Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
225 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Active weather day ahead for the CWA as frontal system continues to
trek across the SE, with ongoing showers across portions of NW GA.
Another battle in store in the saga that is the wedge vs warm front,
with the warm front situated on a line from Newnan to Covington over
to Gibson. South of this line, temps are moderate in the mid 60s-low
70s, with Tds in the upper 50s. Although lacking in SBCAPE, still
have marginal MU/MLCAPE across portions of west Central Georgia.
Although not expecting a widespread severe weather event, given the
instability and slightly increased SRH and Bulk shear in place, in
agreement with what SPC has outlined for east-central GA with a
Marginal Risk of severe storms with 2% Tor risk. This risk area
could expand if WAA increases rich Gulf moisture flow and spreads
more northward.

Shifting to N GA, QPF values have decreased ever so slightly, down
to around 1.0", before tapering off to around 0.50" or less for much
of central GA. Given the already saturated soils from previous
events and PWATS approaching the climatological max moving average
for January, a Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall was introduced
for much of N and NW GA.  Given orientation of flow and already
ongoing showers across the area, will need to continue to monitor
for potential flash flood risk.

Morgan

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Dry and cool conditions will prevail Tuesday ahead of an approaching
shortwave that will likely just increase clouds across the area on
Wednesday (at this time, no precip). Following this wave passing by,
dry weather will continue toward the end of the work week with
temperatures rebounding back to near, or slightly above normal ahead
of the next system that is poised to affect the area by the weekend.

With this next weekend's system, medium range models are in decent
agreement on timing (NBM appears a little quicker than raw GFS or
ECMWF soln/s). The 12z/09 Euro appears deeper with upr low digging
across the Lower MS River Valley Saturday, perhaps trapping enough
cold air across the higher elevations of north GA where a RA/SN mix
could occur. Something to watch at this point given its proximity to
the current day. No other major changes from the previous "extended"
forecast.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Mostly low-end MVFR around metro TAF sites with -RA moving across
northern metro TAF sites at this time, expecting this trend to
continue, encroaching on KATL with a wind shift to the SW around
20z. -TSRA possible this evening between 23-03z for KATL as
frontal system approaches the area with another wind shift to the
NW by 04z. Cigs should drop to IFR around 00-03z, before slowly
improving to MVFR around 05z, then going VFR by 08-10z. Gusts up
to 20kts from the NW possible at 05z through the rest of the TAF
period.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          41  54  28  47 /  80   0   0   0
Atlanta         35  49  28  47 /  80   0   0   0
Blairsville     28  44  21  45 /  80   0   0   0
Cartersville    31  47  25  47 /  80   0   0   0
Columbus        41  55  30  52 /  80   0   0   0
Gainesville     36  50  28  46 /  80   0   0   0
Macon           46  56  30  52 /  80   5   0   0
Rome            32  49  26  48 /  70   0   0   0
Peachtree City  35  51  27  48 /  80   0   0   0
Vidalia         52  58  33  52 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...Morgan

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1125 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1125 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will push across north and central
Georgia through this evening. The overall threat for severe weather
is low, but a few stronger storms will be possible later this
afternoon into the evening, especially south of I-20. Heavy rain and
brief gusty to strong winds will be the primary threats. Any threat
for severe weather will end after midnight across central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

No other hazardous weather is expected the rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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