Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
114 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1008 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022/

..Winter Weather Advisory expanded into Bartow, Cherokee, Polk,
Paulding and Haralson Counties...

UPDATE...

Updated 12Z model guidance has shown more aggression with snow
accumulations in NW Georgia, with trends suggesting a
stronger/sharper shortwave transitioning through the area on the
backside of the cold frontal system aided by an intensifying jet
streak to the north hinting at a potential for this winter event to
overperform. The strength of a developing near-surface low
pressure in the area will define how intense the wrap-around
precip will be across NW Georgia. While this is not typically the
winter weather setup we see in the forecast area, and keeping in
mind the record warmth we've had in the region for the last week
and beyond. Some guidance has hinted at a potential TROWEL
development which could boost snowfall totals in the area.
Confidence is still low at this time, but a factor to consider as
we begin to move forward through this event.

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Deep Gulf moisture remains across the area with southwest flow
continuing ahead of the cold front beginning to enter northwest
Georgia early this morning. Temperatures ahead of the front remain
in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the low er to
mid 60s.

Ahead of the surface front a line of convection is slowly sagging to
the south and southeast with the line of convection entering
northern portions of the Atlanta metropolitan areas currently.
Expect the convection to move through southern metropolitan Atlanta
areas and Athens through 10 am and move into central Georgia by late
morning and early afternoon, exiting east central Georgia towards
midnight. Central Georgia remains under a marginal threat for
severe weather this afternoon where the atmosphere will remain
strongly sheared and unstable. The main threats will be strong to
damaging winds, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado. With the
already wet soils from recent heavy rains, locally heavy
rainfall could produce flash flooding as well.

By this evening wraparound moisture will spread additional showers
across portions of north and central Georgia.  Models are coming
into good agreement as far as cutting the upper low across north
Georgia around midnight.  Models are now trekking the upper low
further south across north Georgia.  Between CAA already
infiltrating the area and the upper low, expect a transition to
light rain/snow showers and to a period of all snow across portions
of north Georgia between 2-8am tomorrow morning. Portions of the
north Atlanta metropolitan area could see a dusting of snow -
generally less than 0.25 inch with the higher elevations could see
up to 2 inches. As the upper low pulls away from the area Monday,
skies will clear with good sunshine expected across much of the area
by mid to late morning, so any snow should melt quickly.

Temperatures today will hold steady or warm slightly behind the
fronts, with colder than normal temperatures expected tonight and
tomorrow.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

The beginning of the long term forecast brings us a reprieve from
the busy weather we started the year with. As the low pressure
system moves off the coast of New England, high pressure begins to
build back in at the surface. Max daily temperatures return to more
seasonal ranges with highs in the 40s and 50s for the extended
period. Low temperatures from the upper 20s to 30s on Tuesday follow
a general warming trend through Thursday when the next disturbance
sweeps through the forecast area. While the surface flow ahead of
the trough is primarily easterly, the airmass does not recover much
in terms of moisture (PWATS still trending ~0.8-1.0") and total
rainfall amounts remain between 0.25-0.5" primarily north of the I-
20 corridor. Temperatures plummet (widespread 20s primarily along
and north of the I-85 corridor) behind the cold front Thursday night
into Friday morning. As such, this system will need to be monitored
for any winter precipitation potential. At this time there is some
uncertainty over timing of the frontal feature and moisture amounts
to be able to dig into those details confidently. We return to quiet
and dry conditions at the end of the long term forecast period.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A rain system and cold front continue to move into and impact the
forecast area, A shield of rain currently draped across ATL/AHN
TAF sites with line of SHRA currently south of MCN/CSG. VRB CIGS
around the area, but prevailing VFR/MVFR expected to fall
overnight. ATL expected to go MVFR by 20Z, IFR by 00Z with SCT
LIFR at times, then MVFR at 09Z before the cloud deck breaks
around 15Z. Ocnl VSBYs around 4SM where heavy rain occurs. Winds
will be tricky, but high pressure behind the line of SHRA, and
ahead of the cold front is expected to push winds out of the NE
for a short period between 20-02Z, before turning out of the NW
and strengthening to 15-20 kt sustained with ocnl gusts up to 30
kt. Finally some -RASN could be possible at FTY/PDK/RYY between
6-9Z.

//ATL Confidence...
18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  38  52  30 /  90  80  20   0
Atlanta         66  34  44  31 /  90  80   5   0
Blairsville     62  28  41  25 /  60  90  20   0
Cartersville    64  32  43  27 /  70  90   5   0
Columbus        70  36  50  32 /  80  70   0   0
Gainesville     65  36  48  31 /  80  80  20   0
Macon           72  39  52  32 /  90  70   5   0
Rome            65  33  45  27 /  60  90   5   0
Peachtree City  66  34  46  28 /  90  80   5   0
Vidalia         78  44  54  34 /  80  80   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday
for the following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Dade...Dawson...Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...Gordon...
Haralson...Lumpkin...Murray...Paulding...Pickens...Polk...
Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
509 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
509 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across portions of
north and central Georgia today. Some of the storms could become
strong to severe. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts,
periods of heavy rain, and isolated brief tornadoes.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight to
9AM Monday for portions of far North Georgia. Rain showers
transitioning to snow are possible beginning tonight. Slow down
and use caution when driving as roads may be hazardous.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Snow showers are possible through early Monday morning,
especially in areas of high terrain in the north Georgia
mountains.

Up to two inches of snow are possible and winds could
gust as high as 35 mph at elevations above 2000 feet. Snow
accumulations of up to one inch are possible elsewhere. Please
use caution when driving as roads may become slick.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for today across portions of
north and central Georgia.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
753 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

GAZ059-071-072-082-021330-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
753 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Bibb,
eastern Monroe, Jones and southeastern Jasper Counties through 830 AM
EST...

At 753 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Juliette to near Russellville, and moving east at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Forsyth, Gray, Payne, Payne City, Postell, Bradley, Wayside,
Round Oak, Russellville, Wesleyan, Arkwright, Juliette, James,
Bolingbroke, Dames Ferry, Greenberry Crossroads, Clinton, Jarrell
Plantation and Cross Keys.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 8404 3322 8378 3318 8355 3317 8355
      3317 8354 3316 8346 3298 8341 3280 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1253Z 286DEG 42KT 3314 8375 3294 8391

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW WOODBURY          33.00N  84.58W
01/02/2022                   MERIWETHER         GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED ALONG JONES MILL ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200011

HOCHSTATTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1116 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE COOPERS            32.95N  83.26W
01/02/2022                   WILKINSON          GA   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG WITH SOME TOPS OF TREES
            TWISTED OR SNAPPED. TIN ROOF BLOWN OFF STOREHOUSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200012

BAKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

GAZ108-021915-
Wilcox GA-
150 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Wilcox
County through 215 PM EST...

At 150 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was over Antioch Church, or 8
miles southwest of Abbeville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Browning, Antioch Church and Owensboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3188 8347 3200 8328 3198 8328 3198 8329
      3195 8325 3185 8320 3185 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 243DEG 33KT 3188 8336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH