Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
No significant weather impacts or forecast concerns expected
through the short term period.

Moist pattern with SWly flow aloft and upper low to the west
initially over western KS expected to continue moving slowly east.
Tropical plume of deep moisture extending back to the Caribbean
sea still funneling into AL and western GA. As upper trough
approaches, this plume will shift east into the state by late Wed
night but more so on Thurs.

So far, based on observed trends, convection moving north over SW
GA should reach our SW counties before 6 PM and work its way
north into the ATL metro maybe 9-10 PM, gradually
weakening/dissipating around midnight.

SHRA/TSRA coverage will increase Wed compared with this evening's
only 20-40% expected coverage but more so over Wrn GA closer to
deep moisture. As mentioned earlier, heavy rain should hold off
until Thurs but could see over an inch or two over western
counties Wed.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
A cold front will be ushered into the area at the start of the
forecast period on Thursday as an upper low pushes eastward into
the mid-Mississippi Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will be on the increase during the day Thursday as the amplifying
low/trough shifts eastward. As low-level wind fields increase, the
threat for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will also
increase through by Thursday afternoon. The potential limiting
factor would be instability given possible widespread cloud cover.
Even so, a severe threat will exist on Thursday. Additionally,
heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns, especially
if additional preceding areas of locally heavy rainfall occur
over the next day or so ahead of this system and contribute to
antecedent elevated stream levels and saturated soils.

Showers and storms will gradually end from west to east Thursday
night into Friday morning as the front pushes eastward. Behind this
system, drier conditions will return for the weekend with lower
humidity and initially slightly cooler temperatures. Temperatures
will begin to warm by late weekend into early next week as ridging
prevails.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected thru around 09Z tonight when IFR stratus
develops. SHRA/TSRA should remain very isold this afternoon but
expected to spread from the south after 00Z, reaching ATL metro
airports around 01-04Z. Confidence in coverage and timing of TSRA
relatively low however. IFR/low MVFR cigs likely to persist into
the early afternoon but could break earlier if overnight precip
does not materialize. Light SW sfc winds will become SE 4-6kts
after 21Z then E after 00Z then increasing to 8-12kts after 09Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low-medium on SHRA/TSRA timing and likelihood.
Medium on IFR timing and likelihood.
High on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  82  66  80 /  50  50  50  80
Atlanta         66  78  67  77 /  40  60  60  90
Blairsville     60  73  61  72 /  50  50  60  90
Cartersville    64  78  65  77 /  50  70  70  90
Columbus        67  82  67  80 /  40  70  60  90
Gainesville     63  77  66  75 /  50  50  60  90
Macon           66  87  67  83 /  40  40  40  80
Rome            66  79  66  78 /  50  70  70  90
Peachtree City  64  79  65  78 /  40  60  60  90
Vidalia         69  89  70  87 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
250 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from this
afternoon into tonight. The potential for severe weather is low,
but storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy
rain, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day from Wednesday
through Friday and again on Monday. Some of the storms each day
may be strong and capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW HIGGSTON          32.20N  82.51W
05/23/2022                   MONTGOMERY         GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30 TO 40 PECAN TREES DOWNED OR WITH SNAPPED LIMBS ON US
            HWY 280 AND MCGREGOR-ALSTON ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200478

KAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
450 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

GAZ104>106-242115-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
450 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central Dooly,
southeastern Sumter and western Crisp Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Stocks to near Arabi, and moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cordele, Vienna, Arabi, Cobb, Fort Early, Georgia Veterans Memorial
St Pk, Richwood, Raines and Wenona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8383 3183 8384 3182 8385 3184 8386
      3185 8394 3186 8394 3186 8393 3188 8393
      3191 8392 3192 8411 3213 8372 3184 8373
      3180 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 185DEG 29KT 3170 8406 3186 8377

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH