Alert archive / Georgia / River Flood Warnings in 2022

River Flood Warning 85, NWS Atlanta, GA

April 6, 20224 counties in Georgia

NWS Atlanta, GA issued this river flood warning at Apr 6, 2022, 11:43 PM EDT for 4 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 47 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 6, 2022, 11:43 PM EDT (03:43 UTC)
Expired
Apr 8, 2022, 10:48 PM EDT
In force
47 hr
Issued by
NWS Atlanta, GA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Bibb County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Houston County, GA, Peach County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron (BYNG1).

Action stage
13 ft
Minor stage
15 ft
Moderate stage
20 ft
Major stage
24 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02214075, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

602 
WGUS42 KFFC 070343
FLWFFC

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1143 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...The National Weather Service in Peachtree City GA has issued a 
Flood Warning for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

For the Ocmulgee River Basin...including Jackson, Griffin, Juliette, 
East Juliette, Dames Ferry, West Macon, Macon, Clinchfield, Ocmulgee 
River at US 341 at Hawkinsville, Hawkinsville, Echeconnee Creek at 
Houston Road near Byron, Abbeville, McRae, Scotland, Lumber City...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC021-079-153-225-071545-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FL.W.0085.220407T0343Z-000000T0000Z/
/BYNG1.1.ER.220407T0324Z.220407T0330Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1143 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring. This approaches the flood of 
  record.

* WHERE...Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road 
  near Byron.

* WHEN...From this evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 15 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of 
  woodlands occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on Houston 
  Road. Portions of creek access roads and low lying areas will 
  begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 PM EDT Wednesday the stage was 15 feet and rising
    quickly.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:30 PM EDT Wednesday was 15 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 15 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$
6 follow-up statements
120 
WGUS82 KFFC 070741
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Oconee River near Dublin affecting Wilkinson, Laurens, Washington 
  and Johnson Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Towaliga River near Juliette affecting Monroe County.

  Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC167-175-303-319-071945-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0083.220409T1236Z-000000T0000Z/
/DBNG1.1.ER.220409T1236Z.220411T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River near Dublin.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 23.5 feet, Minor flooding spreads further into the 
  woodland areas. The water level begins to flood Rex Miller Road...
  downstream left bank of the Highway 80 bridge. Also Old River 
  Lane...upstream and left bank from the bridge begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 11.3 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Saturday morning and continue rising to a crest of 23.6 feet
    Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 21 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3265 8298 3267 8289 3257 8284 3238 8268
      3236 8277 3254 8293


$$

GAC207-071945-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TOWG1.N.ER.220407T0245Z.220407T0545Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Towaliga River near Juliette.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 18 feet, Minor flooding expands into woodlands and 
  fields upstream and downstream from the gage on Monticello Highway 
  or Georgia Highway 83.  Portions of Byars Road and numerous 
  private access roads near the river will flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 17.2 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 16 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3316 8396 3316 8382 3310 8382 3310 8396


$$

GAC021-079-153-225-071945-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BYNG1.N.ER.220407T0324Z.220407T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road 
  near Byron.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 15 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of 
  woodlands occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on Houston 
  Road. Portions of creek access roads and low lying areas will 
  begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 15.5 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 15 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$

GAC265-317-071945-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 23 feet, Minor flooding expands further into the 
  woodlands and fields along the river upstream and downstream from 
  the gage at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 22.2 feet and slowly
    rising.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$
863 
WGUS82 KFFC 071609
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1209 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

For the Ocmulgee River Basin...including Jackson, Griffin, Juliette, 
East Juliette, Dames Ferry, West Macon, Macon, Clinchfield, Ocmulgee 
River at US 341 at Hawkinsville, Hawkinsville, Echeconnee Creek at 
Houston Road near Byron, Abbeville, McRae, Scotland, Lumber City...
Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC021-079-153-225-080415-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BYNG1.N.ER.220407T0324Z.220407T1530Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1209 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring. This approaches the flood of 
  record.

* WHERE...Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 15 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of 
  woodlands occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on Houston 
  Road. Portions of creek access roads and low lying areas will 
  begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 15.8 feet and rising.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:30 AM EDT Thursday was 15.8 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 15 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    15.9 feet on 02/08/2020.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$
228 
WGUS42 KFFC 080038
FLWFFC

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC021-079-153-225-081245-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BYNG1.N.ER.220407T0324Z.220408T0015Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring. This approaches the flood of 
  record.

* WHERE...Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 17 feet, Minor flooding expands into the woodland 
  areas upstream and downstream from the gage on Houston Road. 
  Larger portions of creek access roads will flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM EDT Thursday the stage was 17.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:15 PM EDT Thursday was 17.5 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 15 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$
322 
WGUS82 KFFC 081009
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

  Oconee River near Oconee affecting Wilkinson and Washington 
  Counties.

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

For the Ocmulgee River Basin...including Jackson, Griffin, Juliette, 
East Juliette, Dames Ferry, West Macon, Macon, Clinchfield, Ocmulgee 
River at US 341 at Hawkinsville, Hawkinsville, Echeconnee Creek at 
Houston Road near Byron, Abbeville, McRae, Scotland, Lumber City...
Moderate flooding is forecast.
For the Oconee River Basin...including Penfield, Milledgeville, 
Oconee, Oconee, McIntyre, Big Sandy Creek at US 441 near Irwinton, 
Oconee, Dublin, Mount Vernon...Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC021-079-153-225-082215-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BYNG1.N.ER.220407T0324Z.220408T0345Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road 
  near Byron.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 17 feet, Minor flooding expands into the woodland 
  areas upstream and downstream from the gage on Houston Road. 
  Larger portions of creek access roads will flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:45 AM EDT Friday the stage was 17.3 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:45 AM EDT Friday was 17.8 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 15 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$

GAC303-319-082215-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OCOG1.N.ER.220406T1727Z.220408T0930Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Oconee River near Oconee.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 20 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant 
  flooding occurs in the woodlands and wetlands along the river 
  upstream and downstream from a gage located by a dirt boat ramp on 
  the west side of Avant Mine off Adams Road in Washington County. 
  The water will be around two feet deep around an elevated USGS 
  gage house. The dirt road by the boat ramp will begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:45 AM EDT Friday the stage was 19.7 feet and steady.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 18 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 8316 3302 8313 3296 8304 3288 8298
      3284 8303 3292 8311


$$

GAC265-317-082215-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T2145Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 25 feet, Moderate flooding occurs in the woodlands 
  and fields along the river upstream and downstream from the gage 
  at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 AM EDT Friday the stage was 25.6 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 AM EDT Friday was 27.5 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$
352 
WGUS82 KFFC 081642
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1242 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&


GAC021-079-153-225-090445-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BYNG1.N.ER.220407T0324Z.220408T0345Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1242 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road 
  near Byron.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 15 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of 
  woodlands occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on Houston 
  Road. Portions of creek access roads and low lying areas will 
  begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 PM EDT Friday the stage was 16.3 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 15 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$
246 
WGUS82 KFFC 090248
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

GAC021-079-153-225-090400-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220409T0248Z/
/BYNG1.N.ER.220407T0324Z.220408T0345Z.220409T0148Z.NR/
1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near 
  Byron.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 PM EDT Friday the stage was 14.9 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.


&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 6, 5:41 PM EDT, 6 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 6, 5:41 PM EDT, 6 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
541 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.UPDATE...

Updated for the expansion of the Flood Watch.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 500 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022/

UPDATE...

Updated to add the TOR watch for north Georgia.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022/

.Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

No major changes to thinking in the short term forecast, so have
included very in-depth previous discussion from Thiem.

Mesoanalysis shows very saturated environment under FEW/SCT cloud
deck, allowing for ample insolation with temps climbing into the
80s, with Tds in the 70s. This sets the stage with SBCAPE values
3000+ j/kg, ample instability for any storms that fire, in tandem
with impressive mid- lvl lapse rates and mid-lvl flow. Current
hazards for central Georgia remain large hail, gusty to damaging
winds from downbursts, tornadoes and bouts of heavy rain.

Stratus and Fog remain resilient over N GA, with metro Atlanta
seeing cloud decks as low as 1000ft, with FG/DZ and lowered
visibilities just now lifting, hindering CAPE development. This
has setup a pseudo-front along the I-20 corridor with large temp
disparity. However, looking to this evening, although CAMS have
been all over the place in spatial coverage and timing of frontal
passage. However, severe weather potential for N GA remains on
track with some form of a QLCS to enter NW GA by 23-02z. As
mentioned, see previous discussion for additional info:

Morgan

Previous Short Term Discussion Below...

One Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook down, one more to go!

Despite a strong quasi-linear convective system sweeping through the
forecast area today, with widespread reports of wind damage and over
a dozen noted tornadic debris signatures, the area remains in a
general warm sector regime with abundant low-level warmth and
moisture. In the mid-layers (500-700 hPA), very dry air was left
behind following the storm system, which is helping to keep
scattered light sprinkles/showers from growing more upscale,
however, by noon broad southwesterly flow will increase moisture in
these levels as well and boosting PWATs from near an inch in this
morning's special 06Z sounding to back over an inch and a half by
the afternoon for Central Georgia, setting the stage for another
potential round of severe weather.

Central Georgia, this afternoon into the early evening...

Abundant moisture return by the afternoon in the low- to mid-levels,
is going to be timed with a northward moving coastal, baroclinic
boundary and a very weak mid-level shortwave trough. This setup will
result in a rather abnormal setup for severe weather for this
region, but one that has worrisome combination of severe parameters:

* A weak shortwave will provide lower-level lift across the region,
  which will act as a trigger mechanism for convective development
  and will cool the mid-levels between 500-700 hPa, creating lapse
  rates near 7 C/km.
* With zonal-flow in place in the mid-levels with the rapid invasion
  of the shortwave later in the afternoon, offsetting effects of
  advection warmer mid-level air won't be as present as they
  otherwise would in a more classic Southeastern SVR setup.
* Cooling in the mid-levels, combined with warm and very moist air
  advecting in off the Gulf will create surface-based CAPE values
  between 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon.
* In general, wind profiles aloft are rather weak (0-6 km shear
  values are below 30 kts) due to the weak nature of the shortwave
  likely resulting in shorter-lived, popcorn-like cells that
  collapse on themselves after approx an hour with very little wind
  shear between 2-6 km.
* However, in the lowest 2 km, wind shear is decent with quarter-
  circle hodographs providing good streamwise vorticity into
  developing right-moving storms and increasing the potential for
  rotating thunderstorms and spin-up circulations.

The result of all this in an environment in Central Georgia this
afternoon with no strong organizing trigger mechanism typical for a
more organized severe thunderstorm development, although mesoscale
boundaries or bands may change this. However, the parameters are
good for shorter-lived (1-2 hours) storms capable of large hail and
rapidly developing short-lived tornadic circulations. This threat
followed by cooler, drier air in the mid-levels allowing evaporative
cooling which combined with water loading will present
downburst/microburst potential as storm updrafts collapse.
Additionally, with 1-3 inches of rain previously fallen, a flooding
threat will be present anywhere heavier rain persists for prolonged
periods of time.

North Georgia, this evening into the overnight hours...

In north Georgia, a strong cold front from a more organized
synoptic system is expected to surge into for northwest Georgia just
before sunset. This will provide a stout triggering mechanism for
storm development, with stronger winds aloft more supportive of
longer-lived supercell development. The dynamics for north Georgia
during this time is everything that's missing for Central Georgia
during the afternoon. However, despite the better dynamics the
thermodynamics are more lacking.

* The moisture return for north Georgia will be less abundant
  resulting in PWATs just above an inch for the area, likely
  resulting in convective storms struggling to become more robust.
* Storms in the south earlier in the day may rob some surface-based
  instability in the region. With that said, forecast values of
  surface-based CAPE are still expected to be above 2000 J/kg, but
  begin falling after 6 PM.
* The timing of the cold front may keep storms elevated after 8 PM,
  limiting severe potential.
* With these factors in mind, low-level wind profiles are much more
  favorable to tornadic supercells if they can overcome the drier
  air aloft. Hodographs show sickle-cell structures through 4-6 km,
  with decent, but not perfect, storm-relative streamwise vorticity.
* Dry air in the mid levels, could cause strong evaporative
  cooling fueled downbursts in any robust storms that do form.
  These winds combined with the storm motion could create several
  instances of damaging wind gusts.

All in all, please stay aware of any watches or warnings issued for
your area through the day and into tonight. Please have a plan of
action ready in case it is needed.

Following the cold front tonight, more tranquil weather is in store
with clearing skies, breezy NW winds, and highs generally in the 60s
by Thursday.

Thiem

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Anomalous temperatures still on track for the weekend. Temps should
begin to slowly moderate towards normal on Sunday. Friday and
Saturday night's lows should be 5 to 15 degrees below normal.
Saturday's highs will range from 15 to 25 degrees below normal for
this time of year.

Frost/Freeze products will likely be needed Friday night and
Saturday night.

Previous Long Term Discussion Below...

The impressive, expansive upper trough that fueled our final round
of active weather continues to dig further down across the
southeast, with a tight pressure gradient on its outer edge (~20-22
mb difference across GA). As such, gusty gradient winds will be
possible through Saturday afternoon when the trough begins to lift
across the mid-Atlantic states. Several shortwave disturbances
rounding the inner edge of the trough will lead to increased cloud
cover and brief bursts of rain across north GA on Friday into
Saturday. A surface high from over the Gulf and stout upper ridging
break the active pattern as they settle in across the southeast on
Sunday to round off the weekend and take us through the beginning of
the work week.

Temperatures will be quite cool for April standards following the
cold frontal passage on Thursday night. Have added the potential for
areas of frost on Sunday morning, when minimum temperatures are
coolest and winds begin to calm. Highs will stall out in the mid-50s
to 60s, 12-15 degrees below average; lows through the weekend will
be in the 30s, about 5-10 degrees below average. As the surface high
begins to drift across the southeast Sunday, winds shift to be
primarily from the southeast, and temperatures recover to seasonable
highs in the 70s-80s and lows in the 40s.

96

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Metro TAF sites socked in stubborn LIFR/IFR cigs, expecting
gradual improvement through the afternoon as daytime mixing
occurs. Have SHRA starting at 18z as precip overspreads the area
along a shortwave, with low-end potential of TS, but confidence is
too low at this time to include. TSRA will be possible again tonight
after 00z as a cold front pushes through metro TAF sites. After
frontal passage, winds turn NW by 08z tonight, remaining elevated
between 9-13kts. Should go VFR cigs/vsbys tomorrow between 11-14z
as drier air rushes in.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Low to medium on all elements

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  68  43  61 /  70   0   0   5
Atlanta         52  66  43  58 /  90   0   0   5
Blairsville     45  62  36  52 / 100   5   5  40
Cartersville    47  66  41  57 /  90   0   0  10
Columbus        55  69  44  64 /  70   5   0   0
Gainesville     52  65  43  57 /  90   0   0  10
Macon           57  72  43  67 /  70   5   0   0
Rome            49  66  41  57 /  90   0   0  10
Peachtree City  50  67  41  60 /  80   0   0   5
Vidalia         63  72  48  68 /  90  30   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following zones:
Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...
Harris...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach...Pike...
Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Tornado Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Catoosa...
Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Clayton...Coweta...Crawford...
Crisp...Dade...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Fannin...Fayette...
Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Hancock...Harris...Heard...
Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...
Putnam...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walker...Warren...Washington...Webster...
Wheeler...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Morgan
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 6, 5:01 AM EDT, 18 hours 42 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-070915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
area this afternoon and overnight. Some storms may become strong
to severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail. A tornado or two are possible. Localized flooding and flash
flooding is possible, especially in areas that received heavy
rainfall on Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation, especially this
afternoon across central Georgia. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 6, 10:55 PM EDT, 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1055 PM EDT WED APR 06 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             3 SSW LITHIA SPRINGS    33.76N  84.68W
04/06/2022  E1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            GA   PUBLIC

            CALLER ESTIMATES QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR LITHIA SPRING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200367

LUSK
Local storm report, Apr 6, 11:01 PM EDT, 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1101 PM EDT WED APR 06 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     TORNADO          KITE                    32.69N  82.51W
04/06/2022                   JOHNSON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AROUND THE KITE
            COMMUNITY PER EM. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200368

LUSK
Special weather statement, Apr 6, 11:05 PM EDT, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1105 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ042>044-052-053-070330-
Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-South Fulton GA-
1105 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Carroll,
western Douglas, north central Heard and northwestern Coweta Counties
through 1130 PM EDT...

At 1104 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Abilene to Clem to Roosterville, and moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to penny sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Douglasville, Carrollton, Villa Rica, Whitesburg, Roopville, Plant
Yates, Byers Crossroads, Hannah, Bill Arp, Seaton Lake, Fairplay,
Clem, Abilene, Winston, Lowell, Plant Wansley and Treasure Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 8475 3356 8478 3342 8492 3337 8520
      3350 8509 3368 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 252DEG 37KT 3362 8502 3352 8503 3341 8516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
Special weather statement, Apr 6, 11:15 PM EDT, 28 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1115 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ033-034-045-046-070345-
North Fulton GA-Rockdale GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
1115 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Rockdale, DeKalb, southwestern Gwinnett and eastern Fulton Counties
through 1145 PM EDT...

At 1115 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Decatur, moving east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Decatur, Snellville, Clarkston, Stone Mountain, Avondale
Estates, Lithonia, Pine Lake, Tucker, Belvedere Park, North Decatur,
North Druid Hills, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta, Candler-Mcafee, Druid
Hills, Lakeview Estates, North Atlanta, Mountain Park, Belmont and
Sweet Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3370 8439 3384 8439 3388 8404 3378 8401
      3367 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 267DEG 30KT 3377 8432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
Local storm report, Apr 6, 11:19 PM EDT, 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1119 PM EDT WED APR 06 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W BYRON               32.65N  83.77W
04/06/2022                   PEACH              GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            200 BLOCK OF HWY 42 COVERED IN WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200369

LUSK
Special weather statement, Apr 6, 11:40 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1140 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ052-053-066-067-070415-
Coweta GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-Meriwether GA-
1140 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Meriwether, Heard, northeastern Troup and southwestern Coweta
Counties through 1215 AM EDT...

At 1140 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Franklin, moving east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, Franklin, Hogansville, Grantville, Centralhatchee, Moreland,
Lone Oak, East Newnan, Corinth, Powers Crossroads, Handy, Texas and
Harrisonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8524 3336 8518 3340 8476 3330 8476
      3314 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 266DEG 40KT 3326 8510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Atlanta, GA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 6, 8:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCEmanuel, Johnson, Laurens, Montgomery, Toombs, Treutlen and 1 more48 min
Apr 6, 8:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCGilmer, Gordon, Murray, Whitfield28 min
Apr 6, 8:19 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCFloyd26 min
Apr 6, 8:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCFannin25 min
Apr 6, 8:22 PM EDTTornado WarningFFCEmanuel, Johnson23 min
Apr 6, 8:36 PM EDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFFCEmanuel12 min
Apr 6, 8:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCDawson, Gilmer, Pickens30 min
Apr 6, 8:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCFannin35 min
Apr 6, 8:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCToombs18 min
Apr 6, 9:14 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCDawson, Gilmer, Lumpkin31 min
Apr 6, 9:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCUnion29 min
Apr 6, 9:26 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCHaralson34 min
Apr 6, 10:06 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCCobb, Douglas24 min
Apr 6, 10:11 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCDawson, Lumpkin34 min
Apr 6, 10:23 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCCarroll37 min
Apr 6, 10:32 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCDouglas, Fulton28 min
Apr 6, 10:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCCobb, Douglas, Fulton24 min
Apr 6, 11:05 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCCarroll, Douglas25 min
Apr 6, 11:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCDeKalb30 min
Apr 6, 11:40 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCCoweta, Heard35 min
Apr 6, 11:49 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCMonroe23 hr
Apr 7, 12:15 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCClayton, Coweta, Fayette30 min
Apr 7, 12:42 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCCobb, Douglas9 hr
Apr 7, 12:45 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCHenry, Newton, Spalding30 min
Apr 7, 12:49 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCBaldwin, Washington, Wilkinson41 hr
Apr 7, 1:09 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningFFCClayton, Fayette, Henry, Newton, Rockdale5 hr
Apr 7, 1:24 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCButts, Jasper36 min
Apr 7, 1:28 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCLamar, Pike, Upson32 min
Apr 7, 1:35 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCForsyth25 min
Apr 7, 2:04 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCBarrow, Jackson26 min
Apr 7, 2:18 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCNewton, Rockdale4 hr
Apr 7, 2:54 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCChattahoochee, Muscogee50 hr
Apr 7, 2:54 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCClarke, Greene, Oconee30 hr
Apr 7, 3:48 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCWilkes8 hr
Apr 7, 4:36 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCBleckley, Pulaski24 min
Apr 7, 5:40 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCPutnam13 hr
Apr 7, 5:44 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCJones11 hr
Apr 7, 5:54 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCDooly64 min
Apr 7, 6:26 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCCoweta, Fayette, Spalding15 hr
Apr 7, 6:32 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCCarroll3 hr
Apr 7, 6:41 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCTelfair34 min
Apr 7, 11:25 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCFayette, Spalding30 hr
Apr 7, 12:45 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCDooly17 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Georgia, 2022Every river flood warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.