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front on
Friday. Lapse rates look to be weak at this time, but shear and
instability are looking to be fairly decent and in phase. A few
strong storms will definitely be possible with some potential for a
few severe thunderstorms.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions with no low cigs/vsbys expected through most of
the forecast. Some chance for SHRA and perhaps TSRA overnight but
confidence on how much it will hold together before it impacts TAF
sites medium to low. By Wed afternoon more isold SHRA/TSRA also
possible but expected coverage too low to mention in forecast at
this time. Sfc winds light SW becoming W 8-10kts after 15Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA coverage and likelihood
overnight.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  87  61  88 /  20  30  20  10
Atlanta         66  86  64  88 /  30  30  20  20
Blairsville     60  80  55  82 /  40  30  10  20
Cartersville    63  85  59  88 /  40  30  20  20
Columbus        65  90  65  91 /  10  20  10  10
Gainesville     65  85  62  86 /  30  30  20  20
Macon           63  92  63  93 /   5  20  20  10
Rome            64  85  60  89 /  50  30  10  20
Peachtree City  63  87  62  90 /  20  30  20  20
Vidalia         65  92  67  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1149 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041400-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1149 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible on today with gusty winds,
lightning, and brief periods of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday and
will become more numerous on Friday as a storm system moves
through. Isolated storms may linger on Saturday and Sunday.

Potential hazards with any storms that develop include gusty winds,
lightning, and brief periods of heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1223 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022

GAZ042>044-052-053-040500-
Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-South Fulton GA-
1223 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Carroll, southwestern Douglas, northeastern Heard, northwestern
Coweta and southwestern Fulton Counties through 100 AM EDT...

At 1223 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Lowell, or 9 miles
southeast of Carrollton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, Carrollton, Franklin, Whitesburg, Centralhatchee, Roopville,
Plant Yates, Byers Crossroads, Hannah, Arnco-Sargent, Powers
Crossroads, Seaton Lake, Fairplay, Handy, Dunaway Gardens, Clem,
Lowell, Plant Wansley, Treasure Lake and Roscoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 8509 3350 8521 3367 8487 3345 8465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 239DEG 9KT 3347 8498

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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