Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Atlanta, GA

615 
WWUS52 KFFC 261923
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
323 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

GAC167-175-261933-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-220526T1945Z/
Laurens GA-Johnson GA-
323 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAURENS AND
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3279 8278 3281 8280 3276 8295 3280 8313
      3292 8318 3297 8292 3280 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 205DEG 40KT 3290 8292 

$$

GAC303-319-261945-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-220526T1945Z/
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-
323 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WILKINSON AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 323 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oconee, or 8
miles southwest of Sandersville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Toomsboro and Oconee. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8278 3281 8280 3276 8295 3280 8313
      3292 8318 3297 8292 3280 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 205DEG 40KT 3290 8292 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
134 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 736 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022/

.Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Despite the complexity of the forecast and the pattern over the
past few days, the forecast has been fairly rinse and repeat. Slow
moving pinwheel upper low continues to stream tropical moisture
northward into the southern US...and each day lines of convection
form to the west and eventually translate east into GA overnight
with a secondary line forming further west near the front.
Challenge for today will be how the first wave impacts the airmass
for the second wave expected this evening closer to the cold
front. SPC has introduced a slight risk, mainly for wind,
associated with the waves of convection anticipated this afternoon
and evening. Many uncertainties are associated with any severe
threat due to the impacts of both low clouds and any prior
convection...making todays threats conditional, but certainly
possible. Short term CAMS suggesting enough instability will be
present late AM to pose a risk for storms which would suggest the
blob of light rain currently over AL will dissipate enough to
allow for destabilization to occur. 0-6km bulk shear sufficient
(aoa 40-50kts) and increasing in areal extent through the day as
the trof axis approaches. While the damaging wind threat would be
the greatest, enough 0-1KM helicity exists to pose a low end
tornado threat for a brief spin up...particularly this afternoon
across northern GA (slight risk region northward). Per several
CAMS, round 1 timing looks to be after 17z through 21z or so, with
a secondary round/line coming in after 00z, however, that can
easily change depending on a multitude of other factors mentioned
(low cloud burnoff, cloud debris from earlier convection, rain
cooled airmass etc). With the multiple rounds possible, heavy
rainfall and the flooding risk will increase. WPC included much of
the region in a slight risk for FF, however per collaboration,
there are signals for a heavy rain event setting up across the NE
GA mountains given the southerly flow and training of storms
possible across that region. Despite a fairly dry runup to this
event, the past few days have been wet and the airmass is very
tropical owing to increased rainfall rates and runoff. As a
result, we have introduced a FFA across that region of N GA.

Most of the rainfall should be exiting the region by Friday AM and
clouds should give way to the start of a drier Memorial Day
weekend by Friday PM.

stellman

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

A dry pattern emerges on the backside of the the upper level closed
low. The CWA will transition out of southwesterly flow and into
northwesterly flow followed by upper level riding by Sunday. This
ridge along with south to southeasterly surface flow will push highs
back into the upper 80s and low 90s Sunday and Monday.

Monday and onward the GFS and ECMWF are at odd with each other. Both
models eventually develop an tropical wave/upper level low off the
Florida Coast and move the low westward over the GUlf Coast under a
very amplified upper ridge that will encompass much of the
northeastern CONUS. How the work week weather plays out will largely
be determined by the interaction of these two features. For now have
left the NBM initialized  low end PoPs for mid week. If the high
remains strengthens and remains over the area will fall under SWRLY
flow, but if the tropical waves moves quickly over the area  we will
fall under SERLY flow. Either way we ingest moisture and PWs
increase. This combined with warm day time heating will likely
produce summer time afternoon thunderstorms.

Forecaster #28...Pazos

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Showers with some very isolated thunderstorms across the area
this afternoon. Ceilings are mainly in the MVFR range but as the
main area of precip moves in from AL they will go down in to the
MVFR/IFR range. Winds are out of the South and are trying to turn
to the SW. Thinking they will turn as the heavy precip moves in.
Wind speeds will stay in the 8-12kt range with some higher gust to
20kt. The precipitation will end over night and the lower
ceilings will lift and scatter out shortly after daybreak Fri.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          77  64  81  59 /  90  90  30   0
Atlanta         75  63  79  60 / 100  80  10   0
Blairsville     70  56  73  54 / 100  90  40  10
Cartersville    74  60  79  56 / 100  60  10   5
Columbus        76  64  83  59 /  90  80   5   0
Gainesville     73  62  77  59 / 100  90  10   5
Macon           81  64  85  59 /  90  90  30   0
Rome            75  60  79  58 / 100  50  10   5
Peachtree City  75  62  81  57 / 100  70   5   0
Vidalia         85  69  84  64 /  60  70  70   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following zones:
Dawson...Fannin...Gilmer...Lumpkin...Pickens...Towns...Union...
White.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1017 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1017 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north and central
Georgia throughout the day. Strong storms will be likely and will
be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. A few storms could become severe, with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

A Flood Watch is also in effect for portions of northeast
Georgia, where localized flash flooding could occur. Widespread
rainfall totals of one to three inches will be likely within the
watch area, with some locally higher amounts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday. Some storms
could become strong to severe and will be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
223 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

GAZ096-097-107-109-261900-
Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
223 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Laurens, northwestern Dodge, eastern Pulaski and Bleckley Counties
through 300 PM EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Gresston, or near
Eastman, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cochran, Eastman, Chester, Dexter, Cadwell, Chauncey, Rentz, Dubois,
Plainfield, Empire, Mobley Crossing, Roddy, Baileys Park, Rowland,
Ocmulgee Banks, Royal, Paulk, Goldsboro, Cary and Godwinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3217 8344 3250 8340 3251 8339 3252 8335
      3254 8318 3241 8298 3208 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 194DEG 18KT 3221 8328

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

GAZ060-061-073-261915-
Putnam GA-Hancock GA-Baldwin GA-
251 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Baldwin, southeastern Putnam and west central Hancock Counties
through 315 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Browns Crossing, or 7
miles west of Milledgeville, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Milledgeville, Eatonton, Meriwether, Plant Harlee Branch, Warfield
and Browns Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 8329 3305 8340 3309 8341 3332 8341
      3336 8329 3330 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 191DEG 20KT 3309 8335

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

GAZ083-084-096-097-261930-
Wilkinson GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
257 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Laurens, southeastern Wilkinson, southeastern Twiggs and northeastern
Bleckley Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 256 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Goldsboro, or 10 miles
northeast of Cochran, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Irwinton, McIntyre, Dudley, Toomsboro, Danville, Montrose, Allentown,
Goldsboro, Chappells Mill, Rebie, Cary and Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8315 3245 8317 3244 8319 3248 8334
      3282 8328 3288 8305 3285 8303 3285 8299
      3280 8295 3276 8296 3275 8294 3271 8296
      3271 8293 3270 8293 3242 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 197DEG 32KT 3246 8320

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH