Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Atlanta, GA

337 
WWUS52 KFFC 202327
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

GAC111-123-213-202336-
/O.EXP.KFFC.SV.W.0287.000000T0000Z-220820T2330Z/
Gilmer GA-Murray GA-Fannin GA-
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GILMER...EAST
CENTRAL MURRAY AND NORTHWESTERN FANNIN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM
EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Peachtree City.

LAT...LON 3471 8475 3485 8474 3491 8438 3481 8435
      3470 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 278DEG 24KT 3474 8453 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
320 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Thunderstorms are underway across northern GA with additional storms
beginning to work their way in from AL into the far western metro
counties. Coverage should continue to increase across the area, with
best chances for seeing rain and thunder still across northern GA.
Mass response in the low levels to cut-off low across the midwest is
bringing copious moisture surging back across the state, with PWATs
expected to begin approaching 2" by tomorrow morning in some parts
of the CWA. Cut-off low is forecast to slowly meander to the south
and east, so continued gulf moisture will bring the potential for
multiple rounds of rainfall, especially across northern GA today
into tomorrow. Hi-res indicates the possibility of redevelopment (or
maybe continuation) of thunderstorms in the evening to early morning
hours, though some uncertainty around this given the hi-res are
already struggling to depict current coverage of storms. For today,
storm development is being driven by some WAA but mainly afternoon
heating getting us to convective T, with not as good of upper level
support as yesterday leading to less overall bulk shear. As a
result, not expecting to see the same level of storm organization as
we saw yesterday with transient supercell structures, but can't rule
out some strong storms or even an isolated severe storm today.
Tomorrow looks similar, with better upper level support still to the
north of the area.

Otherwise we will have a threat of isolated flash flooding across
north GA. Soils in the region are saturated from previous rounds of
heavy rainfall over the past week. We could see some areas see
several rounds of heavy rain or Tstorms over the next 36 hours that
put down repeated rounds of 1-2" of rain that could lead to some
flash flood potential. However, we do have time of year going for
us, as foliage hasn't gone dormant and we continue to trend
towards the low flow portion of the year for our river basins from
a climatological perspective, which means we can take a good bit
of rainfall before problems begin.

Lusk

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

No major changes made to the long term forecast. The upper and
mid level trough will continue across the east coast into the
extended forecast. A few shortwave disturbances rounding this
feature will continue to drive heights down further south,
injecting drier air at mid levels further southward as well.

The feature of most importance for north and central Georgia will be
the nearly stationary surface boundary laying across the region.
South of this boundary, PWATs of 1.75" - 2.00" will dominate. To the
north, PWATs around and less than 1.00" can be expected. The
greatest uncertainty will be exactly how far south these mid level
disturbances can push the dry air. Of course, with drier air aloft,
thunderstorm activity will be significantly reduced north of the
boundary. Current model guidance suggests the moisture boundary will
end up across south-central Georgia by Wednesday morning.

In the moist zone, increased cloud cover will persist through the
period. Decreased incoming heating will mean temperatures are
several degrees below climatological norms. Lower temps means
decreased CAPE, meaning storms may not have as much "oomph" to them
as normal summertime pulse, however with the moisture available some
storms may become efficient rain makers with frequent lightning and
gusty winds.

SAM/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Challenging forecast with rain chances throughout most of the TAF
period. Scattered showers and storms have already developed across
northern GA and will continue well into overnight hours. How long
and how much redevelopment happens is uncertain. MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys expected again in the morning hours, though potential
rainfall during the morning hours adds uncertainty to those. Winds
will be from the west through most of the period, though could see
a brief SE switch overnight when mixing will be less prevalent.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in most elements. See above.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  83  69  81 /  70  80  70  50
Atlanta         70  84  69  81 /  70  90  70  60
Blairsville     65  79  65  79 /  80  80  80  50
Cartersville    70  83  69  82 /  80  90  70  50
Columbus        72  88  72  81 /  50  80  70  80
Gainesville     69  82  69  81 /  70  80  70  50
Macon           72  88  72  83 /  50  80  70  70
Rome            71  85  71  85 /  70  80  70  50
Peachtree City  69  86  69  81 /  60  80  70  60
Vidalia         73  91  73  85 /  50  80  70  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
304 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight,
especially for portions of north Georgia. Storms will be capable
of producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out where heavy
rain occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible through next
Friday. Each day, a few storms could become strong to severe,
capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning. Localized flash flooding and flooding of
rivers and streams will also be possible, especially in areas that
receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

GAZ042-201945-
Carroll GA-
309 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Carroll
County through 345 PM EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Bowdon, or 11 miles
southwest of Carrollton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Roopville, Clem, Abilene, John Tanner
State Park, Lowell, Bowdon Junction, Tyus and Blackjack Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 8511 3361 8496 3347 8499 3343 8522
      3343 8529 3360 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 249DEG 19KT 3351 8527

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
644 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

GAZ022-023-202315-
Hall GA-Forsyth GA-
644 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Forsyth and
southwestern Hall Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Cumming, moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Cumming, Flowery Branch, Oakwood, Aqualand Park,
Chestatee, Oscarville, Coal Mountain, Lake Lanier Islands and War
Hill Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 8374 3416 8390 3416 8405 3417 8406
      3416 8407 3416 8420 3428 8419 3434 8397
      3433 8396 3434 8396 3435 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 259DEG 23KT 3421 8409

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH