Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Atlanta, GA

377 
WWUS52 KFFC 202324
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
724 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

GAC279-202334-
/O.EXP.KFFC.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-220520T2315Z/
Toombs GA-
724 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TOOMBS COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3214 8220 3213 8219 3209 8220 3197 8222
      3198 8237 3220 8231 3220 8220 3216 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 195DEG 11KT 3217 8225 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

This afternoon into tomorrow a deeper supply of low level
moisture will be advected into the region from the south as the
upper level pattern turns more south-southwesterly and surface
south-southwesterly flow is maintained. Daytime heating combined
with energy moving across the southern portions of the CWA will
result in late in the day isolated rain showers and thunderstorms
across far south-central GA. Overall the atmosphere is drier than
anticipated.

Activity and thunderstorm coverage increases tomorrow as even
more moisture is advected northward into the area and a shortwave
moves through the FA. The deeper moisture and warm temperatures
will allow for for destabilization during the day on Saturday. The
environment should have about 2000 J/kg of surface- based CAPE
and weak shear. So summer time pulse like convection is expected.
A few storms could overperform and become severe, but overall the
severe threat is expected to remain low. Storms will favor
southeast-central GA, but the entire area will have a chance at
seeing some precipitation. Convection will taper moving into the
evening hours.

High temperatures and low temperatures will continue to run well
above normal with highs tomorrow expected to reach the upper 80s
and low 90s. While low temps will only dip into the mid to upper
60s both tonight and tomorrow night.

28

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

An unsettled weather pattern will support daily rain chances
through the long term period.

A shortwave traversing the Southeast at the base of the broader
longwave trough plus an influx of tropical moisture will generate
widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Convection
will likely be rather messy with no strong frontal forcing to aid
in organization, but sufficient instability amid the warm, moist
environment could support a few strong storms both days with
water-loaded downdrafts and frequent lightning. Locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern given progged PWATs of 1.5" to 1.8"
(around the maximum per sounding climo) and forecast soundings
depicting a saturated atmospheric column (especially on Monday as
deep-layer moisture further increases). That said, dry antecent
conditions should mitigate the risk for flooding. Rainfall is much
needed as ~73% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry to
moderate drought conditions.

Upper-level troughing will deepen over the central CONUS Tuesday
into Wednesday with a series of shortwaves lifting across the
ArkLaMiss and Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, tropical moisture
advection will persist across north and central Georgia thanks to
the flow around the Bermuda High parked off of the Eastern
Seaboard. The result will be the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms both days. Where PoPs are maximized will depend
largely on mesoscale features such as differential heating
boundaries and outflow boundaries, so I am maintaining area-wide
chance PoPs both days. The upper-level pattern becomes more
progressive Thursday into Friday as the trough axis shifts from
the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes region, which will drive a
cold front through the CWA and thus continue to promote chance to
likely PoPs and thunderstorm potential.

The increased cloud cover and daily rain chances will have a
moderating effect on temperatures with highs generally in the 70s
and 80s and lows generally in the 50s and 60s.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the evening hours with SCT040 in
general. As moisture increases there is a chance that RA/TSRA
near and at KATL, but confidence in this happening is low.
Therefore have gone with a VCSH for now. Overnight VFR will
continue at all northern terminals while at KAHN/KMCN/KCSG MVFR
CIGs will be likely. S-SW winds between 5-10 kts with gusts up to
20kt will be possible through sunset and then winds will diminish
to 4-7 kts from S-SW overnight. Chances of TSRA increase at all
terminals tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on WX and CIGs.
High on all other elements.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  87  68  89 /   5  30  30  60
Atlanta         69  88  69  88 /  10  20  30  70
Blairsville     65  82  63  82 /  10  40  40  80
Cartersville    68  88  68  88 /  10  20  20  80
Columbus        70  89  68  88 /  10  30  30  80
Gainesville     68  85  68  87 /   5  30  30  60
Macon           69  87  67  90 /  10  40  30  70
Rome            68  90  68  88 /  10  20  20  80
Peachtree City  68  87  67  88 /  10  20  20  70
Vidalia         70  87  69  91 /  20  40  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1150 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1150 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the extreme
southern portion of the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day Saturday through
Thursday. Some of the storms each day may be strong and capable of
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
630 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

GAZ113-202300-
Toombs GA-
630 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Toombs
County through 700 PM EDT...

At 630 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Johnson Corner, or 8
miles northeast of Plant Hatch, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
English Eddy, New Branch and Johnson Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 8220 3213 8219 3209 8220 3200 8221
      3194 8225 3197 8238 3216 8229 3215 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 188DEG 10KT 3203 8227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH