Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

As close to a pattern change as we're likely to get is on tap as we
enter the weekend. A mid-level ridge has presided over the pattern
in the southeast for the better part of the last month, but its
center has begun to (and will continue to) retrograde back across
the Desert southwest. The eastern edge of the ridge has been the
dominant flow branch over the past day or so, placing the southeast
under deep but weak northwesterly flow. Any weak disturbance
traversing our ridge setup will locally enhance convective
development, and it is possible that we see some organization of
storms into clusters, aided by both their own cold pools and any
remnant outflow boundaries from the past several days of convective
activity. Owing to the position of the Bermuda High along the
Carolina coast, our steady plume of Gulf moisture has held PWATs
steady in the 2-2.25" range. Analyzed SBCAPE was already approaching
3000 J/kg on the 12Z sounding this morning, and yesterday's 00Z
sounding revealed upwards of 4000 J/kg MUCAPE after convective
temperatures were reached. All this to say, conditions are (still)
more than sufficient to support explosive initial upward pulses, and
water-loaded downdrafts will increase the risk for damaging wind
gusts as cores collapse. A Marginal Risk is in place across the
entire CWA for the continued threat for localized damaging gusts.

Moving into Saturday, the center of the 500 mb high is across the
Four Corners region, leaving the southeast in an area of weak flow
aloft. This paves the way for a shortwave trough rounding the edge
of the ridge to push across southward across the OH River Valley
with an attendant frontal boundary in tow. Before FROPA, patchy
diurnally-driven convection is possible until the mid-afternoon.
Certainly not the healthiest front, but before the moisture gradient
atrophies completely, it should bring the most widespread rain
chances we've seen in a few weeks for much of north and portions of
north central Georgia Saturday evening. Currently, CAMS are
depicting a weaker initial line, likely associated with the
prefrontal trough, pushing through to central GA around 18Z
Saturday, and proper frontal convection moving through closer to 00Z
Sunday. The southeastward extent of the front before stalling out
will determine how much of the state feels relief from the utterly
oppressive dewpoints that have plagued us the past week.

A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM today for lingering heat
index values above 105F. It's likely that locales south of I-20
experienced several hours of Heat Advisory criteria before
convective initiation and an abundance of rain-cooled air associated
with collapsing storms. Any clearing following storm dissipation
will result in even more oppressive dewpoints despite potentially
cooler temperatures.

96

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

We start off the long term forecast with a weak frontal boundary
pushing through the forecast area towards south GA Saturday night
into Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing overnight, especially in the vicinity of the front
as it sags south. PoPs during the day on Sunday will largely be
dependent on how far south this front travels. Most of the activity
is expected to remain confined to southern GA where the front
stalls. As previously mentioned, the front will push through much of
the area, resulting in a slight wind shift, before stalling and
waffling around across southern GA for a few days.

Still the biggest forecast question for the long term is how much
and to what extend slightly cooler, drier air filters in behind the
front. Overall, not expecting a drastic change as it is summertime
and moisture will still hang around given northeasterly winds
bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic. Though in looking at
1000-500mb RH, there still remains some inconsistencies as far as
timing in the arrival of lower moisture across north GA. Some
guidance is a little bit more aggressive with bringing this through
much of the region while other guidance is a little more
conservative. Given weak synoptic flow and other smaller-scale
influences, will not deviate too much from what was previously
forecast.

While high moisture content will still hang around despite the
passing front, conditions wont be quite as unbearable early next
week. High temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70 on Monday. This will be the trend for a good
part of the extended forecast, though a gradual uptick in moisture
will be likely as we progress through the period. Diurnal convection
will be possible each day primarily during the afternoon with chances
tapering off at night. The stationary boundary draped across the
south may aid in further development and higher convective chances
next week. We may get another reinforcing boundary pushing through
around mid-week aiding in further rain chances for the area. Though
it's still too soon for specifics...stay tuned.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions generally expected to persist through the TAF
period. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA likely through late
tonight, with a TEMPO in effect from 18-22Z to capture best
window for VRB gusts, frequent lightning, and reduced vsbys at
ATL. More organized SHRA/TSRA likely tomorrow with frontal passage.
FEW to SCT Cu field will continue through the afternoon. Winds
will stay from the W side at less than 10 kts. Patchy MVFR cigs
possible overnight at southern TAF sites. Fog also possible, but
heavily dependent on where heaviest rain falls/sky coverage.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on morning MVFR cigs/vsbys.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  93  72  85 /  30  80  70  70
Atlanta         76  91  73  85 /  30  80  70  60
Blairsville     69  84  67  80 /  50  90  70  60
Cartersville    74  91  70  86 /  40  90  70  50
Columbus        76  91  74  89 /  30  70  70  80
Gainesville     75  90  71  83 /  30  80  70  60
Macon           75  92  73  90 /  30  70  70  80
Rome            76  91  72  90 /  30  90  70  50
Peachtree City  74  91  70  86 /  30  80  70  70
Vidalia         75  90  75  88 /  30  60  60  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...
Floyd...Forsyth...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North
Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walker...Walton...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Whitfield...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1045 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091445-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1045 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory is in effect for all but the mountainous areas of
north Georgia. Widespread heat index values in the triple digits
are expected with several areas reaching values between 105 and
109. Please use caution when exercising or working outdoors and
take frequent breaks.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
again today into tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe
with the damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and brief period
of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Heat Index values up to 105 will be possible again on Saturday
before less extreme conditions settle in next week.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and
evening. Some storms could become strong to severe with damaging
winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
849 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CHICKAMAUGA        34.88N  85.30W
07/08/2022                   WALKER             GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF WHEELER RD AND GORDON ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200800

