Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Atlanta, GA

149 
WWUS52 KFFC 191233
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
833 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

GAC315-191243-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220319T1300Z/
Wilcox GA-
833 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WILCOX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3211 8330 3215 8332 3241 8293 3226 8278
      3220 8286 3219 8288 3218 8287 3213 8293
      3215 8293 3214 8295 3212 8295 3211 8296
      3199 8311 3202 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 235DEG 47KT 3213 8313 

$$

GAC091-175-191300-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220319T1300Z/
Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
833 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAURENS AND CENTRAL DODGE COUNTIES...

At 833 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Godwinsville,
or near Eastman, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Eastman, Cadwell, Chauncey, Union, Jay Bird Springs, Five Points,
Achord, Plainfield, Cedar Grove and Godwinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 8330 3215 8332 3241 8293 3226 8278
      3220 8286 3219 8288 3218 8287 3213 8293
      3215 8293 3214 8295 3212 8295 3211 8296
      3199 8311 3202 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 235DEG 47KT 3213 8313 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

199 
WWUS52 KFFC 191251
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
851 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

GAC091-175-191301-
/O.EXP.KFFC.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220319T1300Z/
Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
851 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAURENS AND
CENTRAL DODGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 AM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3211 8330 3215 8332 3241 8293 3226 8278
      3220 8286 3219 8288 3218 8287 3213 8293
      3215 8293 3214 8295 3212 8295 3211 8296
      3199 8311 3202 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 238DEG 45KT 3224 8293 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
737 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 451 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

88D showing light precip falling across the far northern portions of
the CWA this morning just along a cold front. The front is progged
to move through the area today. In the wake of the frontal boundary,
breezy afternoon winds from the NW will occur. By this afternoon the
only PoP chances should be over the very far SE portions of the FA
where moisture continues to be drawn up ahead of the front and on
the backside of the departing low pressure system. While a strong
storm or two could be possible, severe weather in this area looks
unlikely. That being said, SPC does have Wilcox County northeast to
Emanuel County and south to northern Toombs County under a marginal
risk (1 out of 5) with the very tip of Toombs county under a slight
risk (2 out of 5). The main threats with any activity that does
develop will be strong wind gusts, hail and locally heavy rainfall
with a quarter of an inch to half an inch accumulations possible.

Outside of the far SE the remainder of the area will see a nice dry
post frontal environment with highs will reach the 60s north of I85
and south of I85, ahead of the front, highs will max in the 70s. As
drier air filters into the area cool conditions will occur overnight
with lows falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area.

Tomorrow dry and sunny conditions will prevail as upper level ridging
and a surface high begin to build in from the west. Highs will climb
into the 60s and 70s. Main concern tomorrow will be the dry
conditions leading to fire weather concerns across central GA. Have
used the NBM10PCT to adjust dewpoints to be more indicative of the
environment.

28

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Main concern in the long term period is severe convection on
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Dry conditions initially with upper ridging and confluent flow
aloft. Could see some lingering fire weather concern on Monday as
moisture return appears limited even with sfc E to SEly winds.

To the west, models in strong agreement on closed upper low
developing on Monday over NM and W TX. What happens here depends
greatly on when and where upper low will eject and lift NE. Some
differences on these details but overall, flow aloft appears to
be more south to north oriented by late Tues and assuming
sufficient low level moisture and associated instability arrives,
likely to see line of strong to severe convection move through
Tues Night and/or Wed with damaging winds and a few embedded
mesovortices and with tornadoes possible. Low level shear should
be much stronger than our most recent system yesterday. EC, GEFS
and CMC ensembles show at least ~75% of members with MLCAPE > 500
J/kg and a few (<10%) nearing 1500 J/kg. Will need to monitor
expected environment closely next few days.

As dry punch pushes through in increasingly zonal SW flow,
front/boundary will likely stall over middle or south GA. If
another wave were to develop to the west, front could lift north,
but almost no signal for this seen in forecast members at this
time. Zone of very heavy rainfall could fall just south or into
our far southeastern counties by late Wed or Thurs depending on
evolution of any upstream waves. Further north, clouds and
potentially some dense nighttime fog could develop with lingering
low level moisture and light sfc winds. Bulk of model guidance
indicates longwave trough finally pushing east Friday for clearing
but a few outliers have continued unsettled weather.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z Update...

Low ceilings have begun to improve this morning and should reach
VFR around 12Z as a cold front continues to move through the
terminals. Winds will quickly increase along and behind the
front. Initially out of the WNW around 05-10KT20G and then from
the NW around 15KTG25 peaking in the mid afternoon. Winds will
slowly dissipate around sunset.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on wind speeds and gusts.
High confidence on all other elements.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  41  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         63  41  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     58  37  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    60  37  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        67  44  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     61  41  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           72  43  71  40 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            60  37  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         76  46  71  45 /  50  10   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
535 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-Crawford-
Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-Fannin-Fayette-
Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-
Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-
Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-
Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-
Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-
Schley-South Fulton-Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-
Telfair-Toombs-Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-
Warren-Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
535 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

As a cold front continues to move through the forecast area
today, scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
are possible across the far southeastern portions of central
Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday
and Wednesday. Some of the storms late Tuesday night and Wednesday
could be strong to severe with damaging winds, hail and very heavy
rain. An isolated tornado may also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.