NM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
854 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

GAZ020-021-032-090130-
Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-
854 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Cherokee, north central Cobb and southeastern Bartow Counties through
930 PM EDT...

At 854 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Little River Landing,
or 8 miles southwest of Canton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Woodstock, Holly Springs, Little River Landing, Hickory Flat,
George Washington Carver St Pk, Lebanon, Kellogg Creek, Oak Grove,
Sutallee, Hobgood Park and Bridgemill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 8471 3428 8464 3423 8438 3413 8441
      3400 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 300DEG 8KT 3417 8462

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
903 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

GAZ007-013-014-021-090130-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Pickens GA-
903 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Cherokee,
southeastern Gilmer, western Dawson and Pickens Counties through 930
PM EDT...

At 903 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Cartecay to Waleska, and moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Jasper, Ball Ground, Nelson, Waleska, East Ellijay, Talking
Rock, Buffington, Amicalola Falls State Park, Union Hill, Sequoyah
Lake, Talona, Marblehill, Fausett Lake, Cartecay, Salacoa Valley,
Blaine, Lake Tamarack, Talmadge and Tate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8420 3434 8427 3417 8440 3436 8464
      3476 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 328DEG 19KT 3464 8439 3434 8455

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
905 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

GAZ008-014>016-022-023-090130-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Union GA-Forsyth GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
905 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Forsyth,
Lumpkin, southwestern White, southeastern Dawson, northwestern Hall
and south central Union Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 905 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Gooch Mountain Shelter to near McKee to Coal Mountain,
and moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Oakwood, Suches, Dougherty, Coal
Mountain, Matt, Silver City, Chestatee, Murrayville, Camp Coleman
Lake, Oscarville, Auraria, Garland, Smithgall Woods Conservation Are,
Porter Springs, Turners Corner, Nimblewill and War Hill Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 8374 3446 8388 3421 8388 3426 8417
      3451 8418 3472 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 279DEG 8KT 3465 8401 3450 8411 3430 8412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
937 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

GAZ014-016-022>025-090200-
Hall GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-Dawson GA-Forsyth GA-White GA-
937 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Forsyth,
Banks, southeastern White, southeastern Dawson, Hall and north
central Jackson Counties through 1000 PM EDT...

At 937 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Leaf to near Lula to near War Hill Park to near
Hightower, and moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Homer, Flowery Branch, Oakwood, Lula, Maysville,
Clermont, Gillsville, Dougherty, Pinefield Crossroads, Coal Mountain,
Mossy Creek, Matt, Aqualand Park, Silver City, Chestatee,
Murrayville, Oscarville, Leaf and Hollingsworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 8362 3453 8363 3451 8367 3444 8362
      3449 8354 3448 8347 3446 8340 3442 8338
      3432 8339 3431 8338 3425 8358 3418 8398
      3436 8426 3441 8398 3449 8382 3460 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 296DEG 28KT 3453 8362 3440 8375 3435 8392 3434
8421

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
954 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

GAZ022-023-032>034-045-090230-
Hall GA-North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-DeKalb GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
954 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern DeKalb,
central Forsyth, Cobb, central Gwinnett, southwestern Hall and
northeastern Fulton Counties through 1030 PM EDT...

At 953 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Coal Mountain to near Buford Dam-Lake Lanier
Parks to near Mount Bethel to near Due West, and moving south at 10
mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Lawrenceville, Cumming, Sandy Springs, Roswell,
Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, Kennesaw, Duluth, Acworth,
Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Powder Springs, Buford, Lilburn, Chamblee and
Norcross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8390 3395 8399 3379 8427 3385 8472
      3408 8471 3406 8442 3421 8414 3434 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 337DEG 10KT 3430 8406 3415 8411 3398 8437 3400
8468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH